“AI泡沫即使存在，也将继续膨胀”

澎湃新闻12-19

·当前AI热潮虽然具备历史性泡沫的所有特征，但这并不仅仅是简单的“科技股炒作过热”。AI行业的规模更有可能在继续发展壮大的同时，实现结构性的分化式调整。2025年第四季度以来，伴随着主要科技股的一系列回调，“AI泡沫论”甚嚣尘上，引起了业界广泛的讨论。OpenAI首席执行官山姆·阿尔特曼承认，投资者作为一个整体对AI"过度兴奋"。微软联合创始人比尔·盖茨也将当前的AI热潮类比为二十多年前的互联网...

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Kirsch）在其2019年出版的著作《泡沫与崩盘：技术创新的繁荣与萧条》中，提出了一个评估技术泡沫的四因素框架。这个框架被用来分析从电气照明到航空业再到互联网的历史性技术热潮，并将其在0到8分的量表上进行排名。这四个因素分别是：不确定性。这是技术泡沫的基石。它指的是围绕一项创新如何转化为实际业务、将取代价值链的哪些部分、竞争者数量以及实现预期成果所需时间的模糊性。当一项技术的商业价值和变现模式极度模糊时，投机空间就会急剧扩大。AI技术的商业变现模式模糊，成本目前高于客户支付的费用，用户增长即意味着亏损扩大。MIT研究显示，95%采纳生成式AI的公司尚未从中获利，只有个位数到低两位数的企业看到了大规模的持续投资回报率。估值最高的AI独角兽OpenAI推销“先构建通用智能（AGI），再谈盈利”的叙事。这种模式在财务上表现为巨大亏损。OpenAI最新一季度的亏损约115亿美元，而其2025年整年的预计营收仅为130亿美元。OpenAI预计未来几年将持续出现巨额年度亏损，2028年的营运亏损将高达740亿美元，预计要到2030年才会转正，到那时其年营收将达到2000亿美元，并在2029或2030年开始现金流转正。在长期商业模式尚未明确的情况下，这种依赖股东补贴用户的模式不可持续。投资规模与实际收入之间存在巨大缺口。大型科技公司预计到2028年将投入高达3万亿美元用于AI基础设施建设，然而目前AI的年收入仅约为500亿美元。摩根大通估算，要让这些投资获得10%的回报，AI每年需要创造6500亿美元的收入——是当前水平的13倍。纯粹投资标的盛行。这是指那些命运与特定创新紧密捆绑的公司，它们是将宏大叙事转化为实质性投资的核心载体。在历史上的每一次技术泡沫中，都会涌现出一批这样的公司，吸引投资者将赌注押在某项技术的成功上。二级市场资金过度集中于英伟达等“纯粹”标的。一级市场则超过一半的风险投资流向AI公司。即使无清晰盈利模式，初创公司估值亦能短期翻倍。OpenAI和Anthropic的估值已分别飙升至5000亿美元和3500亿美元。AI公司的估值已经反弹并超过了2020年至2022年零利率政策时期科技泡沫的价格。新手投资者。大量缺乏经验的投资者涌入市场，将资金投入到他们并不真正理解的领域，这显著增强了泡沫膨胀的能力。当投资门槛降低、参与变得容易时，这种力量会被进一步放大。英伟达成为散户交易量最大的单一股票。大批缺乏专业定价能力的散户涌入，加剧了市场的非理性繁荣。鉴于AI是一个如此新且不确定的领域，从某种意义上说，每个人在AI领域都是“新手投资者”，因为没有人确切知道这项技术将如何演变，即便是专业投资机构的基金经理也面临知识盲区。大批散户投资者正通过E-Trade和Robinhood等应用向AI领域注入资金，将积蓄投入到对\"通用超级智能\"的模糊承诺中。强大的叙事协调。强大的叙事能够协调和统一投资者的信念，将投资潜力推向\"无限\"的境界。故事讲得越好、越宏大、越令人激动，泡沫膨胀的动力就越强。技术突破提供了叙事的基础，“Scaling Law”（规模定律）为不计成本的投资提供了理论依据。