美团-W：基本面左侧已过长期有耐心

中金公司2025-12-19

公司动态公司近况近期我们邀请公司进行非交易型路演，管理层分享了外卖即时零售竞争和到店酒旅业务竞争最新动态，以及海外业务发展情况。评论近期外卖竞争重点转向高价值用户，美团长期有信心推动盈利回到合理水平。四季度公司观察到用户补贴在双11 购物节结束之前仍处于高位，但各方补贴向高等级会员用户倾斜。美团外卖在中高客单价市场中份额较稳定，针对这部分用户，美团主要通过更稳定的配送体验、更丰富的供给及更充分的...

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ACC","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU1813983027.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","LU0164872284.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Meituan-W: The left side of fundamentals has been patient for a long time","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"METmain":0.6,"MPNGY":1.96,"03690":1.96,"HMTD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"公司动态公司近况近期我们邀请公司进行非交易型路演，管理层分享了外卖即时零售竞争和到店酒旅业务竞争最新动态，以及海外业务发展情况。评论近期外卖竞争重点转向高价值用户，美团长期有信心推动盈利回到合理水平。四季度公司观察到用户补贴在双11 购物节结束之前仍处于高位，但各方补贴向高等级会员用户倾斜。美团外卖在中高客单价市场中份额较稳定，针对这部分用户，美团主要通过更稳定的配送体验、更丰富的供给及更充分的会员权益提升用户的留存意愿。长期看，公司认为外卖有望和竞争对手保持较为显著的单均盈利差距，虽然履约成本的差距理论上会因为对手的规模提升而较先前缩小，但订单结构差异带来的补贴和广告效率的不同依然明显存在。我们认为，提高高客单价占比与提高市占率二者间存在一定的取舍：美团在二者中有明显的侧重；但无论对手实力如何雄厚，在二者上同时发力的难度都比较大，且结合近期行业对C端AI产品的大幅投入，我们认为外卖行业在2026 年继续维持高强度竞争水平的可能性较低。到店酒旅业务积极应对抖音竞争，短期利润环比下滑。到店酒旅业务竞争近期烈度提升，公司认为分品类看，到综业务分散且低频，线上化率较低，竞争态势稳定；酒旅业务也较平稳；到餐业务中为应对竞争公司或需针对性增加补贴，但由于正餐决策链路较长，美团优势明显。此外，公司预计叠加宏观及外卖竞争因素等压制，到店酒旅OPM环比或进一步下滑。海外进展迅速，维持新业务明年整体亏损低于今年的指引。公司明确虽然明年Keeta亏损幅度可能超过今年，但国内新业务效率提升或可抵消出海带来的亏损增量。公司认为Keeta沙特在持续优化UE，对其余中东区域业务转盈利的节奏也较乐观。盈利预测与估值我们维持25/26 年经调整净利润预测分别-168 亿元和196 亿元，维持跑赢行业评级及目标价125 港元，对应27 年15 倍经调整市盈率与23%上行空间。当前股价对应27 年12 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美团-W：基本面左侧已过 长期有耐心

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美团-W：基本面左侧已过长期有耐心