黄金“情绪放大器”失控! 白银价格贵过原油市值超谷歌 “银色狂想曲”的终章是100美元?

智通财经2025-12-20

智通财经APP获悉，截至周五美股市场收盘，白银现货交易价格再创历史新高，今年以来白银屡创新高且涨幅高达惊人的135%。更加惊人的是，一盎司白银交易价格已经显著高于一桶原油的交易价格——除了2020年4月份的“负油价”史无前例混乱期间，这是从没发生过的事，并且随着白银交易价格持稳于66美元价位上方，白银总市值已超越当前美股市场最热门AI科技股——美国科技巨头谷歌的母公司Alphabet，跃升为全球...

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The price of silver is more expensive than that of crude oil, and the market value exceeds that of Google. Is the final chapter of \"Silver Rhapsody\" $100?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"DDG":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"DUG":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"PAAS":1.91,"DWT":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，截至周五美股市场收盘，白银现货交易价格再创历史新高，今年以来白银屡创新高且涨幅高达惊人的135%。更加惊人的是，一盎司白银交易价格已经显著高于一桶原油的交易价格——除了2020年4月份的“负油价”史无前例混乱期间，这是从没发生过的事，并且随着白银交易价格持稳于66美元价位上方，白银总市值已超越当前美股市场最热门AI科技股——美国科技巨头谷歌的母公司Alphabet，跃升为全球市值第四大资产。毋庸置疑的是，这一沉寂已久的有着“黄金穷亲戚”称号的银色贵金属正在享受着独属于它的高光时刻，今年以来白银涨势远超黄金，令那些长期更加看好黄金而对于白银持悲观看跌态度的大宗商品交易员们感到无比震撼。市场对于白银的狂热投资情绪，可谓全面凸显出白银作为工业用途类重要金属需求持续激增以及在全球投资者常态资产配置组合中的权重日益增加。在一些对于白银持有积极看涨立场的分析师们看来，白银作为黄金的“情绪放大器”，有望继续享受比黄金强劲得多的资金涌入规模与涨势，并且押注白银未来突破100美元绝非不可能，并且这种涨到三位数的超级牛市概率仍在不断扩张。拆解白银：为何近期价格狂飙?简单概括，这一轮白银猛烈涨势的核心逻辑在于：“宏观层面的美联储基准利率下行预期+结构性供给偏紧+工业增长叙事强化 + 动量资金/投机势力/FOMO(错失恐惧症)情绪”共同把白银价格推入无与伦比的“贵金属加速段”。拆解来看，近期美国市场的疲软数据无疑大幅强化了市场对2026年美联储继续降息的强劲押注，对不付息资产(比如黄金、白银等贵金属)而言，实际利率下行预期是最直接的估值抬升因素;供给偏紧与“可交割/可借出”紧张共同导致的结构性偏紧也是影响白银定价的重要逻辑，德意志银行在一份研报中提到，工业端“可用银”紧俏，租借成本(lease rates)飙升到多年高位，强化了“现货紧、金融市场需求一来就容易挤”的特征。工业需求叙事被重新定价则是这一轮白银价格飙升的新颖逻辑，正如世界白银协会在最新研究报告中指出的那样：AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼、电气化/新能源(含光伏)转型趋势、全球转向电动汽车的大趋势等，叠加持续的供需缺口，使得白银不再只是“跟着黄金走”;世界白银协会表示，光伏产业的17%年复合增长率、电动汽车产业的13%年复合增长率，以及全球AI数据中心的爆发式扩张，共同构成了白银需求增长的三大支柱。