四大支柱驱动长期增长!瑞银描绘Shopify(SHOP.US)未来十年蓝图：GMV与毛利润年复合增速均有望超15%

智通财经2025-12-16

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银在近日发布的研报中预测，基于对当前及2035年预测市场规模与增长率、市场份额预测区间、单位经济效益、支付渗透率及附加服务搭载率的假设，Shopify(SHOP.US)有望在2025年至2035年期间实现商品交易总额(GMV)约15-21%的年复合增长率，同时毛利润年复合增长率预计达到15-20%。该行予Shopify“中性”评级，12个月目标价为165美元。瑞银表示，其分析...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2591660674?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-16 15:02","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2591660674","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"四大支柱驱动长期增长!瑞银描绘Shopify(SHOP.US)未来十年蓝图：GMV与毛利润年复合增速均有望超15%","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，瑞银在近日发布的研报中预测，基于对当前及2035年预测市场规模与增长率、市场份额预测区间、单位经济效益、支付渗透率及附加服务搭载率的假设，Shopify(SHOP.US)有望在2025年至2035年期间实现商品交易总额(GMV)约15-21%的年复合增长率，同时毛利润年复合增长率预计达到15-20%。该行予Shopify“中性”评级，12个月目标价为165美元。瑞银表示，其分析...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382031.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>四大支柱驱动长期增长!瑞银描绘Shopify(SHOP.US)未来十年蓝图：GMV与毛利润年复合增速均有望超15%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n四大支柱驱动长期增长!瑞银描绘Shopify(SHOP.US)未来十年蓝图：GMV与毛利润年复合增速均有望超15%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-16 15:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382031.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，瑞银在近日发布的研报中预测，基于对当前及2035年预测市场规模与增长率、市场份额预测区间、单位经济效益、支付渗透率及附加服务搭载率的假设，Shopify(SHOP.US)有望在2025年至2035年期间实现商品交易总额(GMV)约15-21%的年复合增长率，同时毛利润年复合增长率预计达到15-20%。该行予Shopify“中性”评级，12个月目标价为165美元。瑞银表示，其分析...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382031.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4551","symbol_name":"寇图资本持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1382031.html","article_id":"2591660674","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2591660674","pubTimestamp":1765868523,"columns":[{"name":"行业数据","id":30,"label_key":"dataReport"}],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，瑞银在近日发布的研报中预测，基于对当前及2035年预测市场规模与增长率、市场份额预测区间、单位经济效益、支付渗透率及附加服务搭载率的假设，Shopify有望在2025年至2035年期间实现商品交易总额约15-21%的年复合增长率，同时毛利润年复合增长率预计达到15-20%。该行予Shopify“中性”评级，12个月目标价为165美元。瑞银指出，Shopify在企业、国际、线下POS及B2B这四大具备广阔市场潜力的增长支柱方面均取得成功。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4524":"宅经济概念","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","BK4613":"AI应用软件","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4588":"碎股","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"translate_title":"Four pillars drive long-term growth! UBS draws a blueprint for Shopify (SHOP.US) in the next ten years: the compound annual growth rate of GMV and gross profit is expected to exceed 15%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SHOP":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，瑞银在近日发布的研报中预测，基于对当前及2035年预测市场规模与增长率、市场份额预测区间、单位经济效益、支付渗透率及附加服务搭载率的假设，Shopify(SHOP.US)有望在2025年至2035年期间实现商品交易总额(GMV)约15-21%的年复合增长率，同时毛利润年复合增长率预计达到15-20%。该行予Shopify“中性”评级，12个月目标价为165美元。瑞银表示，其分析拆解了Shopify各业务板块通过“订阅解决方案”和“商家解决方案”产生的收入与毛利润贡献，并综合考虑了不同层级的软件即服务搭载率、支付总额渗透率、支付净收益率、交易手续费收入及其他商家服务，以及新产品的潜在贡献。该行最终得出2025-2035年预测期间毛利润年复合增长率的区间约为15-20%。其中，国际中小企业板块贡献约650-750个基点(由于其市场规模基数较大、渗透率显著偏低以及基于净收益率的中小企业经济效应，其影响尤为突出)，北美核心中小企业板块贡献约400-500个基点，企业板块贡献约200-300个基点，线下POS板块贡献约100-200个基点，B2B板块贡献约50个基点，新产品(如广告潜力)贡献约50-150个基点。支撑Shopify毛利润增长的底层因素包括：支付渗透率的提升(尽管因业务结构变化导致支付净收益率有所下降而被部分抵消)，预计订阅与其他商家服务毛利润率的逐年小幅提升(源于支付渗透率与定价的双重作用)，以及新产品贡献的假设(若无新产品推出，商品交易总额与毛利润增长之间的差距将略大)。瑞银指出，Shopify在企业、国际、线下POS及B2B这四大具备广阔市场潜力的增长支柱方面均取得成功。与此同时，Shopify具备充分优势，从该行所认为的未来十年最重要的投资主题中获益，这些主题包括：软件与支付的交汇融合，以及嵌入生态、增强变现能力的金融服务与商业赋能解决方案。瑞银补充称，Shopify持续在三个关键维度取得成功：1)产品深度巩固护城河——除基于其专有软件构建的支付业务实现变现外，Shopify还推出了多种嵌入式金融服务(包括资金、余额等)以及涵盖营销、物流、受众、跨境解决方案、智能商务合作等在内的商业赋能解决方案;2)客户覆盖广度不断扩展——在客户类型层面(为中小企业和企业商户均提供最强或领先的商业解决方案)、渠道层面(稳居零售电商领域领导者地位，同时在线下POS市场持续获取份额)以及地域覆盖层面(截至2024年底，约50%的商户位于北美以外地区)，并在跨境电商领域持续发力;3)构建双向网络——消费者端通过Shop Pay吸引超过2亿注册用户，企业商户采用率不断提升，而Shop应用则持续推动消费者参与度并展现广告业务潜力。该行相信，Shopify在上述每个领域均存在进一步增长的空间，其持续的成长性有望推动盈利预测不断上调。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2591660674","isCrawlerRequest":true}