饿了么闪现美国街头，美团净亏200亿！外卖市场谁与争锋

洞见研报行业前沿2025-12-16

近日，外卖市场再起“腥风”：美团被曝补贴最热的暑期净亏损近200亿元，创历史之最；美国洛杉矶街头惊现一辆挂着“饿了么”蓝色配送箱的电动车，引发网友热议。当事人澄清：“不是平台出海，是我自己把装备带过去谋生，每日20-30单，单日收益200-300美金。”（资料来源：微博）国内的外卖激烈内卷“战争”面对海外尚未“破局”的蓝海机遇，恰好折射出中国外卖行业当下的真实处境，那究竟该如何“洗牌重生”？让我们...

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Who competes with the food delivery market?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"03690":1.5,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"MPNGY":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"09988":1.5,"METmain":0.6,"BABA":0.6},"content_text":"近日，外卖市场再起“腥风”：美团被曝补贴最热的暑期净亏损近200亿元，创历史之最；美国洛杉矶街头惊现一辆挂着“饿了么”蓝色配送箱的电动车，引发网友热议。当事人澄清：“不是平台出海，是我自己把装备带过去谋生，每日20-30单，单日收益200-300美金。”（资料来源：微博）国内的外卖激烈内卷“战争”面对海外尚未“破局”的蓝海机遇，恰好折射出中国外卖行业当下的真实处境，那究竟该如何“洗牌重生”？让我们浅谈一下外卖行业的市场未来发展路径与战略重构！01规模大但增速缓，进入“高质量转型期”2025年，由于京东加入外卖“战场，中国外卖市场迎来一次真正意义上的变量切换，市场整体订单规模从年初的1亿单左右增长至约2亿单，峰值时期接近3亿。（资料来源：一财商学院）京东外卖日均订单突破2500万；阿里迅速迎战整合淘宝闪购与饿了么后，日单逼近1亿；美团整体虽处在领先阶段，但优势不再绝对。表面看是份额之争，实则战场早已从“送餐”转向“送生活方式”。外卖不再是孤立业务，而是大消费生态的关键履约节点——阿里利用高德导流、淘宝闪购承接、仅支持支付宝、88VIP权益打通，形成“到店—到家—复购”的链路闭环；美团则押注闪购与医药，试图打造“万物到家”入口。虽然战场愈演愈烈，但三方都面临了同样困境：用户增长见顶、商家利润微薄、骑手保障不足、盈利遥遥无期。（资料来源：美团）02外卖为何集体承压？人心变了，规则也变了美团为何引来历史新高，表面是补贴战所导致的“后遗症”，实则是整个行业遭遇“内外夹击”——一边是用户和商家不再买账，一边是外部环境全面收紧。这场困局，得从“人心”和“规则”两个层面看。（1）人心变了：用户和商家，都不再无条件依赖平台用户从“图方便”转向“算得失”许多消费者虽通过疫情三年养成了外卖的习惯，但后疫情时代，消费者也开始越来越精打细算并崇尚食疗养生。自补贴退坡后，一单外卖常比堂食贵出约30%，配送费+包装费成为“隐形刺客”；“吃腻了”“不健康”也变成了外卖食品的新情绪和新标签。促使年轻人掀起“做饭热潮”，小红书话题#一人食#浏览量破百亿，可以看出当下年轻人的生活理念。便利不再是免死金牌，性价比、体验感、健康安全才是留存关键。（资料来源：中国中小商业企业协会）商家从“求曝光”转向“要利润”曾经中小餐饮几乎只能依赖外卖平台活命，现如今他们正悄然夺回主动权；微信小程序等私域工具的运营成本远低于平台动辄20%以上的抽佣；预制菜搭配自提模式在社区兴起，通过高频复购降低对第三方配送的依赖；连锁品牌也开始自建配送团队，以掌控服务体验与用户数据。平台正从“救命稻草”逐渐变成“成本负担”，商家与平台之间的议价权，正在发生静默却深刻的转移。（资料来源：探迹科技）模式本身走到瓶颈：“流量飞轮”转不动了外卖长期被当作超级入口——用低价订单拉新促活，再向酒旅、金融、闪购等高毛利业务导流。但现实是，这套逻辑正在失效：一方面，中国互联网交易用户规模已达7.8亿，逼近人口天花板，增量枯竭；另一方面，抖音、小红书等平台凭借“内容种草+即时下单”闭环，直接在兴趣场景中完成从发现到履约的转化，绕开了传统外卖平台的流量中转角色。结果就是，平台送得越多、补贴越狠，亏损越深，却难以换来真正的交叉消费和用户忠诚——飞轮不仅没加速，反而因负重而卡壳。（资料来源：千瓜数据）（2）规则变了：竞争、监管与技术，正在重塑游戏边界竞争格局已彻底洗牌，“美团+饿了么”双寡头时代正式终结一场多维度混战全面开启：抖音本地生活2024年GMV突破2200亿元，凭借短视频种草精准切入高客单价餐厅，强势抢夺优质商户资源；京东外卖以“全年免佣金”高调入局，倒逼行业重新思考抽佣与盈利模型；与此同时，锅圈、叮咚买菜等垂直品牌加速自建配送体系，减少对外卖平台的依赖。平台不再只是渠道，更成了可被绕过甚至替代的中间环节——外卖战场，正从两强对峙演变为生态级博弈。（资料来源：解数咨询）技术进入“青黄不接”期过去，平台依靠“密集人力+极致算法”将平均配送时长压缩至28分钟，但这一模式已逼近物理极限：骑手日均接单超过35单后，疲劳累积导致事故率显著上升；与此同时，城市交通拥堵持续加剧，反而抵消了调度优化带来的效率 gains；而被寄予厚望的无人机、无人车等自动化方案，仍停留在局部试点阶段，受限于法规、成本与场景复杂度，短期内难以规模化落地。旧引擎已然熄火，新引擎却还未真正点着——履约效率的天花板，正成为行业最难突破的瓶颈。（资料来源：头豹研究院）03快，已经不够了：外卖的未来在效率、纵深与共生当“30分钟送达”成为标配，“快”就不再是竞争力，而是入场券。行业正从速度竞赛转向效率重构、生态纵深与平台-骑手-商家共生的新阶段。进入“精耕时代”：从流量收割到价值共生一方面，借助AI优化路径规划、动态定价与库存预测，持续压降单均成本；另一方面，积极拓展非佣金收入——如美团“神会员”订阅服务、面向商家的SaaS工具和数据产品，逐步改善收入结构。更重要的是，生态协同成为竞争关键：美团整合闪购、买菜、打车，构建本地生活闭环；饿了么则依托阿里生态，联动高德、飞猪、天猫超市，打造“到店+到家+出行+零售”的超级入口。（资料来源：星图数据）下沉市场有机会，但必须“轻量化+本地化”县域和乡镇订单增速超20%，但这里不适合重资产骑手模式。更有效的路径是：整合社区小店、校园兼职、本地跑腿，用“拼单+代买+熟人推荐”降低履约成本。下沉不是复制一线，而是激活本地微循环。“一小一老”成新增长引擎Z世代追求便捷尝鲜，银发族依赖配送解决吃饭难题。平台需针对性优化服务——比如简化操作、推出慢病餐、加强配送关怀。增量不在数量，而在细分需求的满足深度。（资料来源：Mob研究院）你觉得未来谁能真正破局？是继续深耕国内的美团饿了么，还是借技术出海的“中国方案”？又或者，下一个颠覆者根本不在今天的牌桌上？","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2591609271","isCrawlerRequest":true}