2026年，AI服务器贵贵贵！

环球老虎财经app2025-12-16

2026年，将是AI服务器系统级升级的关键窗口期。摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，AI服务器硬件正在经历一场由GPU和ASIC驱动的重大设计升级。2026年，英伟达即将推出的GB300、Vera Rubin平台和Kyber架构，以及AMD的Helios服务器机架项目，都会带来更高的计算能力和机柜密度。与之匹配的，将是更有效的电源解决方案、标配的液冷散热方案以及更高要求的PCB和高速互联。这场系统级升级，...

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expensive!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDX":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDA":1.97,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6},"content_text":"2026年，将是AI服务器系统级升级的关键窗口期。摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，AI服务器硬件正在经历一场由GPU和ASIC驱动的重大设计升级。2026年，英伟达即将推出的GB300、Vera Rubin平台和Kyber架构，以及AMD的Helios服务器机架项目，都会带来更高的计算能力和机柜密度。与之匹配的，将是更有效的电源解决方案、标配的液冷散热方案以及更高要求的PCB和高速互联。这场系统级升级，也将让2026 年的 AI 服务器迎来“不可估量的贵”。AI服务器，需求爆发AI服务器需求还在持续上升。大摩预测，仅英伟达平台，AI服务器机柜的需求就将从2025年的约2.8万台，在2026年跃升至至少6万台，实现超过一倍的增长。与此同时，AMD的Helios服务器机架项目（基于MI400系列）也获得了良好进展，进一步加剧了市场对先进AI硬件的需求。当前，英伟达Blackwell平台，特别是GB200芯片，是当前AI服务器市场的核心驱动力。到了2026年，AI硬件从H00/H200时代，转向NVIDIA的GB200/300（Blackwell平台）及后续的Vera Rubin（VR系列）平台所驱动的新周期。芯片功率不断突破上限。从H100的700W TDP（TDP：散热设计功耗），到B200的1000W，再到GB200的1200W，直至2026年下半年登场的Vera Rubin（VR200）平台，其GPU最大TDP将飙升至2300W，而2026年末的VR200 NVL44 CPX 更是高达3700W。随着GPU功耗逼近4kW，传统风冷方案彻底失效，液冷成为唯一可行路径。英伟达已在GB200平台中将液冷作为标准配置，并与主要OEM厂商联合开发定制化冷板接口，确保热量能高效传导至冷却回路。此外，供电系统也面临重构。主流服务器厂商正从12V VRM向48V直流母线迁移，以减少转换损耗并提升电源响应速度。这些变化意味着未来的AI数据中心将不再仅仅是“放满GPU的机房”，而是一个集电力、冷却、信号传输于一体的复杂工程系统，其建设成本与运维难度将显著上升。这都是导致AI服务器 “变贵” 的原因。AI服务器代工厂商，产能全开随着英伟达在下半年转向Blackwell Ultra平台的GB300／B300后，明年会再迎来迭代的Vera Rubin平台所驱动的新周期。从交付主体看，鸿海、广达、纬创、纬颖四家具备NVIDIA Certified Systems认证资质的ODM厂商，构成了当前GB200/GB300整机柜的主要供应方。其中，鸿海为首批完成GB200及GB300整机柜量产交付的厂商。鸿海第三季度AI服务器机柜出货季增幅度高达300%。整体来看，鸿海2025年AI服务器收入预计将超过1万亿新台币的目标，占据40%的市场份额。管理层预计GB200与GB300不会出现重大过渡问题，并表示GB300将在2025年下半年主导出货。近期，广达、纬创及纬颖11月营收齐创单月历史新高。广达、纬颖营收分别达1929.47亿元及968.85亿元新台币，环比增幅分别为11.4%和6.2%。最新数据显示，纬创表现最为突出，11月合并营收冲上2806.24亿元新台币，环比增51.6%，同比增幅更高达194.6%。大摩预计，11月单月GB200出货量为5500柜，较10月成长29%。其中广达出货1000-1100柜、纬创1200-1300柜、鸿海约2600柜。从2025年度GB200、GB300机架服务器各ODM厂出货的市场占比来看，鸿海占过半的市场份额，高达52%；纬创约占21%；广达占约 19%；就产品别来看，GB200占比高达81%，GB300则约 19%。分析预期，随着英伟达新款GB300架构AI服务器进入出货旺季，三家厂商本季业绩有望齐创新高，推动全年营收交出至少年增五成以上的优异成绩。产业链升级今年9月下旬，英伟达GB300 AI服务器出货。到了2026年下半年，Vera Rubin系列出货，其中包括电源、散热设计均与GB系列不同，这对于零组件厂来说是出货重新洗牌的机会，也带动了整个产业链的升级。