2035年车队规模或达百万!卖车基本盘趋颓之际 Robotaxi将拯救特斯拉(TSLA.US)?

智通财经2025-12-16

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利预计，特斯拉(TSLA.US)将在2026年显著扩大其Robotaxi(自动驾驶出租车)车队规模。大摩分析师安德鲁·佩尔科科及其团队预计，到2026年上路运营的特斯拉Robotaxi车队规模将增至1000辆，远高于目前的约50至150辆。该行还预测，到2035年底，特斯拉将在多个城市拥有100万辆上路的Robotaxi。尽管特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山推广Robotaxi...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382312.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利预计，特斯拉(TSLA.US)将在2026年显著扩大其Robotaxi(自动驾驶出租车)车队规模。大摩分析师安德鲁·佩尔科科及其团队预计，到2026年上路运营的特斯拉Robotaxi车队规模将增至1000辆，远高于目前的约50至150辆。该行还预测，到2035年底，特斯拉将在多个城市拥有100万辆上路的Robotaxi。尽管特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山推广Robotaxi...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382312.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2602419157.SGD","symbol_name":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) 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Will Robotaxi save Tesla (TSLA.US) when the fundamentals of car sales are declining?","themeId":"c0ce57423b938bb8ef7d56257063b9eb","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利预计，特斯拉(TSLA.US)将在2026年显著扩大其Robotaxi(自动驾驶出租车)车队规模。大摩分析师安德鲁·佩尔科科及其团队预计，到2026年上路运营的特斯拉Robotaxi车队规模将增至1000辆，远高于目前的约50至150辆。该行还预测，到2035年底，特斯拉将在多个城市拥有100万辆上路的Robotaxi。尽管特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山推广Robotaxi业务时总体上采取谨慎态度，但该公司近期在移除安全监督员方面已取得进展。特斯拉首席执行官马斯克于上周日证实，该公司已在得克萨斯州奥斯汀启动无人驾驶Robotaxi路测，测试车辆内未配备任何乘员。值得一提的是，马斯克上周就确认，“将在未来三周内从车辆中移除安全监督员”。自今年6月Robotax车队正式推出以来，特斯拉一直致力于在年底前实现完全无人驾驶的载客服务。就Robotaxi项目而言，这一进展意义重大，表明该公司的努力正逐步取得成果。特斯拉一直在全力以赴扩大Robotaxi车队规模，以应对平台所面临的巨大市场需求。马斯克此前在社交媒体上表示，特斯拉Robotaxi服务将固定收取4.20美元的统一费用。他强调，该公司在安全方面“格外谨慎”，特斯拉将配备专业团队实施远程监控干预，保障试运营的安全性。马斯克表示，Robotaxi不仅是一项服务，更是“个人交通的终极形式”，能让出行更安全、高效、便宜。Robotaxi将为特斯拉带来巨大收益，是“万亿美元级机会”。马斯克还表示，Robotaxi车队可实现高利用率(每车每周运行超40小时)，毛利率可能高达70%—80%，远超传统汽车业务。马斯克称，特斯拉的目标是让无人驾驶车辆比人类驾驶安全10倍以上。他提到，奥斯汀试点的安全员配置只是过渡措施，最终将实现完全无人驾驶。