就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？

华尔街见闻2025-12-19

本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

香蕉大皮也大
2025-12-19
香蕉大皮也大
mark

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2592138624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-19 08:34","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2592138624","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-19 08:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0345770993.USD","symbol_name":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680","article_id":"2592138624","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592138624","pubTimestamp":1766104454,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","GS":"高盛","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","OEX":"标普100","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H"},"translate_title":"Just today! The largest option in history expires, and U.S. stocks will usher in a \"crazy day\"?","themeId":"c9d0e1a8d9562f73ca943c431257a803","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe8893708608c3ca980a824ed5166180","symbols_score_info":{"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":1.87,"GS":1.91,"OEX":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":1.87,"SPXU":0.6},"content_text":"本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义价值的期权合约到期，创下历史最高纪录。这一天被称为所谓的“四巫日”，即股指期货、股指期权、个股期货和个股期权同时到期的日子，这种集中到期通常会放大市场交易量和波动性。在这次创纪录的到期事件中，约5万亿美元的风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。高盛指出，虽然12月的期权到期通常是全年规模最大的，但本次的规模超过了以往所有记录，其名义风险敞口相当于罗素3000指数总市值的约10.2%。这一事件发生在美股年内已录得显著涨幅的背景下。标普500指数今年已上涨约15%，周四交投于6770点附近。创纪录的期权到期，可能成为年底行情中的一个关键变量，为市场增添了显著的不确定性。史上最大规模的到期事件此次期权到期之所以备受关注，核心在于其前所未有的规模。根据高盛分析师John Marshall的估算，超过7.1万亿美元的名义风险敞口将在今天集中到期。这一天在华尔街被称为“四巫日”（quadruple witching），每年仅发生四次，分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。在这一天，四类衍生品合约同时结算，迫使交易员和做市商进行大量的平仓、展期或对冲操作，从而导致交易活动异常活跃。高盛的数据显示，仅与标普500指数相关的零日到期期权（0DTE）的交易量就已达到历史高位，占期权总交易量的62%以上，这进一步加剧了当日的复杂性。波动性加剧还是“钉住”效应？如此巨量的期权到期，可能给市场带来两种截然不同的影响。一方面是可能加剧市场波动。KKM Financial的创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Kilburg表示：“我预计交易量将远超正常水平，因为期权交易员们需要了结2025年的盈亏。”他特别指出，标普500指数的6800点是一个重要的行权价位，市场将观察多头能否在该水平附近成功防守。另一方面，巨量期权也可能产生“钉住”（pin）效应，反而抑制价格波动。高盛在其报告中解释，如果大量期权合约的行权价恰好等于或非常接近标的资产的当前市价（即“平价期权”），做市商为了对冲自身风险敞口而进行的操作，可能会将股价“拉”向这个被大量交易的行权价，导致股价在收盘时稳定在该水平附近。高盛发现，包括GeneDx Holdings、BILL Holdings、Avis Budget Group和GameStop在内的个股，其即将到期的期权占其日均交易量的比例很高，因此可能更容易出现“钉住”现象。关键技术位与市场情绪从技术层面看，市场正处在一个微妙的平衡点。根据期权分析机构SpotGamma的报告，标普500指数目前处于从6700点到6900点的“负伽马”（negative gamma）区间，这意味着市场本身倾向于放大波动，即上涨时加速上涨，下跌时加速下跌。SpotGamma将6800点视为关键的“风险枢轴”（Risk Pivot）。