大语言模型展示出的涌现能力——即在规模扩大后突然出现的、训练时未明确教授的新能力——让人们开始相信，只要持续扩大模型规模和训练数据，就可能实现通用人工智能。AI对投资者的承诺是近乎无限的，甚至是\"不可知\"的。硅谷叙事认为AI是解决所有问题的关键，构建了“AGI即将到来”的必然性叙事——它将能够完成人类几乎所有的任务，彻底改变所有行业。这种叙事将AI的潜力推向了极致，声称AI将治愈癌症、解决气候变化，取代企业的各类人员——从职能人员到CEO，甚至创造一个“数字上帝”，这种信仰能够证明任何金额的支出都是合理的。在大国间的科技竞争中，AI被拔高到了战略核心级别的地位。这种宏大叙事，使得任何高估值似乎都变得合理，成功协调了全球投资者的信念。将这个框架应用于当前的生成式AI热潮时，四个标准都符合现实情况，即使它不是满分8分，它也完全具备一个历史性泡沫的所有特征。在金融意义上，“泡沫”并不等同于“骗局”或“无价值”。它更接近一个结构描述：资产价格明显偏离可合理解释的长期现金流，并由融资、预期与竞争行为形成自我强化。所以，讨论AI泡沫并不是要判断AI能不能用——AI当然能用，而且会越来越能用。真正需要回答的是：现在付出的价格，是否过早地购买了过长周期的未来？扩张速度是否显著快于兑现速度？当融资条件变化、预期回调时，产业链条会以什么方式出清？2、泡沫延续的逻辑对于科技巨头们来说，越智能的模型越具有商业价值，这离不开持续加码算力建设。然而，若前沿模型在推理能力上的提升与算力投入之间的投入产出比下降，巨额投资将面临折旧危机。如果AI相关的垂直软件系统和企业应用软件到2027年无法实现收入增长和盈利能力，股东可能会迫使五大超大规模云服务商削减资本开支。对于投资机构和专业投资者，避免参与这场泡沫甚至比参与泡沫破裂的风险更大。如果基金经理回避AI股票导致回报落后于基准，他们可能会被解雇。在华尔街，FOMO（\"害怕错过机会\"）的情绪已经压倒了对投资泡沫的担忧。与2000年互联网泡沫不同，当今AI浪潮的核心驱动力——“美股七雄”等大型科技公司拥有庞大的营收和健康的现金储备。它们正用自己的自由现金流来资助AI基础设施建设，这与当年许多互联网初创公司负债累累、商业模式脆弱的情况形成了鲜明对比。这让许多投资者相信“这次不同”。“理性泡沫”的概念正是在这一背景下被提出：资产价格被推高到远超基本价值的水平，但参与者仍然持续买入，因为他们理性地预期价格还会继续上涨，且错失机会的风险大于过度投资的风险。Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格就表示，即使最终在AI上花费了数千亿美元，如果错失机会，风险会更高。有人认为AI的采用速度是早期互联网接入速度的15 到60 倍。Lightspeed Venture Partners 的联合创始人认为，当前周期的营收增长规模“比以往任何周期都呈指数级增长”。即使许多投资是“死胡同”，长期来看，这项技术创造的净经济价值将是巨大的，就像互联网最终被证明非常有价值一样。3、市场对AI泡沫的审视拥护AI投资的乐观者认为，当前的投资与投机性的互联网泡沫时代有本质区别。目前的超大规模云服务商资本支出是以广泛的客户需求为基础，并有创纪录的运营现金流作为支撑的。投资的目标是追求投资回报（ROI）、利润率扩张和收入增长，而非追求“通用人工智能”的理论突破。对处理器的需求是没有上限的，仅受限于用户尝试解决的问题的复杂性。只要提供更多计算能力，AI就会变得更智能、更有用。这种论述为持续的巨额投资提供了理论正当性。基金经理和资产配置者则没这么有“格局”，他们对公司过度投资AI而潜在回报可能无法达标感到“紧张”。这些担忧很可能被AI数据中心投资的规模所放大——这些是会随时间贬值的昂贵基础设施。美国银行最新的基金经理调查发现，多数基金经理认为企业在资本支出上投入过多，应该改善资产负债表。