对于判断特斯拉Robotaxi项目是否步入正轨，大摩分析师安德鲁·佩尔科科列出了三个最关键催化剂：(1)向公众开放无需安全监督员的Robotaxi服务。时间表尚不明确，但特斯拉似乎日益临近实现目标。(2)无安全监督员情况下的安全指标提升。随着2026年在新的州、市扩展业务，特斯拉在无安全监督员情况下提升行驶里程规模时改善安全指标的能力至关重要。(3)Cybercab于2026年4月启动生产。特斯拉Cybercab是一款专用定制车辆(无方向盘或踏板，仅设两座)，预计将通过其先进的一体化拆箱式制造工艺生产，这将进一步降低成本，从而随时间推移加速推广。据悉，大摩对特斯拉的股票评级为“持股观望”，目标价为425美元。卖车基本盘仍陷泥潭特斯拉在推进Robotaxi业务方面已更进一步，马斯克今年大部分精力则都集中在该公司的机器人业务布局，以及推动股东批准其新拟定的万亿级薪酬方案上。但与此同时，特斯拉的主营业务——汽车销售——的前景却正日趋黯淡。这家电动汽车制造商在多个主要市场均面临销售压力。11月，特斯拉在欧洲主要市场的销量下滑进一步恶化，即便多国电动车需求强劲增长，也未能阻止这家由马斯克掌舵的公司在欧洲的市场份额继续流失。根据法国汽车制造商协会数据，特斯拉在法国的11月新车销量大跌58%，仅略低于1600辆。在丹麦，特斯拉销量暴跌49%;在瑞典更是锐减59%，连续多个季度呈现疲态。尽管欧洲各大市场的电动车渗透率持续提高，特斯拉却未能同步受益。在法国，电动车市场份额11月大涨9个百分点至26%，但特斯拉却逆势下跌。在西班牙，特斯拉11月注册量下降8.7%。作为欧洲最大汽车市场的德国，纯电动车注册量在今年前10个月激增39%，但特斯拉同期销量却暴跌50%，远逊竞争对手。不过，在整个欧洲下行趋势中，挪威成为罕见的例外。特斯拉11月在挪威的注册量暴增175%，部分原因是当地关于未来电动车税收优惠政策的不确定性，促使消费者提前购车。分析指出，特斯拉注册量疲弱的原因包括产品线老化、新车型更新周期拉长，以及CEO马斯克引发的政治地震，例如他对德国极右翼政党AfD的公开支持，以及其在特朗普政府中的活动。这些因素削弱部分欧洲消费者对品牌的好感。与此同时，特斯拉与欧洲监管机构在驾驶辅助系统“完全自动驾驶(FSD)”的安全性和宣传问题上持续对峙，也进一步影响其市场表现。在特斯拉的大本营，销量表现同样惨淡。根据考克斯汽车(Cox Automotive)发布的最新估算，特斯拉11月在美国市场仅售出约39,800辆车。这一数字较2024年11月的51,513辆交付量下滑约23%，据称也是特斯拉自2022年1月以来美国市场的最低月销量。需注意的是，特斯拉不公布月度销量数据，上述数值均为基于考克斯汽车收集的数据得出的估算值。尽管特斯拉通过加大折扣力度试图减轻冲击，但受联邦电动车税收抵免政策到期影响，市场仍出现明显调整。自9月底联邦电动车税收抵免政策到期后，美国电动车市场便陷入一定程度的混乱。此前市场已预期Q3抢购潮后会出现余热消退期，但11月的销量数据仍显惨淡。在7,500美元联邦税收抵免政策取消后，特斯拉于10月推出了Model 3和Model Y的全新“标准版”车型，售价较此前的基础版低约5,000美元，以弥补税收抵免取消带来的损失。这些新车型预计将从明年开始对销量产生更显著的贡献。不过，考克斯汽车认为，这一策略的影响可能有限。该公司行业洞察总监斯蒂芬妮・巴尔德斯・斯特雷蒂指出：“销量下滑显然表明，这款本应在税收抵免到期后提振销量的标准版车型需求不足。此外，标准版的销售还在蚕食高端版的销量，尤其是Model 3的高端版本。”值得一提的是，尽管特斯拉11月美国销量同比下滑23%稍显刺眼，但特斯拉的抗风险能力实际上优于其他电动车企业。据悉，11月美国整体电动车销量暴跌超41%。由于特斯拉的下滑幅度小于竞争对手，其市场份额反而从去年同期的43.1%升至56.7%。大多数其他车企严重依赖税收抵免政策清理电动车库存，而失去这一政策支持后，它们的需求下滑速度远快于特斯拉。中国市场则是为数不多的亮点之一。根据中国乘联会本月初公布的初步数据，特斯拉上海工厂11月售出86,700辆汽车，较去年同期增长10%。在特斯拉全球销售普遍下滑的背景下，其中国工厂的出货量在今年仅实现了第三次增长。这是该公司今年第二高的出货量，仅次于9月的批发量。此次增长成为特斯拉今年在中国市场的一个罕见亮点。该公司目前正面临全球销量预计将连续第二年下降的局面。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2591980369","isCrawlerRequest":true}