内存价格降不下来了 27年NV顶级GPU平台就要365TB HBM4e内存

快科技2025-12-20

快科技12月20日消息，最近内存价格大涨的消息让PC玩家很不爽，现货价涨了两三倍，16GB内存条已经1000+起步了，再加上SSD、显卡甚至CPU的涨价，现在装机成本大涨。大家最关心的问题就是内存价格什么时候降下来？此前业界的预期是2026年下半年，但是随着上游厂商释放的消息越来越悲观，最新预期是缺货涨价到2027年。然而27年就能降下来了吗？并不是，实际上大家想错了，TechInsights...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251220221133a6bacb36&s=b><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快科技12月20日消息，最近内存价格大涨的消息让PC玩家很不爽，现货价涨了两三倍，16GB内存条已经1000+起步了，再加上SSD、显卡甚至CPU的涨价，现在装机成本大涨。大家最关心的问题就是内存价格什么时候降下来？此前业界的预期是2026年下半年，但是随着上游厂商释放的消息越来越悲观，最新预期是缺货涨价到2027年。然而27年就能降下来了吗？并不是，实际上大家想错了，TechInsights...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251220221133a6bacb36&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0640476718.USD","symbol_name":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) 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NV's top GPU platform in 27 years requires 365TB HBM4e memory","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SNVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDA":1.91,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6},"content_text":"快科技12月20日消息，最近内存价格大涨的消息让PC玩家很不爽，现货价涨了两三倍，16GB内存条已经1000+起步了，再加上SSD、显卡甚至CPU的涨价，现在装机成本大涨。大家最关心的问题就是内存价格什么时候降下来？此前业界的预期是2026年下半年，但是随着上游厂商释放的消息越来越悲观，最新预期是缺货涨价到2027年。然而27年就能降下来了吗？并不是，实际上大家想错了，TechInsights分析师James Sanders给出的看法直接浇了一盆凉水。根据以前的周期预测，内存价格应该在今年增长速度放缓，26或者27年收缩，但这一次不一样，2026年内存价格将达到峰值，2027年也只是维持价格稳定（而不是下降），2028年还会再次上涨。也就是说未来三年内存价格只会是上涨-维持高位-然后继续上涨的情况，而不是之前那种涨了跌回来再涨的趋势。这一次为什么会出现周期律的不同？答案也不意外，又要说到AI市场需求了，尤其是内存厂商正在将产能转向HBM内存，而消费级内存并没有什么需求增长。Sanders还举了一个例子，27年下半年NVIDIA就要发售Rubin Ultra NL576这样的高性能AI机柜了，它由576个Rubin GPU芯片组成，每组GPU配备了1TB容量的HBM4e内存，光这一个就需要365TB的HBM4e内存。要知道10月份的GTC大会上，黄仁勋还提到Blackwell及Rubin系列的订单额已经有5000亿美元，未来5个季度他们就要交付2000万GPU芯片，想想这是多大的内存需求吧。当然，原文还提到了一个重要问题，那就是在当前需求爆发的时候，美光等上游厂商并不急着增产，反而把紧缺的产能转向价格更高的HBM内存，虽然这在商业上很合理，但这样做无疑是在助长内存缺货、涨价。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2592146395","isCrawlerRequest":true}