满分100考了110，博通股价暴跌对AI算力的启示

估值之家12-15

北京时间12月12日美股开盘前，博通(AVGO.US)公布了FY2025Q4财报（指8月3日~11月2日这三个月），同时召开了Earnings Call。随着博通财报的披露，博通股价当日放量暴跌11.43%。图片说明：财报后博通放量暴跌11.43%，数据来源于Wind受博通股价大跌影响，美股AI算力板块周五集体迎来了大幅调整，权重股方面，英伟达、AMD、台积电等AI算力权重股分别下跌3%~5%。...

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Energy等核电、储能公司股价跌幅超过7%。而部分被受争议的第三方算力租赁公司，如甲骨文、CoreWeave等，股价就只能用一塌糊涂来形容了。图片说明：美股AI基础设施主题ETF暴跌6.14%，数据来源于Wind满分100分，考了110分回顾博通财报，得益于AI半导体收入同比增长74%，博通于FY2025Q4实现营业收入180亿美元，同比增长28%，环比增长+12%，创下历史新高。实现经调整后EBITDA约122亿美元，同比增长34%，环比增长14%，EBITDA利润率68%。实现自由现金流约75亿美元，同比增长36%。图片说明：博通FY2025Q4财务摘要，数据来源于公司公告指引方面，得益于定制ASIC和以太网AI交换机需求猛增，博通预计FY2026Q1实现营业收入191亿美元，环比增长6%，调整后的EBITDA为67%。目前AI相关产品（ASIC芯片、交换机、DSP、光学组件等）的在手订单已超过730亿美元，预计将在未来6个季度内交付。博通曾在FY2025Q3的Earnings Call中表示，博通积压订单总额有1100亿美元，其中有至少50%是AI相关的产品。换句话说，FY2025Q3博通AI相关产品的积压订单超过550亿美元，而FY2025Q4博通AI相关产品的积压订单环比增长了约180亿美元。图片说明：博通FY2025Q3中AI产品积压订单不低于550亿美元，数据来源于公司公告值得注意的是，博通曾于FY2025Q3中给出FY2025Q4的业绩指引，彼时预期FY2025Q4实现174亿美元营业收入和116亿美元EBITDA，实际FY2025Q4实现了180亿美元营业收入和122亿美元EBITDA，较FY2025Q3业绩指引分别高出了3.4%和4.3%。图片说明：博通FY2025Q3中给出关于FY2025Q4的业绩指引，数据来源于公司公告换句话说，在满分为100分的情况下，博通实际上考了110分，但市场仍然不愿意为此而喝彩，甚至还选择了用脚投票。业绩交流会中的重要增量信息在Earnings Call中，博通还透露出一些重要增量信息，估值之家在这里进行简要论述。首先是谷歌TPU的订单在加速增长。首先，谷歌不仅自己使用TPU，还将TPU算力租赁给苹果等外部客户使用。其次，Anthropic在FY2025Q3时向博通下了100亿美元的TPU机架订单，在FY2025Q4又向博通追加了110亿美元的TPU机架订单，预计于2026年底交付。图片说明：博通关于TPU的部分表述，数据来源于公司公告博通计划开始出售包含ASIC、机架、交换机在内的一整套算力系统，而这可能会适当降低博通的毛利率，预计FY2026Q1的毛利率将下降100个bp，一方面因为AI收入占比提高（AI硬件毛利率低于软件业务），另一方面因为有部分组件并非博通自产（如HBM、电源等等），但是由于运营杠杆效应，营业利润的绝对金额将继续强劲增长。图片说明：博通关于毛利率的部分表述，数据来源于公司公告博通股价暴跌对AI算力的启示不管是财报上的数字、还是CEO在Earnings Call中的表态，无论博通如何Beat，似乎华尔街还是不太愿意买账，你甚至都很难找到为什么华尔街的负面情绪如此之高的原因：到底是在挑剔什么？还是对哪里不太满意？是认为交付速度太慢了吗？但这似乎并不是博通的问题，否则英伟达就不会计划在12月中旬于美国加州圣克拉拉总部举办一场闭门峰会，聚焦解决数据中心电力短缺问题。是认为AI业务的增速太低了吗？似乎也不是，无论同比角度还是环比角度，都在加速增长，FY2026Q1的AI业务同比增速指引甚至超过了100%。更重要的是，博通已经不是第一个财报后大跌的公司了，前面有英伟达，更前面的还有甲骨文、CoreWeave等等一批公司，他们都用亮眼的财报换取了华尔街的用脚投票。一个可能的解释是，华尔街想看到的不是满分100分，你可以考120分，而是希望看到你可以考180分。或许还有一个可能的解释是，华尔街现在也患上了恐高症，对于订单的可持续性以及景气度的可持续性，已经开始存疑了。回到A股市场，由于AI算力产业链公司已经牢牢占据A股市场多年的主线地位，因此华尔街对于博通的股价反馈，对于A股来说，具有重要参考意义：换句话说，无论你对AI的未来有多么乐观，现在都应该保持适当的警惕了。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like 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