报告指出，如果指数能够收复并站稳在6800点之上，可能被视为开启“圣诞老人行情”的信号。然而，如果指数维持在6800点以下，下行压力将占据主导，且下方缺乏有力的技术支撑区域。该机构警告称，即使市场反弹至6800点，也可能轻易回落，只有当指数明确突破该水平后，卖出看跌期权的资金才会进场提供新的支撑。对于寻求交易机会的投资者，SpotGamma建议，若看涨，可考虑12月31日到期的6900点附近的看涨期权价差策略；若看跌，则建议选择明年2月或3月到期的看跌期权，以规避假期期间过快的时间价值损耗。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":512421417182104,"gmtCreate":1766129924484,"gmtModify":1766129926730,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090487371938690","authorIdStr":"4090487371938690"},"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512421417182104","repostId":2592138624,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2592138624","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1766104454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2592138624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-19 08:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592138624","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。</p></blockquote><p>本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。</p><p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义价值的期权合约到期，创下历史最高纪录。这一天被称为所谓的“四巫日”，即股指期货、股指期权、个股期货和个股期权同时到期的日子，这种集中到期通常会放大市场交易量和波动性。</p><p><strong>在这次创纪录的到期事件中，约5万亿美元的风险敞口与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。</strong>高盛指出，虽然12月的期权到期通常是全年规模最大的，但本次的规模超过了以往所有记录，其名义风险敞口相当于罗素3000指数总市值的约10.2%。</p><p>这一事件发生在美股年内已录得显著涨幅的背景下。标普500指数今年已上涨约15%，周四<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">交投</a>于6770点附近。创纪录的期权到期，可能成为年底行情中的一个关键变量，为市场增添了显著的不确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_3508771893\">史上最大规模的到期事件</h2><p>此次期权到期之所以备受关注，核心在于其前所未有的规模。根据高盛分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMSB\">John Marshall</a>的估算，超过7.1万亿美元的名义风险敞口将在今天集中到期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12258f389f33008bc3ba75500181a02b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p><strong>这一天在华尔街被称为“四巫日”（quadruple witching），每年仅发生四次，分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。</strong></p><p>在这一天，四类衍生品合约同时结算，迫使交易员和做市商进行大量的平仓、展期或对冲操作，从而导致交易活动异常活跃。高盛的数据显示，仅与标普500指数相关的零日到期期权（0DTE）的交易量就已达到历史高位，占期权总交易量的62%以上，这进一步加剧了当日的复杂性。</p><h2 id=\"id_1711239824\">波动性加剧还是“钉住”效应？</h2><p>如此巨量的期权到期，可能给市场带来两种截然不同的影响。</p><p>一方面是可能加剧市场波动。KKM Financial的创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Kilburg表示：“我预计交易量将远超正常水平，因为期权交易员们需要了结2025年的盈亏。”他特别指出，标普500指数的6800点是一个重要的行权价位，市场将观察多头能否在该水平附近成功防守。</p><p>另一方面，巨量期权也可能产生“钉住”（pin）效应，反而抑制价格波动。高盛在其报告中解释，如果大量期权合约的行权价恰好等于或非常接近标的资产的当前市价（即“平价期权”），做市商为了对冲自身风险敞口而进行的操作，可能会将股价“拉”向这个被大量交易的行权价，导致股价在收盘时稳定在该水平附近。</p><p>高盛发现，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WGS\">GeneDx Holdings</a>、BILL Holdings、Avis Budget Group和GameStop在内的个股，其即将到期的期权占其日均交易量的比例很高，因此可能更容易出现“钉住”现象。