盈利黑马变估值弃子？度小满 3000 元获客成本刺痛行业：蚂蚁京东金融亦陷转型泥沼

破浪资本2025-12-16

点击上方蓝字→“…”→设为星标⭐当《小额贷款公司监督管理暂行办法》筑牢“全面持牌经营”的底线，当暴力催收、监管套利等灰色路径被彻底封堵，互联网金融行业的野蛮生长时代正式落幕。如今，行业三大巨头正陷入相似的转型困局：蚂蚁金服6350亿估值背后，信贷护城河遭抖音、美团蚕食；京东金融斥32.5亿拿下消金牌照补全版图，却难破流量瓶颈；度小满以日均盈利235万元成“盈利黑马”，估值却较巅峰近乎腰斩。合规红线...

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The customer acquisition cost of Du Xiaoman 3,000 yuan stings the industry: Ant JD Finance is also stuck in the quagmire of transformation","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"JD":0.6,"09618":1.5},"content_text":"点击上方蓝字→“…”→设为星标⭐当《小额贷款公司监督管理暂行办法》筑牢“全面持牌经营”的底线，当暴力催收、监管套利等灰色路径被彻底封堵，互联网金融行业的野蛮生长时代正式落幕。如今，行业三大巨头正陷入相似的转型困局：蚂蚁金服6350亿估值背后，信贷护城河遭抖音、美团蚕食；京东金融斥32.5亿拿下消金牌照补全版图，却难破流量瓶颈；度小满以日均盈利235万元成“盈利黑马”，估值却较巅峰近乎腰斩。合规红线收紧与场景生态缺失的双重枷锁，正倒逼行业巨头重新回答一个核心命题：金融科技的本质，究竟是科技赋能还是规模放贷？01蚂蚁金服信贷霸权松动作为行业标杆的蚂蚁金服，正经历最深刻的战略转向。2025年，CEO韩歆毅将“数字医疗健康事业部”升级为“健康事业群”，与支付宝、数字支付等并列为五大核心板块，标志着这家金融科技巨头正式将医疗健康定为第二增长曲线。这一转型并非心血来潮，而是基于扎实的生态积累。目前支付宝已覆盖8亿医疗用户，连接全国九成三级医院，形成挂号、医保支付、买药的一站式服务闭环；AI健康管家AQ月活突破千万，跻身AI原生应用榜前十；通过全资收购“互联网医疗鼻祖”好大夫在线，更打通了“AI咨询+在线问诊+线下就医”的全链路服务。医疗场景的深度布局，被业内视为蚂蚁跳出“信贷依赖”的关键一步。但信贷业务的“基本盘”正遭遇前所未有的冲击。曾创下1.7万亿元余额规模的信贷业务，虽经整改后仍以超20%的占比位居持牌消金机构第一，1.78%的不良率也优于同行，但增速已明显放缓，2024年净利润较巅峰时期回落超40%。抖音“放心借”、美团信贷凭借高频场景分食用户，蚂蚁的流量壁垒被持续削弱。更值得关注的是，业内对其技术壁垒的争议从未停止。有分析指出，腾讯、字节等大厂已具备同类大数据风控能力，蚂蚁的核心优势仍依赖支付宝的流量生态而非独家技术。监管高压仍是悬顶之剑。从2020年上市折戟到资本充足率整改，蚂蚁“高杠杆-ABS-再放贷”的传统模式被严格限制，每一步业务扩张都需在合规框架内谨慎推进。医疗健康赛道的转型，既是寻求新增长的主动布局，也是应对监管压力的被动突围。02京东金融流量困局难破相较于蚂蚁的生态谋变，京东金融的突围路径更聚焦于“牌照补全”。2024年底，京东集团斥资32.5亿元收购捷信消金65%股权，更名天津京东消费金融有限公司，并派驻工行一级分行原副行长李波出任董事长，终于补齐了消费金融牌照的关键拼图。这一动作彻底改变了京东金融的业务格局。此前“京东白条”需依赖小贷牌照与银行合作开展，持牌后不仅可拓宽资金来源，更能合规开展全国性消费信贷业务，2025年已将消费贷额度提升至30万元，覆盖汽车、教育等大额场景。依托京东商城的电商底盘，其“消费+金融”的协同优势进一步凸显，这也是京东金融相较于同行的核心壁垒。