这是自2005年以来首次出现多数基金经理认为公司资本支出过高的情况。另外值得注意的是债务风险的扩散，融资结构正在发生深刻变化。债券资产和私募股权机构已扩大了在AI领域的投资，以帮助科技巨头融资。Meta和Blue Owl成立了一家270亿美元的合资企业，用于建设Meta在路易斯安那州的数据中心。其中一部分资金将由Blue Owl发行给PIMCO和其他债券投资者的债务提供。这样的操作将建设数据中心的巨额债务结构化到资产负债表之外。风险被转移到了私募信贷市场。摩根大通估计，整个AI基础设施建设需要约5万亿美元，而当前融资渠道仍存在1.4万亿美元的缺口，需要在未来五年通过私募信贷或政府支出来填补。这意味着AI泡沫的风险已经超越了传统的股权投机，开始渗透到债券市场和信用体系。一旦AI商业化回报不及预期，违约风险将波及养老金、共同基金等普通投资者的资产甲骨文有可能成为AI泡沫中第一个“爆雷”的科技巨头。在宣布与OpenAI签订3000亿美元AI计算服务合同后，甲骨文股价曾一度飙升，市值接近1万亿美元。然而此后三个月，该公司股价暴跌32%，成为标普500指数中表现第三差的股票。自2025年9月以来，甲骨文（Oracle）、CoreWeave等公司的信用违约互换（CDS）交易量激增90%。投资者开始对冲AI基建巨头的违约风险。甲骨文为履行OpenAI合同大举借债购买芯片，未偿债务超1000亿美元，面临评级机构下调至“垃圾债”的风险。其5230亿美元的合同收入储备（RPO）高度依赖OpenAI。甲骨文的命运在很大程度上被绑定在一家仍在巨额亏损的初创公司身上，若OpenAI商业化受阻，甲骨文将面临巨额坏账。近期甲骨文宣布创纪录资本支出后股价应声大跌，表明市场已不再奖励扩张，而更看重AI投资的收益兑现。另一个引起市场警觉的问题是AI芯片的经济寿命正在急剧缩短。英伟达等芯片制造商正以比以往更快的速度推出性能更强的处理器。Rubin架构的性能将是Blackwell的四倍。这意味着上一代芯片在三到四年内就会损失大部分市场价值。批评者认为，科技公司通过将AI芯片的“有用寿命”延长到五到六年（而非更贴合实际的两到三年）来降低年度折旧费用，这是一种人为夸大当前利润的会计手段。如果这些芯片的实际寿命只有两到三年，公司可能面临数十亿美元的巨额资产减记。4、技术在进步，泡沫依然存在面对“AI泡沫”的论断，许多人会提出一个直觉性的反驳：AI技术确实惊艳并且还在不断进步，产品也确实在创造价值。对AI的需求也是真实的，ChatGPT每周用户已超过8亿，AI正在改变我们工作、学习和生活的方式。如果需求是真实的、技术是有价值的，我们能说它存在泡沫吗？答案是：技术进步和泡沫并不矛盾。历史上许多泡沫都是由具有真正颠覆性价值的技术驱动的。泡沫的存在反映的不是技术是否会成功，而是市场价格对这种成功预期的过度提前和极度夸大。互联网泡沫最终给世界留下了现代互联网，亚马逊和谷歌也从崩盘中崛起，证明了这项技术的价值是巨大的。铁路泡沫最终构建了英国的铁路骨干网络，尽管许多投资者损失了金钱。航空业在1929年泡沫破裂，但飞机最终彻底改变了人类的交通方式。泡沫的本质在于市场价格与当前可实现价值的脱节，而不是技术的长期价值不足。正如比尔·盖茨所言，互联网泡沫破裂后，技术留下了巨大的净价值，但许多公司最终仍然被高估并失败。AI的价值同样是“极其高昂”的，但这并不意味着当前的定价是合理的。按照股票估值来看，几乎所有方法都显示，美国股票看起来是自互联网泡沫以来最昂贵的。预期市盈率、股价现金流比、“美联储模型”（Fed model）计算的股票相对于债券的额外回报，以及周期性调整市盈率，都强烈显示股票估值高昂。技术的实用性证明了长期价值，但无法否定金融层面的投机狂热。个人用户能够以低廉的成本使用AI服务，很大程度上是因为股东在补贴这些服务——提供AI服务的成本往往高于客户支付的费用。