博通Q4财报超预期为何股价反跌？Meta或转向闭源引入阿里Qwen模型训练丨20251212从华尔街到陆家嘴

第一财经12-12

①博通Q4业绩亮眼但股价下跌 AI芯片积压订单未能追上高估值在截至11月2日的第四财季，博通公司公布的销售额为180亿美元，同比增长28%，分析师预期为175亿美元。不计部分项目，每股收益增至1.95美元，分析师预期为1.87美元。其中，半导体业务营收为110.7亿美元，同比增长34.5%;基础设施业务营收增长19%，达到69.4亿美元。展望未来，该公司表示，截至2月1日的第一财季销售额约为191...

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Why did the stock price fall? Meta may turn to closed source and introduce Alibaba Qwen model training | 20251212 From Wall Street to Lujiazui","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ALBmain":0.6,"AVGO":1.95,"BABA":0.9,"META":1.91},"content_text":"①博通Q4业绩亮眼但股价下跌 AI芯片积压订单未能追上高估值在截至11月2日的第四财季，博通公司公布的销售额为180亿美元，同比增长28%，分析师预期为175亿美元。不计部分项目，每股收益增至1.95美元，分析师预期为1.87美元。其中，半导体业务营收为110.7亿美元，同比增长34.5%;基础设施业务营收增长19%，达到69.4亿美元。展望未来，该公司表示，截至2月1日的第一财季销售额约为191亿美元，分析师平均预期为185亿美元。第一财季人工智能半导体营收预计同比增长一倍，达到82亿美元。该公司还将季度股息提高了10%，至每股65美分。-评论员徐广语：博通最新财报整体表现强劲，充分体现其在AI基础设施领域的战略位置正在迅速强化。公司营收与利润双双超预期，更关键的是，对下季度给出的指引依旧大幅向上，显示来自大型云厂商的AI芯片与高速网络产品需求旺盛。AI相关收入同比翻倍的预期，凸显博通在定制加速器和数据中心互联上的竞争优势。尽管市场仍关注客户集中度和订单可持续性，但从现金流、毛利率到股息提升，财报反映出公司具备稳健的盈利质量与长期增长潜力。整体来看，这是一份既稳又强的财报，为未来几个季度的增长奠定了良好基调。-海顺投顾黄俊：AI行业正在复刻“云计算早期”路径——先开源教育市场，再闭源收割利润。核心资产由代码与算力升级为“独占数据+用户关系+合规牌照”。随着训练成本指数级攀升，未来能够持续推出顶级基础模型的玩家将高度集中，行业进入“高资本-高毛利-高壁垒”的新稳态。②Meta或转向闭源 引入阿里Qwen模型训练据彭博社援引知情人士，扎克伯格组成了一个名为TBD Lab的团队，并筹备名为“Avocado”的新人工智能项目。该团队在“Avocado”的训练过程中使用了多个第三方模型，包括谷歌的Gemma、OpenAI的GPT-oss和阿里巴巴的Qwen模型。不同于Meta过去坚持的开源路线，该模型或将以闭源形式发布，由公司完全控制并向外部出售访问权限。-评论员徐广语：Meta由开源转向闭源，反映出行业商业模式正发生重要变化：早期开源强调生态和速度，但随着大模型算力成本高企、数据壁垒增厚，企业更关注可控性、差异化和商业变现。闭源能让Meta完整掌握模型能力、访问权限与付费方式，形成更明确的收入模式，并保护技术优势不被快速复制。同时，Meta在训练中引入阿里Qwen、谷歌Gemma、OpenAI GPT-oss等第三方模型，显示全球AI正进入混合训练、互相借力的阶段。对阿里而言，与Meta合作可提升Qwen的国际影响力和验证场景；对Meta，则能吸收更多模型能力，加速商业级产品化。总体来看，这一转变凸显AI行业正从“开源竞争”迈向“闭源变现”。-海顺投顾黄俊：短期看，Meta用Qwen填补了多语言、端侧部署和推理深度的三重短板，最快6个月内就能拿出可商业化的闭源旗舰；阿里则借Meta的“背书”把开源模型变成全球云的获客漏斗，一次性收割品牌、客户与收入。长期看，这场“你中有我”的合作更像一次战略卡位：Meta需要中国技术追赶OpenAI，阿里需要硅谷巨头当“代言人”做大海外生态。③美银自动驾驶深度报告：无人网约车规模可达万亿 每英里成本2美元将是引爆点美银最新研报指出，美国网约车行驶里程仅占乘用车总里程的1%，自动驾驶技术是破局关键。若未来15年渗透率达20%、每英里成本降至1.5-2.0美元，市场规模将达0.9-1.2万亿美元，2美元/英里更是大规模普及的临界点。美银测算显示即便Uber市场份额降至50%，2040年订单量仍有望达5890亿美元，年复合增长率17%。不过，Waymo、特斯拉等巨头入局，将给Uber、Lyft带来先发优势、成本碾压及价格战等竞争风险，而市场扩容效应或可抵消份额下滑的影响。-评论员徐广语：未来自动驾驶将从城市试点走向规模化商业运营，核心趋势是成本下降、AI决策能力提升、行业协作加深。随着传感器、芯片和整车成本持续降低，robotaxi的每英里费用有望逼近私家车水平，成为行业爆发关键点。技术路线将从“视觉vs激光雷达”走向多模态融合，大模型将主导行为预测与实时决策。商业上将出现更多“车厂+科技公司+城市监管”的合作，物流、园区等场景将率先盈利。整体来看，未来十年自动驾驶将进入真正的 规模化与商业可持续阶段。-海顺投顾黄俊：今年无人驾驶赛道，既是“端到端大模型”与“模块化安全”两条技术路线的对决，也是“数据闭环速度”“成本下探节奏”“政策牌照卡位”三维度的综合拉力赛；窗口期短、降价快、标准化加速，决定了未来两年将完成首轮行业洗牌。欢迎大家关注我们的喜马拉雅、小宇宙和荔枝FM账号、搜索：从华尔街到陆家嘴，找到我们，收听节目回放。用高效资讯与专业洞察，帮你避开认知偏差，快人一步，抢占多市场投资风口！《从华尔街到陆家嘴》，每个交易日上午8:30，我们不见不散！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2590935526","isCrawlerRequest":true}

博通Q4财报超预期为何股价反跌？Meta或转向闭源 引入阿里Qwen模型训练丨20251212从华尔街到陆家嘴

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博通Q4财报超预期为何股价反跌？Meta或转向闭源引入阿里Qwen模型训练丨20251212从华尔街到陆家嘴