Optimus机器人量产特斯拉的最后信仰

21世纪经济报道12-09 21:52

2025年人形机器人量产元年进入最后一个月，但其演绎方式却略显“纠结”。12月7日，备受A股特斯拉产业链投资者关注的特斯拉人形机器人团队中国“审厂”消息频传。业内人士称，“审厂”或为配合明年一季度特斯拉Optimus Gen3机器人的发布进行量产准备。这意味着，特斯拉机器人产业链在不断地“送样”，“测试”近两年后，或将迎来落地时刻。近日，特斯拉方面似乎也急不可耐地向世界传递Optimus机器人的...

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\"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Optimus robot mass-produced Tesla's last belief","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.97,"TSYW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"2025年人形机器人量产元年进入最后一个月，但其演绎方式却略显“纠结”。12月7日，备受A股特斯拉产业链投资者关注的特斯拉人形机器人团队中国“审厂”消息频传。业内人士称，“审厂”或为配合明年一季度特斯拉Optimus Gen3机器人的发布进行量产准备。这意味着，特斯拉机器人产业链在不断地“送样”，“测试”近两年后，或将迎来落地时刻。近日，特斯拉方面似乎也急不可耐地向世界传递Optimus机器人的惊人之处。数天前，特斯拉一则过渡型号机器人 Optimus Gen2.5 跑步视频走红网络，卓越运动能力让资本市场的焦点再度转向特斯拉。然而，没过多久事情就出现了反转。网络上，一位博主放出了其与特斯拉机器人的互动视频：特斯拉在向观众递杯之后向后倾倒，并在倾倒过程中作出了一个“摘下VR眼镜”的动作。恰恰是这个动作，被认为是特斯拉机器人在远处被操作员用VR技术遥控操作，而非“端到端”互动的证据。12月8日，特斯拉股价下跌3.39%，市值抹去约500亿美元，以上这则插曲也被戏称为“史上最贵的摔跤”。量产的曙光“特斯拉许多演示视频都是通过遥操来实现了，这在业界并不是秘密，几乎人尽皆知。”一位深圳机器人行业高管告诉记者，相对于需要耗费大量算力和研发强劲多模态人工智能模型的“端到端”具身智能，完全模仿人类动作的VR/AR遥操，其实只需要一个轻量化的团队即可以完成。但是，这并不意味着目前没有强劲“大脑”的人形机器人，就没有量产前景或好的应用场景。21世纪经济报道记者了解到，目前优必选，宇树科技等头部人形机器人企业均在通过VR/AR遥操的方式控制机器人或帮助机器人进行数据训练，以达到提升人形机器人运动控制能力接近人类的目标。此外，部分场景之中，比起使用便要“燃烧经费”的“端到端”具身智能，固定算法的遥操，虽然在泛用性上受到一定的约束，却能更高效地执行固定场景任务，从而获得更为理想的商业化落地。当然，资本市场热爱“强预期”多于“强现实”，导致特斯拉股价依然在重重压力之下弃守阵地，回吐近日部分涨幅。但即便“小视频”透露特斯拉具身智能研发相对落后，市场仍对明年特斯拉机器人正式量产抱有期待。其中“审厂”就是市场关注的重点。近日，部分消息称特斯拉机器人供应链后端检测设备审核完成，生产端形成标准化技术文档蓝皮书，部分部件构型路线，运动算法开始明确收敛。以上信息均指向特斯拉机器人的首个大规模量产之日已经渐行渐近，而前期入围的特斯拉机器人供应链玩家，距离正式获得“T链”番号之日也不再遥远。但一边是“审厂”的利好，一边是“小视频”的流传，市场观点分歧的背后，是特斯拉Optimus Gen3发布会的“定档”，在过去一年中不断地摇摆、落空，这也是产业与资本市场信念感不强的原因。有观点认为，特斯拉季度末审厂，依然是常规拜访与技术探讨，与最终量产配套何时落地关联不强，且未必与人形机器人环节有关。也有观点认为，虽然“审厂”特斯拉机器人的执行部件构型基本确定，但马斯克仍可能因机器人具身智能无法满足泛化要求或遥操过多，而暂时搁置发布。马斯克的最后底线总体来看，特斯拉的引领效益，已经在一定程度上决定了全球人形机器人行业从业者的信心。工信部人形机器人标准化技术委员会委员（公示中）、北京人形机器人创新中心专家委员会委员石照耀此前曾表示，人形机器人概念近年再度兴起，与马斯克和特斯拉的关系密不可分。因此，业界会关注前者的一举一动，其对行业有着风向标的意义。“若第三代Optimus的上市有惊喜，或者其在应用场景方面有更多突破，在国内很快会形成一个发展的高峰，推进速度或比2019年特斯拉电动车进入上海后，对新能源车的发展还来得更快。因此明年一季度可能是一个很关键的时间点。”石照耀表示。他还透露，特斯拉已经向部分供应商下达了部分订单，而非如高盛此前研报所暗示的，相关产业没有量产指引，也没有订单。毫无疑问，明年开始，人形机器人的量产和商业化应用，将会变成特斯拉公司以及马斯克的头等大事今年11月，特斯拉股东投票批准了马斯克的10年期薪酬计划。根据该计划，马斯克未来有望获得近1万亿美元市值的特斯拉股票作为酬劳。同时，薪酬计划也约定了对特斯拉的市值管理要求（从当前1.5万亿美元提升至8.5万亿美元）作为授予条件。在此前提下，特斯拉或许无法仅仅依靠“卖车”获得8.5万亿美元总市值。而备受期待的xAI（Grok大模型）与SpaceX业务又并不在特斯拉体系之内，马斯克的抓手，仅仅剩下特斯拉汽车与自动驾驶所延伸出的Robotaxi业务，储能业务——以及最受瞩目的人形机器人业务。当然，华尔街仍然对习惯跳票的特斯拉半信半疑。摩根士丹利分析师Andrew Percoco近日在一份报告中指出：“虽然大家都明白特斯拉不仅是一家汽车制造商，但我们预计未来一年交易环境将较为波动。”摩根士丹利还指出，由于特斯拉股价已经反映了其非汽车业务的催化剂，因此对公司短期股价持负面观点。这也是过去两年中摩根士丹利首次对特斯拉给出下调评级的操作。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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Optimus机器人量产 特斯拉的最后信仰

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Optimus机器人量产特斯拉的最后信仰