目前AI服务定价远低于生产成本，导致AI业务出现巨额亏损，这种模式能够持续多久，取决于投资者的耐心和资金的充裕程度。5、中美科技竞争如何影响AI泡沫的发展地缘政治竞争为AI泡沫提供了最强大的“必然性叙事”。当前AI行业领导者推动的宏大叙事中，明确包含了“必须在AGI竞赛中击败对手”的论调，为不计成本的巨额投入提供了正当性。尽管AI热潮最初是由技术突破驱动的“技术火花”，但政府的积极介入正在成为添加燃料的“政治火花”。美国政府的政策优先事项之一就是拆除针对AI的监管障碍，并与中国竞争以实现“全球统治”。在地缘政治竞争的背景下，科技巨头和投资者担心如果他们不积极提前部署算力，就有被竞争对手超越或淘汰的风险。这种害怕错过机会的情绪与国家战略需求绑定，使得投资加速。即使从纯粹的商业回报角度看投资存在问题，国家层面的战略需求也会继续推动资金涌入。与此同时，中国公司正在以更低的成本将具有竞争力的AI模型推向市场，威胁到了硅谷在某些市场上的定价权。DeepSeek的成功曾引发美国科技股出现大幅抛售，凸显了低成本竞争对高估值泡沫的结构性冲击风险。6、什么情况下，AI泡沫不存在？那么在什么情况下，AI泡沫会被“证伪”？换言之，如何证明“这一次确实不同”——AI企业的价值如果持续成长，当前的高估值是对未来价值的合理预判，而非投机泡沫。第一，核心企业必须展现出稳健的财务基础和抗风险能力。当前AI热潮与历史泡沫最大的结构性差异，在于领军企业的财务健康状况。像微软、谷歌和亚马逊这样的巨头必须继续用其庞大的营收流和健康的现金储备来资助AI基础设施建设，依靠自由现金流而非债务扩张。同时，它们的核心业务必须持续盈利以对冲AI投资风险。对于像英伟达这样的纯粹投资标的，其目前约三十倍的预期市盈率远低于互联网泡沫顶峰时期思科的两百倍，但这个估值仍需通过持续\"超出预期\"的业绩来证明其合理性。第二，生产力提升必须得到迅速和广泛的兑现。当前市场对AI价值的怀疑核心在于投资规模与实际收入之间的巨大缺口。用户的一大疑虑在于AI生成的低质量内容（Workslop）可能导致企业陷入“平庸陷阱”，即生产力表面提升但质量下降。AI必须从“前景”转变为“现实”，克服“生产力J型曲线”效应——新技术从发明到显著提升生产力往往存在较长时滞（如电力革命耗费了30年），能够被广泛应用并带来实际的生产力飞跃。AI模型需要解决其成本高昂、容易“产生幻觉”以及造成低质量内容泛滥的问题。投资者的焦点则需要从遥远的AGI宏大叙事，转向AI在特定领域创造立竿见影价值的“人工专业智能”。第三，价值链竞争必须确保利润分布健康。如果少数几家大厂垄断了所有价值，并利用其主导地位吞噬下游应用，AI领域将陷入生态失衡，泡沫会在应用端先破裂。要使整个AI生态系统健康成长，依赖大型语言模型的应用开发者需要通过专业化数据、定制化工具和差异化服务建立起竞争壁垒。如果基础模型提供商之间的技术差异缩小，基础模型趋向商品化，大部分价值将流向使用模型的软件和服务供应商，巨头之间的激烈竞争将迫使所有参与者专注于效率和商业化。第四，融资结构必须去风险化，避免系统性债务风险。历史上的泡沫破裂之所以具有破坏性，是因为债务而非单纯的股权损失。尽管大型科技公司财务稳健，但它们越来越多地依赖发债和资产负债表外融资来建设数据中心。如果AI投资最终失败导致大规模债务违约，风险将扩散到更广泛的金融领域。因此，在技术价值被兑现之前，支撑这场军备竞赛的金融结构不能先垮掉。AI企业建设算力所产生的债务需要拥有稳健的资金支持，确保即使AI盈利不如预期，资产也能被担保。此外，与互联网泡沫中铺设的光纤电缆相比，AI芯片等资本投入的折旧速度更快，AI硬件的“保质期”必须能够通过持续的技术创新得到延长。第五，市场情绪与投资行为必须保持“理性兴奋”。