电源随着AI 工作负载呈指数级增长，数据中心的功率需求也随之激增。以搭载NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 或 GB300 NVL72 的设备为例，需配备多达 8 个电源架为 MGX 计算及交换机架供电。若沿用 54V 直流配电，在兆瓦级功率需求下，Kyber 电源架将占用高达 64U 的机架空间，导致计算设备无安装空间。而在 2025 年 GTC 大会上，NVIDIA 展示的 800V 边车方案，可在单个 Kyber 机架内为 576 个 Rubin Ultra GPU 供电；另一种替代方案则是为每个计算机架配置专用电源架。传统的54V 机架内配电系统专为千瓦级机架设计，已无法满足现代 AI 工厂中兆瓦级机架的供电需求。英伟达正将其电源供应策略提升至全新战略高度，通过下一代Kyber平台，将技术护城河从芯片算力延伸至整个数据中心的电力架构，意图定义未来AI工厂的标准。英伟达的AI服务器电源战略“Kyber”正双线推进，其量产目标设定在2026年底前，早于市场普遍预期的2027年。据天风国际证券分析师郭明𫓹分析，Kyber项目的参考设计范畴已显著扩展，不再局限于GPU与机柜层级，而是将整个数据中心的供电与基础设施纳入规划，包括800 VDC/HVDC配电和固态变压器（SST）的应用。也就是说，自Kyber世代起，电源架构的重要性在英伟达内部已提升至与半导体同等的战略地位。据大摩预测，到2027年，为Rubin Ultra机柜（采用Kyber架构）设计的电源解决方案，其单机柜价值将是当前GB200服务器机柜的10倍以上。同时，到2027年，AI服务器机柜中每瓦功耗对应的电源方案价值，也将比现阶段翻倍。散热随着数据中心CPU和GPU性能的不断提升，其功耗也随之激增，散热成本上涨的趋势非常明显。英伟达的液冷技术路线呈现清晰的渐进式升级特征。早期GB200采用单板单向冷板+风冷组合方案，冷板覆盖CPU、GPU等高温区，风冷负责电源等低温部件。新一代GB300全面升级为全冷板液冷方案，可稳定应对1400瓦散热需求。面向未来Rubin芯片的超高功耗场景，英伟达已布局两相冷板液冷与静默式（浸没式）液冷耦合方案。具体来看，英伟达GB300 NVL72机架级AI系统，单单是液冷散热组件的价值就高达49860美元（约合人民币近36万元），这已经比GB200 NVL72系统高了大约20％。有数据表明，下一代Vera Rubin NVL144平台的散热总价将更高。随着计算托架和交换机托架的冷却需求进一步增加，预计每个机柜的冷却组件总价值将增长17%，达到约55710美元（约合人民币近40万元），其中为交换机托架设计的冷却模块预计价值将显著增长67%。高端PCBAI服务器等硬件升级推动高端PCB需求激增。每一次GPU迭代，都伴随着对PCB层数、材料等级和尺寸的更高要求。当前，随着服务器功能的增强和算力的提升，在一些功能板卡上，例如BMC（基板管理控制器）板卡、网卡以及PoE（以太网供电）卡上的用量都有所增加。在迭代趋势方面，PCB的层数正向更高端发展，目前普遍已经达到44至46层。高端PCB正展现出巨大需求潜力。Prismark数据显示，2025Q1全球PCB市场规模同比增长6.8%，其中高端HDI板和18层以上高多层板需求增速分别达14.2%和18.5%。目前，包括东山精密、沪电股份等在内的头部厂商正将新增产能倾斜至18层以上的高端品类。更关键的是，PCB 产品的迭代不仅仅是数量层级的提升，更是价格的翻倍式增长，这将直接体现在利润的大幅增加上。例如，从400G升级到800G或1.6T，PCB的价格不是增长20%或30%，而是成倍增长。沪电股份表示，AI仍然是当前确定性最强的需求。从海外资本开支预期可看到云计算厂商正在争相在 AI 基础设施布局，2025 年 META、谷歌、微软、亚马逊资本开支分别同比增加 60%、43%、45%、20%，AI 服务器从以往的14~24 层提升至 20~30 层，交换机提升至 38~46 层，部分产品还会引入 HDI 工艺，行业附加值有望增长。金主已备好“黄金”云厂商们已经做好了准备。在AI服务器需求增长与成本升级的情况下，全球主要的八大CSPs资本支出持续扩大，为“变贵”的AI服务器提供了需求支撑。TrendForce集邦咨询将2025年全球八大主要CSPs资本支出(CapEx)总额年增率从原本的61%，上修至65%。预期2026年CSPs仍将维持积极的投资节奏，合计资本支出将进一步推升至6,000亿美元以上，年增来到40%，展现出AI基础建设的长期成长潜能。这里统计的八大CSPs包含谷歌、AWS、Meta、微软、Oracle（甲骨文）、腾讯、阿里、百度。面对 AI 数据和云端需求的激增，谷歌把 2025 年的资本支出上调到 910-930 亿美元；Meta 亦上修 2025 年资本支出至 700-720 亿美元，并指出 2026 年还将显著成长；Amazon（亚马逊）则调升 2025 年资本支出预估至 1250 亿美元。2026年，AI服务器会变得不可估量的贵。从GPU功耗突破到液冷、供电、PCB 的全链条升级，再到代工厂产能与成本的同步提升，每一环都在推高最终价格；而CSPs的持续投入，又让这场 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