黄金上涨，白银调整！机构怎么看？

券商中国12-14

今年以来，贵金属在大类资产中表现格外抢眼。其中，金价年内大涨60%，银价更是翻倍有余。在连续多日上涨后，金银走势再次出现分化，银价突发剧烈调整。展望明年，机构显然更加看好黄金，高盛甚至喊出4900美元/盎司。黄金逼近前高当地时间12月12日，海外贵金属市场呈现冲高回落，黄金守住涨势、逼近前高，银价收盘大跌。伦敦金当日上涨0.47%报4299.29美元/盎司，伦敦银则下跌2.5%、收报61.92美元...

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What do institutions think?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ZIJMF":0.9,"02899":0.9,"01787":0.9},"content_text":"今年以来，贵金属在大类资产中表现格外抢眼。其中，金价年内大涨60%，银价更是翻倍有余。在连续多日上涨后，金银走势再次出现分化，银价突发剧烈调整。展望明年，机构显然更加看好黄金，高盛甚至喊出4900美元/盎司。黄金逼近前高当地时间12月12日，海外贵金属市场呈现冲高回落，黄金守住涨势、逼近前高，银价收盘大跌。伦敦金当日上涨0.47%报4299.29美元/盎司，伦敦银则下跌2.5%、收报61.92美元/盎司。前者年初至今涨幅已达63.83%，后者今年涨幅高达114.35%。值得注意的是，伦敦银盘中一度跳水超过3%，纽约商品交易所白银期货跌幅更大、收盘下跌3.88%。机构继续看好黄金瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究部主管Carsten Menke分析白银时指出，白银向来以剧烈而迅速的价格波动著称。Carsten Menke表示，白银涨势重启有两个触发因素：第一，白银被列入美国关键矿产清单。尽管这一消息并未立即改变供需格局，却在白银市场引发热烈反响。在许多市场参与者看来，此举印证了白银作为一种面临结构性短缺风险的金属的角色。瑞士宝盛对此评估持保留态度，因为太阳能产业带来的结构性需求提振或将逐步消退。全球太阳能电池产能已足以支撑能源转型，且多国电网无法承载更大规模装机。第二，市场此前对美联储年内再度降息的预期再次上升。由于白银对美国利率的变化表现出高度的敏感性，这一转变可能提振了看涨的市场情绪，从而提振了价格。尽管白银的基本面整体向好，但价格的反应似乎过大。在美国经济增长放缓、美国利率下行和美元走弱的背景下，投资需求应会保持稳健。这一背景也应利好黄金，不过最近黄金的表现不如白银强劲。因此，黄金/白银价格比从11月初的83快速下降。Carsten Menke认为，这表明白银价格上涨过快、幅度过大。因此，战术性地将对白银的观点下调至中性，对黄金则维持建设性看法。相对白银，机构显然更加看好黄金。高盛认为，如果家庭或机构能够切实增加黄金持有量以作为风险分散手段，尤其是在全球资金流入形势充满不确定性的情况下，包括对财政前景的担忧时，那么这些资金流入可能会“大幅推高”小规模黄金市场的价格。该行预测，到2026年底，黄金价格将达到4900美元/盎司，但同时表示，如果私营不满的购买量超出近年来一直主导需求的央行范围，那么这一预测还将存在“显著的上涨风险”。世界黄金协会出，2025年黄金表现卓越，全年创下逾50次历史新高，累计涨幅超60%。这一强劲表现得益于多重因素的共同推动，包括地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧、美元走弱以及持续上涨的金价势能。投资者与各经济体央行纷纷增持黄金，以寻求资产的多元与稳定。在世界黄金协会看来，展望2026年，持续的地缘经济不确定性将继续影响黄金市场前景。金价大体反映了市场对宏观经济的共识预期，若当前环境保持不变，金价可能继续维持区间波动。然而参照今年的趋势来看，2026年黄金表现很可能再度出人意料。若经济增长放缓且利率进一步下行，黄金或将实现温和上涨；倘若全球风险攀升导致经济严重衰退，黄金则可能迎来强劲涨势。相反，若特朗普政府的政策取得显著成效，推动经济加速增长且地缘政治风险下降，则将带动利率上升与美元走强，从而对金价构成压力。央行购金需求与回收金供应趋势等其他因素亦可能影响市场动态。最重要的是，在市场持续波动的背景下，黄金作为投资组合多元化工具与资产稳定器的核心作用依然至关重要。责编：罗晓霞","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2591865981","isCrawlerRequest":true}