如果市场认为AI的价值将不断成长，投资者就必须避免进入“非理性繁荣”阶段。风险资本家本·霍洛维茨指出，当前市场不处于彻底泡沫的最明显信号就是“每个人都在谈论泡沫”。只要投资者和分析师持续质疑估值和盈利能力，市场就会保持一种自我修正的机制，避免全面失控。只有当“最后一个批评者都承认自己错了”并全面涌入时，真正的泡沫才会破裂。投资者需要从当前忽略自由现金流和短期收入预测的行为模式中走出来，开始更严肃地衡量AI公司在未来几年内的实际盈利能力。第六，物理基础设施能够满足AI产业需求。缺电可能比缺钱更早刺破泡沫。微软等巨头已出现因电力容量不足，导致昂贵的GPU芯片被迫闲置在仓库中的情况。美国电网并网排队需3-5年。若电力供应和液冷技术不能在2026年前突破，数万亿GPU将面临闲置风险。7、 如果AI泡沫破裂美国大举押注AGI，AI已成为美国经济增长的支柱。若AGI未如期爆发，美国将面对产业危机和失业危机风险。AI相关投资在2025年上半年贡献了近一半的美国GDP增长。美国家庭财富的21%直接来自股票，AI股贡献了近期增长的一半。若泡沫破裂可能导致家庭净资产缩水8%，消费支出可能剧减（约GDP的1.6%），足以引发衰退。因此，维持AI产业已成为维持经济增长的政治与经济任务。AI相关投资对美国经济增长产生了重要支撑，帮助缓冲了关税等冲击的影响。如果没有AI带来的增长，美国经济增速可能更为缓慢，并受到关税威胁和地缘政治摩擦的困扰。如果AI泡沫破裂导致美国经济陷入衰退，随之而来的美国需求疲软将蔓延到欧洲和中国。而即使泡沫破裂，由于其杠杆主要集中在私人股权和企业债券，而不是传统商业银行的资产负债表上，美股七雄等核心科技巨头的财务韧性强，可以吸收部分损失，泡沫破裂的后果将主要体现在资产价格的回调、经济增速的下滑，而不至于引起系统性金融危机。8、展望2026：即使有泡沫，AI牛市不会崩盘宏观政策层面，美联储进入降息周期，预计将在2026年继续降息，这种宽松的货币环境为融资活动提供了有利的宏观环境，将有助于支撑资产估值继续上升，与历史上泡沫破裂前夕的快速收紧形成鲜明对比。而在全球资本市场，AI科技是目前最集中的投资方向，除了AI之外，投资者似乎找不到别的选择。与历史上许多投机泡沫不同，AI的需求是真实且旺盛的。根据OpenRouter平台的数据，Token消耗量在一年内增长了14.5倍，远超基础设施的投入速度。头部科技巨头的营收和利润增长表现持续超预期，即使未能填平与投资规模之间的鸿沟，也为市场情绪提供了持续的燃料。这些因素结合前文中提到的国家战略的背书，和经济对AI的依赖，共同构成了这场泡沫继续膨胀的结构性力量。AI牛市将呈现结构分化的增长特征。即使AI行业的整体规模预计仍将持续增长，一些此前被过度炒作的子行业可能由于商业模式无法兑现、市场需求不足、同质化竞争等原因面临洗牌，如语音转录、AI编程、聊天伴侣。应用层面的竞争焦点将转向具有明确ROI的垂直解决方案，如药物研发、企业解决方案、AI数据管理。AI智能体赛道也将迎来整合潮。2026年的市场逻辑将从“讲故事”转向“拼资金效率”和“拼物理落地”。对于AI产业来说，解决电力问题、填补资金缺口、找到产品的盈利模式将至关重要。AI泡沫的存在也许是个学术事实，但泡沫的持续膨胀将是个市场现实。泡沫是技术革命的代价，也是资本推动创新的机制。问题不仅在于泡沫是否会破裂，更在于破裂后会留下多少价值，以及谁将在这场“去伪存真”的进程中脱颖而出。（作者滕斌圣，系长江商学院战略学教授，战略研究副院长，新生代独角兽全球生态体系研究中心主任；作者何涧石，系长江商学院新生代独角兽全球生态体系研究中心研究员）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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