人形机器人：当超级大脑拥有了物理躯体

格上财富12-18

作者：泽平宏观来源：泽平宏观展望（ID：renzepinghg）前段时间，小鹏新发布了人形机器人，因为走路太像人，被网上质疑是“真人假扮”。小鹏不得不现场剪开机器人的腿部皮肤。看来人形机器人真的是越来越像人了。人形机器人，已经不再是科幻电影，而是AI大模型商业落地的载体。如果说AI大模型是让机器拥有了“大脑”，那么人形机器人就是给了AI一个“身体”，走入物理世界，服务于人类社会。人形机器人对我们有...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251218213634a6b2d9af&s=b><strong>格上财富</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：泽平宏观来源：泽平宏观展望（ID：renzepinghg）前段时间，小鹏新发布了人形机器人，因为走路太像人，被网上质疑是“真人假扮”。小鹏不得不现场剪开机器人的腿部皮肤。看来人形机器人真的是越来越像人了。人形机器人，已经不再是科幻电影，而是AI大模型商业落地的载体。如果说AI大模型是让机器拥有了“大脑”，那么人形机器人就是给了AI一个“身体”，走入物理世界，服务于人类社会。人形机器人对我们有...</p>\n\n<a 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Body","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDX":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"AI":0.61,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"TSLA":1.88,"XPEV":1.86,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDA":0.9,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"09868":1.86,"09880":0.9,"NVDS":0.6},"content_text":"作者：泽平宏观来源：泽平宏观展望（ID：renzepinghg）前段时间，小鹏新发布了人形机器人，因为走路太像人，被网上质疑是“真人假扮”。小鹏不得不现场剪开机器人的腿部皮肤。看来人形机器人真的是越来越像人了。人形机器人，已经不再是科幻电影，而是AI大模型商业落地的载体。如果说AI大模型是让机器拥有了“大脑”，那么人形机器人就是给了AI一个“身体”，走入物理世界，服务于人类社会。人形机器人对我们有什么用？我认为将经历三个阶段：第一阶段，接管危险、重复、繁重的工作。这是目前技术最接近落地的领域。比如在汽车制造环节，特斯拉的Optimus已经学会了分装电池，还能在故障中自我恢复；优必选的Walker S已经在蔚来、吉利的工厂里实训，能搬运、质检。宝马美国的工厂里，Figure 01已经开始试运行。机器人在to B的、专用的场景有望率先突破，未来2-5年人形机器人有望使用于汽车装配线、物流仓库、高危巡检等场景，足够精准、可靠。逐步解放人，让人类从流水线的部分高危、枯燥的环境中解脱出来，从事更有创造力的工作。第二阶段，我认为是“家庭伙伴”，从工具进化为家人。想象一下，未来的机器人不再是冰冷的机器，而是像宇树科技发布的Unitree一样，9.9万元起，价格降到了更普惠，“像买车一样买机器人”。人形机器人它能帮你颠勺做饭，陪护老人、辅导孩子。这不仅仅是家务替代，也是情感陪伴。这是万亿级、普惠型的大市场，高盛预测2035年这部分市场规模将达1500亿美元。第三阶段是人形机器人的终局：硅基生命。未来人形机器人的AI大脑与机械身体完美融合，或许拥有对世界的理解能力，能适应所有人类环境。人类将不再受限于肉体凡胎，可以与机器人的协作，实现生产力的指数级爆发，甚至一起去探索火星。大家不仅关心人形机器人“能不能行”，还关心“多便宜”。过去机器人为贵。波士顿动力的Atlas一度要几百万美元。但2025年，成本正在大幅下降。单台人形机器人的制造成本，已经从过去的上百、几十万美元断崖式下降。这意味着以后的人形机器人，或许比买一辆车还便宜。当价格降到临界点，人形机器人就能成为人人都能买得起的大众消费品，一场万亿级别的“物种爆发”到来。展望未来，人形机器人量产普及，还要克服三大难点。首先是“数据孤岛”。训练机器人需要海量的“视觉-语言-动作”这样的三元组数据，目前这类高质量数据极其稀缺，与图文数据的亿级规模相差百倍。面对“数据贫血”，现在有一种新的方案，比如英伟达推的Isaac Sim平台，就是让机器人在虚拟世界里一天经历人类一年的训练量，即使摔倒一万次也不浪费一分钱，然后再迁移到现实世界。这就叫“Sim-to-Real”技术路线，实现智能指数级进化。第二大难点是要突破“精密制造”瓶颈。现在有些关键零部件的成本还比较高、国产替代率比较低，比如执行系统的行星滚柱丝杠，高端市场仍被瑞士GSA等海外巨头垄断；谐波减速器方面，绿的谐波是国产龙头，但在高端领域仍受日本哈默纳科影响。这些都需要技术突围。还有一个最核心的战场在“手”上。灵巧手是机器人与物理世界交互的“最后一厘米”，比如特斯拉Optimus Gen 2刚发布时候的手部自由度已经达到11个，现在的自由度翻倍至22个，接近人类手部27个自由度的灵活度水平，只有手更灵活了，才能适配更多应用场景。第三个难点，是人形机器人距离“通用智能”到底有多远，目前的机器人主要是专场景专用，离真正的“通用”、什么都能干、自主学习还有很长的路要走。通用智能的奇点降临，必须是机器人的AI大脑与硬件身体两大技术革命。硬件进化到生物级的平稳、坚固、灵敏，大脑真正理解物理世界的逻辑、学习进化，二者深度融合。最后，我认为，人形机器人将是一场激动人心的技术革命，本质上是人类为AI打造的“物理容器”。当超级大脑拥有了钢铁之躯，一切皆有可能。未来会有泡沫，当下也很稚嫩，会有无数公司前仆后继。但具身智能的大趋势不可逆转。我认为，人形机器人是继智能手机、新能源汽车之后的下一代超级终端。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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