</p><h2 id=\"id_2740955182\">关键技术位与市场情绪</h2><p>从技术层面看，市场正处在一个微妙的平衡点。根据期权分析机构SpotGamma的报告，标普500指数目前处于从6700点到6900点的“负伽马”（negative gamma）区间，这意味着市场本身倾向于放大波动，即上涨时加速上涨，下跌时加速下跌。</p><p>SpotGamma将6800点视为关键的“风险枢轴”（Risk Pivot）。报告指出，如果指数能够收复并站稳在6800点之上，可能被视为开启“圣诞老人行情”的信号。然而，如果指数维持在6800点以下，下行压力将占据主导，且下方缺乏有力的技术支撑区域。该机构警告称，即使市场反弹至6800点，也可能轻易回落，只有当指数明确突破该水平后，卖出看跌期权的资金才会进场提供新的支撑。</p><p>对于寻求交易机会的投资者，SpotGamma建议，若看涨，可考虑12月31日到期的6900点附近的看涨期权价差策略；若看跌，则建议选择明年2月或3月到期的看跌期权，以规避假期期间过快的时间价值损耗。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-19 08:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","GS":"高盛","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","OEX":"标普100","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2592138624","content_text":"本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义价值的期权合约到期，创下历史最高纪录。这一天被称为所谓的“四巫日”，即股指期货、股指期权、个股期货和个股期权同时到期的日子，这种集中到期通常会放大市场交易量和波动性。在这次创纪录的到期事件中，约5万亿美元的风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。高盛指出，虽然12月的期权到期通常是全年规模最大的，但本次的规模超过了以往所有记录，其名义风险敞口相当于罗素3000指数总市值的约10.2%。这一事件发生在美股年内已录得显著涨幅的背景下。标普500指数今年已上涨约15%，周四交投于6770点附近。创纪录的期权到期，可能成为年底行情中的一个关键变量，为市场增添了显著的不确定性。史上最大规模的到期事件此次期权到期之所以备受关注，核心在于其前所未有的规模。根据高盛分析师John Marshall的估算，超过7.1万亿美元的名义风险敞口将在今天集中到期。这一天在华尔街被称为“四巫日”（quadruple witching），每年仅发生四次，分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。在这一天，四类衍生品合约同时结算，迫使交易员和做市商进行大量的平仓、展期或对冲操作，从而导致交易活动异常活跃。高盛的数据显示，仅与标普500指数相关的零日到期期权（0DTE）的交易量就已达到历史高位，占期权总交易量的62%以上，这进一步加剧了当日的复杂性。波动性加剧还是“钉住”效应？如此巨量的期权到期，可能给市场带来两种截然不同的影响。一方面是可能加剧市场波动。KKM Financial的创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Kilburg表示：“我预计交易量将远超正常水平，因为期权交易员们需要了结2025年的盈亏。”他特别指出，标普500指数的6800点是一个重要的行权价位，市场将观察多头能否在该水平附近成功防守。另一方面，巨量期权也可能产生“钉住”（pin）效应，反而抑制价格波动。高盛在其报告中解释，如果大量期权合约的行权价恰好等于或非常接近标的资产的当前市价（即“平价期权”），做市商为了对冲自身风险敞口而进行的操作，可能会将股价“拉”向这个被大量交易的行权价，导致股价在收盘时稳定在该水平附近。高盛发现，包括GeneDx Holdings、BILL Holdings、Avis Budget Group和GameStop在内的个股，其即将到期的期权占其日均交易量的比例很高，因此可能更容易出现“钉住”现象。关键技术位与市场情绪从技术层面看，市场正处在一个微妙的平衡点。根据期权分析机构SpotGamma的报告，标普500指数目前处于从6700点到6900点的“负伽马”（negative gamma）区间，这意味着市场本身倾向于放大波动，即上涨时加速上涨，下跌时加速下跌。SpotGamma将6800点视为关键的“风险枢轴”（Risk Pivot）。报告指出，如果指数能够收复并站稳在6800点之上，可能被视为开启“圣诞老人行情”的信号。然而，如果指数维持在6800点以下，下行压力将占据主导，且下方缺乏有力的技术支撑区域。该机构警告称，即使市场反弹至6800点，也可能轻易回落，只有当指数明确突破该水平后，卖出看跌期权的资金才会进场提供新的支撑。对于寻求交易机会的投资者，SpotGamma建议，若看涨，可考虑12月31日到期的6900点附近的看涨期权价差策略；若看跌，则建议选择明年2月或3月到期的看跌期权，以规避假期期间过快的时间价值损耗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":1.87,"GS":1.91,"OEX":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":1.87,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.37.0","shortVersion":"4.37.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2592138624","isCrawlerRequest":true}