金属与材料行业周报：降息落地有色普涨

天风证券2025-12-14

基本金属：铜铝延续涨势，下游接货需求难提升。1）铜：本周重心继续上移，沪铜收于91550 元/吨。周内铜价再创新高，下游企业畏高情绪浓厚，接货需求相对疲弱。周内市场到货虽稍显不多，但部分仓库出库量较少，社库维持缓慢累库趋势，加之部分持货商出货情绪提升，上海市场现货升水快速走跌转至贴水行情运行，且由于广东市场库存较低，现货升水表现坚挺，沪粤价差有所扩大；下周来看，由于铜价大幅上涨走高，下游企业接货...

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元/吨。周内铜价再创新高，下游企业畏高情绪浓厚，接货需求相对疲弱。周内市场到货虽稍显不多，但部分仓库出库量较少，社库维持缓慢累库趋势，加之部分持货商出货情绪提升，上海市场现货升水快速走跌转至贴水行情运行，且由于广东市场库存较低，现货升水表现坚挺，沪粤价差有所扩大；下周来看，由于铜价大幅上涨走高，下游企业接货...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251214134736a6a04b8c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0828237510.HKD","symbol_name":"SCHRODER ISF BIC (BRAZ IN CH)\"A\" (HKD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251214134736a6a04b8c&s=b","article_id":"2591259652","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251214134736a6a04b8c&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, 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元/吨。铝锭社会库存降库，叠加经济数据托底以及宏观政策辅助，现货铝均价上涨。供应方面，行业理论开工产能继续增加。需求方面，本周铝棒、铝板行业产量减少，减量集中在甘肃、内蒙古以及福建地区。成本方面，预计本周电解铝理论成本减少，现货铝价上涨，本周电解铝理论利润较上周增加。库存方面，本周铝锭社会库存减少，目前库存59.93 万吨，较上周61.27 万吨减少1.34 万吨，LME 铝库存较上周减少，目前LME 铝库存52.08 万吨，较上周53.34 万吨减少1.26 万吨。建议关注：云铝股份、中孚实业、创新实业、南山铝业、神火股份、天山铝业、宏创控股、中国宏桥、中国铝业（A+H）等。贵金属：美联储降息靴子落地，金银价格继续强势运行。截至12 月11 日，国内99.95%黄金市场均价954.91元/克，较上周均价上涨0.42%，上海现货1#白银市场均价13905 元/千克，较上周均价上涨3.90%。周内尽管面临美国国债收益率上升和美元反弹的双重压力，但逢低买盘的强劲支撑，以及市场对美联储政策前景的期待，让黄金市场保持了相对稳定的态势。与黄金的稳健上涨相比，白银市场的表现更为耀眼，全球白银供应短缺叠加宏观利好加持，白银价格再创历史新高。我们看好降息周期中贵金属价格表现，建议关注：中国黄金国际，山东黄金，招金矿业，中金黄金，赤峰黄金，山金国际，湖南黄金，株冶集团等。小金属：钨价强势上涨。本周65 度黑钨精矿均价在36.85 万元/吨，较上周上调1.8 万元/吨；仲钨酸铵在54.5 万元/吨，较上周上调3.1 万元/吨，70 钨铁均价在51.1 万元/吨，较上周上调3.6 万元/吨，碳化钨粉在870 元/千克，较上周上调85 元/千克。当前市场价格上涨主要源于两方面支撑：一是原料供应趋紧，原料难采且成本高企，年底原料钨矿山减停产操作增加；二是基本面维持偏紧状态，持货商捂货惜售待涨，市场交投谨慎按需。综合来看，年底业者主动补库需求略增，整体市场成交达成尚可，参与者多持相对积极态度。供应商低位售货意愿较低，下游用户采购心态谨慎，预计钨价偏强。建议关注：中钨高新，厦门钨业，佳鑫国际资源，章源钨业。稀土永磁：价格震荡，静待后续出口修复。当前供给侧受原矿分离指标管控影响，稀土分离企业迎来严格管控，供应端整合加速。需求侧伴随通用许可证的下放，出口有望大幅修复。本周价格方面，本周轻稀土氧化镨钕环比-0.7%至57.9 万元/吨；中重稀土氧化镝环比-2.8%至137.34 万元/吨，氧化铽环比-2.2%至627 万/吨。当前分离厂整合逐步进行，加工费已上行至2 万以上，重视中长期分离厂“拔估值”。看长一点，板块大逻辑或将更为清晰，要足够重视上游供给重塑的产业趋势性机会，持续关注板块拔估值持续和基本面修复。建议关注磁材板块核心公司，宁波韵升、正海磁材、金力永磁等。能源金属：整体呈现震荡态势。本周电池级碳酸锂/电解钴/电解镍分别收至9.5/41.55/11.85 万元/吨，环比+3.26%/-0.12%/-1.41%。具体来看：锂：价格震荡，库存延续下降趋势。供应端来看，新增产能持续释放，伴随部分新增产线的逐步投产，预计12 月国内碳酸锂产量环比增长约3%。需求方面，储能需求保持强劲，动力电池市场季节性走弱，下游采购观望情绪较浓厚。整体来看，供给稳步增加，需求整体持稳，预计整体呈现去库，去库幅度或放缓。钴：价格维持高位运行。本周钴精矿CIF 到岸价稳定在22.8-23.1美元/磅。供应端，部分海外矿企成为试点企业，获批发运部分货物，但持货商依旧挺价，钴中间品价格上涨至为24.5-24.8 美元/磅。需求端，下游锂电池存一定刚需采购支撑原料价格，但整体交投稀少，成交氛围不足。往后看供应偏紧格局有望延续，价格高位震荡。镍：本周镍价低位震荡，国内库存明显增加。LME镍价重心滑落到14675 美元/吨附近。年末需求季节性疲软，本周现货成交平淡。宏观上，印尼以及美联储宏观消息多数利好，但价格重回基本面主导的下行态势。LME 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金属与材料行业周报：降息落地 有色普涨

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金属与材料行业周报：降息落地有色普涨