崩了甲骨文，周五又崩了一个博通！泡沫真的会大范围扩散吗？

核心周期投研12-14 17:10

沃泽周期投资信条：投资就得干核心周期！核心周期里面找核心公司！作者｜德靖继上周四晚上甲骨文暴跌以后，周五博通又崩了。甲骨文看到博通崩了以后，认为自己好歹也得陪一个，周四晚上反弹的实体基本被吃完。现阶段留给人最大的念想在于：硬件核心英伟达、软件核心Palantir，在之前被唱空以后，依然维持在震荡区间内。并未出现下跌趋势持续的情况。今年以来，美国AI公司的发债规模已经超过2000亿美元。甲骨文是他们...

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Will the bubble really spread widely?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.5,"AVGO":1.5},"content_text":"沃泽周期投资信条：投资就得干核心周期！核心周期里面找核心公司！作者｜德靖继上周四晚上甲骨文暴跌以后，周五博通又崩了。甲骨文看到博通崩了以后，认为自己好歹也得陪一个，周四晚上反弹的实体基本被吃完。现阶段留给人最大的念想在于：硬件核心英伟达、软件核心Palantir，在之前被唱空以后，依然维持在震荡区间内。并未出现下跌趋势持续的情况。今年以来，美国AI公司的发债规模已经超过2000亿美元。甲骨文是他们的资本支出已经远超自由现金流的支撑能力，现金储备（约110亿美元）可能在2026年11月前就耗尽了。甲骨文的资本负债率高达86.33%；甲骨文的债务股本比高达500%（也就是债务是股东权益的5倍），远高于亚马逊（50%）和微软（30%）。甲骨文第二财季自由现金流为-100亿美元，远低于市场预期的-52亿美元。这就导致了市场对于泡沫的担忧。如果支出增加了，但是收益却没增加，泡沫能否持续？博通的业绩指引方面本质上是要好于甲骨文的。博通预测2026年第一季度总营收将达到191亿美元，调整后EBITDA将达到67%。陈福阳称，一季度的AI芯片收入将同比翻倍增长，增至82亿美元。那意味着AI芯片将贡献公司超过40%的收入，较市场普遍预期的69亿美元高将近19%。但毛利率下降了，同样让市场怀疑，如果你业绩增速快，但是利润降低，原本的估值模型就需要重新计算了。如果收益没增加，泡沫能否持续？值得重视的是目前来说全球收益率对公共债务的敏感性已经开始上升，市场对财政发展的敏感度有所提高。投资占GDP的比重升至约2%的峰值——与此前的重大技术周期相当——可能侵蚀储蓄与投资的平衡，并可能导致这种敏感度翻倍，即每1个百分点的债务-GDP比率上升，敏感度从2个基点增至3至4个基点，除非有其他缓解因素。高盛团队近期做了一篇债券敏感性分析的研报，（研报已经发送至中外研报群，加入星球后可加）更多由债务融资的资本支出可能会加剧这一趋势，尽管我们认为最终决定性因素还是整体的储蓄与投资平衡。根据我们经济学家的基准情景，美国的未来十年的债务与GDP之比，这种变化将使五年期五年期收益率的累积上行压力从基准的50个基点提升至多达80至100个基点。这也意味着泡沫到了一个极度敏感的阶段了。但反过来看，从债务的角度看，美股的重要科技股（英伟达、亚马逊、苹果、谷歌）依然具备良好的资产负债表及现金流，足以支撑它们明年的计划。从业绩的看博通的业绩增速也依然较好。从融资的债券市场看，距离5%的GDP占比还有较大的一旦距离。真正让市场担心的就是“市场的这种担心”，怀疑的种子一旦种下就需要一股更强的反向作用力带动。这种超级技术周期的泡沫破灭是我们无法做出预测的，但只要中国资本市场敢跟跌，我会第一时间跑路，即使被洗我也认了！落子无悔！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2591593668","isCrawlerRequest":true}