但牌照解决不了所有问题，流量短板仍是致命伤。尽管京东年度活跃用户数已突破7亿，但相较于腾讯、阿里仍有差距，且缺乏外卖、社交等高频流量入口。为破局发起的外卖业务，面对美团日均1.2亿单的体量，至今未能形成有效冲击。更严重的是，早年战略摇摆留下的后遗症仍在发酵：2016年剥离金融业务谋求独立上市，2020年又增资收回控制权，多次动荡导致“白条之父”许凌等核心人才流失，业务连续性受损。接手的历史包袱更让京东消金步履维艰。2025年中报显示，公司未分配利润为-36.92亿元，这意味着需先消化捷信消金的遗留亏损。而消费金融市场已进入红海，蚂蚁消金以3137.51亿元总资产位居行业第一，中邮、建信等持牌机构也在加码布局，仅凭电商场景与一张牌照，京东金融的突围之路并不平坦。03度小满日赚235万难掩根基之危与蚂蚁、京东的“巨头烦恼”不同，度小满以“盈利黑马”的姿态刷屏，却深陷“高盈利低估值”的悖论。据《2025年度第一期满航资产支持票据定向募集说明书》披露，2024年度小满营收22.57亿元，同比增长24.70%；净利润8.59亿元，同比暴增306.10%，折算日均盈利235万元，净资产收益率达11.08%的历史峰值。亮眼业绩源于两大核心优势：百度AI基因支撑的风控体系，2024年末消费贷不良率1.09%、经营贷不良率0.89%，远低于行业1.97%的平均水平；高效的资产证券化运作，ABS/ABN产品余额达245.38亿元，6天即可完成90亿元ABS审批，资金周转效率远超同行。但剥开盈利外衣，场景缺失的根基性短板暴露无遗。脱胎于百度的度小满，既无阿里电商生态，也无腾讯社交流量，更无美团本地生活场景，只能靠独立信贷App“单打独斗”。为弥补劣势，度小满选择“烧钱换流量”：2025年一季度综艺露出时长超3.8万秒居行业第一，2024年3-9月互联网广告投放1.6亿元，日均耗资近90万元，还冠名斯诺克赛事、牵手亚足联、聘请陈建斌代言。高营销投入换来了品牌声量，却推高了获客成本。行业数据显示，其新客户转化成本最高近3000元，相当于拉一名用户要烧掉一部手机的钱。更致命的是合规风险频发，黑猫投诉平台上关于度小满的投诉超3.6万条，“暴力催收”“恶意扣款”成高频词，台湾艺人刘乐妍曾因被误填为紧急联系人遭持续骚扰。监管罚单也接踵而至：因未落实实名审核、违规向在校学生放贷等六项行为被央行罚121万元，保险经纪业务因欺骗投保人被罚56万元。市场用脚投票，2024年胡润全球独角兽榜显示，度小满估值仅110亿元，较2019年的200亿元缩水近半，全球排名从第84位暴跌至第759位。出海墨西哥、印尼的尝试也收效甚微，海外用户不足百万，当地监管收紧更让这场远征前景渺茫。04行业下半场：告别野蛮生长三大巨头的挣扎，折射出整个行业的转型阵痛。过去十年，互联网金融靠流量红利、监管套利实现爆发式增长，“高息放贷+暴力催收”的模式虽能快速盈利，却偏离了金融服务实体经济的本质。如今监管框架完善，持牌经营成为底线，行业正式进入“拼合规、拼生态、拼科技”的下半场。对于巨头而言，破局路径已逐渐清晰：蚂蚁金服需证明医疗健康场景能真正转化为金融服务的流量入口，而非简单的业务叠加；京东金融要解决“低频电商场景”与“高频金融需求”的匹配难题，外卖业务的突围至关重要；度小满则必须在“降获客成本”与“守合规底线”间找到平衡，否则高盈利难以持续。财富观研认为，未来互联网金融企业的核心竞争力，将不再是放贷规模与盈利增速，而是科技对风险的管控能力、场景对需求的挖掘能力、合规对经营的保障能力。当潮水褪去，那些靠灰色路径盈利的玩家终将被淘汰，留下的只会是既懂金融规律、又善用科技工具、更敬畏监管红线的真正强者。蚂蚁的医疗转型能否成功？京东金融的牌照优势能否转化为市场优势？度小满能否摆脱“高盈利低估值”的悖论？三大巨头的突围战，仍在持续上演。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2591675515","isCrawlerRequest":true}