世界白银协会的在这份报告预计上述的这些行业将在2030年前持续推升工业领域对白银的需求，该协会重点指出，全球数据中心IT功率容量从2000年的0.93吉瓦增长到2025年的近50吉瓦，增长了足足53倍。该协会表示，这种指数级增长意味着全球更大规模的服务器、交换机和冷却系统，每个系统的核心组件都需要白银。世界白银协会强调，白银在数据中心的大规模渗透与应用基于三大特性：最高电导率确保服务器电力传输中的能量损耗最小，对于需要99.999%正常运行时间的数据中心而言至关重要;优异热导率帮助设备保持安全温度范围，降低冷却能耗(冷却系统占数据中心总能耗的7-30%);高抗腐蚀性在高电负载和温度波动环境下保护组件。进一步来看，无论是英伟达主导的AI GPU算力技术路线、谷歌所主导的TPU AI算力集群，抑或是聚焦于边缘端AI的NPU，这些最核心的AI算力基础设施都依赖于在内部连接和封装中使用白银的高性能半导体组件。2024年工业白银需求达到创纪录的6.805亿盎司，世界白银协会表示，这主要由人工智能训练以及ChatGPT等AI相关应用在消费电子和其他硬件中的电子电气需求所强劲推动。华尔街金融巨头美国银行近日发布的研报显示，全球AI军备竞赛仍处于“早期到中期阶段”;全球最大规模资产管理巨头之一的先锋领航近日在一份研究报告中指出，人工智能投资周期可能仅完成了最终峰值的30%-40%。在华尔街巨头摩根士丹利、花旗、Loop Capital以及Wedbush看来，以AI芯片算力硬件为核心的全球人工智能基础设施投资浪潮远远未完结，现在仅仅处于开端，在前所未有的“AI推理端算力需求风暴”推动之下，持续至2030年的这一轮AI基础设施投资浪潮规模有望高达3万亿至4万亿美元动量/投机资金与FOMO则是推波助澜的关键力量，一些华尔街分析师将“投机性动量买盘”直接列为本轮白银冲高的最重要推手，白银市场规模在近期暴涨前相对其他贵金属市场更小、更不“深”，因此更容易出现“加速—过热—回撤”的典型路径。白银突破100美元不是梦?白银近期“近似抛物线”的飙升在图表上非常夸张、FOMO和追动量买盘显著增强，但严格意义上它还没有达到1980年那种“真正抛物线”级别(例如1–2个月涨幅翻倍以上)。通常而言，白银在金融市场的长期历史上通常充当黄金投资情绪的放大器，市场规模远小于黄金，因此在黄金大行情中往往呈现更高弹性。在一些聚焦于大宗商品的资深分析师以及交易员们看来，白银近期的暴涨行情，为白银突破100美元这一超级关口奠定重要基础，不过他们也普遍认为白银“冲击/触及 100 美元/盎司”属于“极端牛市目标”。来自BNP Paribas(法国巴黎银行)的资深策略师 Philippe Gijsels认为在美联储降息周期以及市场狂热情绪的强劲推动下，白银涨势将延续至2026年，并且他预计到2026年末黄金触及100美元/盎司“非常有可能”。来自First Majestic的首席执行官Keith Neumeyer自今年以来，已经多次在采访中公开表达对白银三位数价格(100 美元/盎司以上)的长期判断。Solomon Global董事总经理Paul Williams表示，白银作为工业类金属和价值储存工具的双重属性持续吸引全球资金流入，长期牛市的支撑因素仍在强化。Williams此前在10月白银接近50美元时就预测其将在2026年底前突破100美元。“白银供需失衡继续推高交易价格，支撑这种所谓‘魔鬼投机金属’以及‘黄金穷亲戚’的长期基本面只会越来越强，任何回调都可能是暂时停顿而非牛市方向改变，考虑到市场结构性紧张。白银2026年的前景非常光明。”Williams近期在一份报告中写道。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2592119206","isCrawlerRequest":true}

黄金“情绪放大器”失控! 白银价格贵过原油 市值超谷歌 “银色狂想曲”的终章是100美元?

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黄金“情绪放大器”失控! 白银价格贵过原油市值超谷歌 “银色狂想曲”的终章是100美元?