银行业周度追踪2025年第49周：如何理解银行股年末资金面波动？

长江证券12-15

年底银行股资金面波动率放大，银行指数基金连续赎回银行股四季度初上涨与近期调整，主要反映年末交易性资金的配置行为波动。10 月上旬银行指数基金获得大幅流入，10 月17 日单周净流入金额高达82 亿元，创近年来周度历史新高。但最近连续五周，银行指数基金持续净流出，并且近两周流出力度扩大，本周净流出26 亿元。我们预计主要反映季度和季末对于市场风险偏好的预期变化，同时基金投资分类为TPL 账户，预计...

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亿元。我们预计主要反映季度和季末对于市场风险偏好的预期变化，同时基金投资分类为TPL 账户，预计保险等机构年底也存在兑现收益的需要。我们认为跨年节点过后，配置力量将重新推升银行股估值及银行指数基金规模。同时，中期分红交易预计也存在影响。近期四大国有行陆续完成中期分红除净，历史来看除净日后通常股价可能调整，2025 年初中期分红时也出现过类似短期波动，今年四大国有行中期分红除净日提前至12 月。预计后续交通银行、邮储银行、招商银行、兴业银行等大型银行也将在年底、年初、春节前陆续实施中期分红除净，从长期角度，如果除净等交易因素造成股价调整，通常是长线资金较好的配置时点。中央经济工作会议：持续推进重点领域风险化解和中小机构改革12 月10 日至11 日，中央经济工作会议召开。宏观政策方面，扩大内需、提振消费仍是首要重点工作，同时强调关注居民增收，提升消费能力、释放消费需求。推进重点风险领域化解仍然是明年金融工作重点方向。房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构风险依然是需要关注的重点领域。其中针对房地产市场，稳定房价、改善供需格局是明年重点工作，目前房地产销售依然疲弱、房价跌幅压力加大，市场持续关注房价下行带来的按揭贷款风险压力，关注地产领域增量政策情况。金融供给侧改革仍是中长期方向。2023 年中央金融工作会议定调深化金融供给侧改革为未来5 年工作主线，近年高层会议多次强调推动中小金融机构改革化险，农村金融机构整合步伐不断加快。今年中央经济工作会议再次强调，推进中小机构减量提质，预计未来中小机构改革重组将加速推进，推动风险机构出清，行业供给格局优化。本周银行指数累计下跌1.6%，相较沪深300/创业板指数超额收益-1.5%/-4.3%本周银行板块连续第四周回调，主要市场风险偏好进一步回升造成资金行为波动，预计前期寻求防御的活跃资金（主动公募及机构配置的指数基金等）继续流出。此外大型银行陆续完成中期分红除净，交易性资金在除净日后通常集中流出。个股层面，H 股渣打集团、汇丰控股再创新高，预计反映海外市场对外资大型银行ROTE 回升、分红回购回报率持续提高的重估；而中期分红完成除净的H 股国有行明显回调。本周A 股大行调整后股息率继续回升，H 股股息率优势依然突出。截至12 月12 日，六大国有行A 股平均股息率回升至3.94%，相较10 年期国债收益率利差扩大至210BP，H 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