对话2026 | 食品饮料：柳暗花明又一村

华创证券研究2025-12-14

#2026年度展望柳暗花明又一村白酒：供需失衡正加速修正，底线价值更加坚实。25Q3头部酒企报表压力加速释放，“报表-动销”差额开始收敛，供需拐点已现。我们判断2026年白酒周期将加速筑底，持续观察渠道及酒企现金流、核心单品酒价两大指标。当前建议优选三类标的：一是优先布局大幅下修业绩风险较低的茅台、汾酒；二是精选今年有望确认业绩底部、且有望通过份额驱动的区域龙头，推荐古井，结合股息率布局五粮液，...

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