高盛预警：英国央行开启持久宽松周期，3、6、9月将分别降息25个基点

智通财经2025-12-19

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行于12月18日作出降息决定，这一举措进一步强化了市场的预期：英国央行正迈入一个更为持久的宽松周期。在当前经济动能持续走弱的背景下，高盛仍预测该行在2026年会多次降息。高盛在研究报告中指出，预计英国央行将分别于3月、6月、9月各下调利率25个基点。此前，高盛仅粗略拟定的降息时点为2月、4月和7月。此次时间调整表明，随着通胀压力逐步缓解，且劳动力市场状况恶化的证据日益增多...

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respectively","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，英国央行于12月18日作出降息决定，这一举措进一步强化了市场的预期：英国央行正迈入一个更为持久的宽松周期。在当前经济动能持续走弱的背景下，高盛仍预测该行在2026年会多次降息。高盛在研究报告中指出，预计英国央行将分别于3月、6月、9月各下调利率25个基点。此前，高盛仅粗略拟定的降息时点为2月、4月和7月。此次时间调整表明，随着通胀压力逐步缓解，且劳动力市场状况恶化的证据日益增多，高盛认为英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)将会谨慎且稳步地推进降息进程。高盛分析指出，近期英国公布的一系列数据愈发凸显出，经济增长所面临的风险正朝着“放缓”的方向倾斜。劳动力市场方面，已显露出降温态势：企业招聘步伐放缓，劳动者面临的失业风险有所上升，工资增长带来的压力也得到了一定程度的缓解。与此同时，高盛预计，在2026年，英国通胀将维持在温和水平，这进而降低了英国央行维持紧缩性政策立场的必要性。尽管当前市场对降息路径的定价呈现出较为渐进的态势，但高盛认为，倘若后续公布的数据持续印证上述趋势，那么英国央行降息的力度或许会超出投资者的预期。该行表示，疲弱的经济活动数据将使政策制定者更有底气、更倾向于采取鸽派立场，尤其是在通胀预期依然保持锚定的情形之下。12月实施的降息举措，标志着英国央行政策叙事方向发生了转变，这表明，其风险平衡的天平已从应对持续通胀问题，转向助力经济增长。不过，政策制定者预计仍会秉持数据依赖原则，密切留意工资变动情况、服务领域通胀走势以及更为广泛的金融环境状况。从市场视角看，英国央行政策前景的动态演变，将影响英国利率走势、英镑汇率表现以及相对货币政策差异格局。倘若宽松周期以更快的节奏推进或程度更深，英镑汇率或将面临下行压力，但与此同时，却能为英国风险资产提供有力支撑，尤其是在全球主要央行行动愈发谨慎的大背景下。总体而言，高盛的最新预测凸显市场愈发确信英国央行的紧缩阶段已彻底结束，接下来的挑战在于如何校准降息的节奏与幅度，以适应英国经济走弱的现实。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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