“年底对冲AI泡沫=纯浪费钱”？期权交易员押注，美股科技股牛市至少延续到明年1月

华尔街见闻2025-12-10

期权交易员正通过衍生品市场发出明确信号：科技股的上涨行情远未结束。据彭博报道，科技七巨头股票看涨期权的未平仓合约相对于看跌期权已接近2023年3月以来的最高水平，显示交易员正为股价进一步上涨做准备。这一现象表明，至少在明年1月之前，科技股的上涨动能有望延续。Miller Tabak + Co首席市场策略师Matt Maley表示："在过去一两年里，年底买入科技股对冲工具纯属浪费金钱。"他指出，如果...

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Options traders bet that the bull market in U.S. technology stocks will last until at least January next year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MESmain":0.6,"MSFT":1.83,"ESmain":0.6,"NVDA":1.85,"OEF":0.6,"META":1.83,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEX":0.6},"content_text":"期权交易员正通过衍生品市场发出明确信号：科技股的上涨行情远未结束。据彭博报道，科技七巨头股票看涨期权的未平仓合约相对于看跌期权已接近2023年3月以来的最高水平，显示交易员正为股价进一步上涨做准备。这一现象表明，至少在明年1月之前，科技股的上涨动能有望延续。Miller Tabak + Co首席市场策略师Matt Maley表示：\"在过去一两年里，年底买入科技股对冲工具纯属浪费金钱。\"他指出，如果市场在年末强劲上涨，无论投资者看涨还是看跌，机构交易员都必须买入股票。这一市场信号有助缓解外界对科技股涨势见顶的担忧。自4月初以来，科技股反弹推动标普500指数上涨27%，今年迄今累计涨幅超过16%，但近期越来越多策略师开始对该板块前景持谨慎态度。期权市场释放看涨信号衍生品市场正在发出明确的看涨信号。数据显示，科技七巨头的看涨期权未平仓合约占比接近2023年3月以来的峰值水平，远超看跌期权，反映交易员预期这些股票将继续上涨。AI技术带来的乐观情绪已将科技七巨头指数今年推高25%，其中英伟达成为首家市值突破5万亿美元的公司，包括Meta和微软在内的七大科技公司贡献了今年股市涨幅的大部分。眼下，机构投资者对科技股的信心依然稳固。据彭博采访的39位全球投资经理，多数人认为科技七巨头的估值并未过度膨胀，基本面支撑这一交易，标志着新工业周期的开始。另外，尽管市场对科技龙头股估值是否可持续存在不确定性，但美联储降息预期已缓解部分担忧。芝加哥期权交易所数据显示，科技股相对大盘的预期波动率指标在过去两周大幅下降，从一年高点8%降至4%，降幅达到一半。利率环境的改善为科技股提供了支撑，这有助于降低高估值成长股的融资成本，并提升其未来现金流的现值。值得注意的是，看涨情绪并非仅限于科技股。数据显示，整体市场的乐观情绪也在上升，期权交易活动表明投资者正在为更广泛的市场上涨做准备。Cboe Global Markets衍生品市场情报主管Mandy Xu指出:过去两周投资者对标普500指数看涨期权的需求不断上升，看涨合约的需求增速超过看跌期权。不过，并非所有人都持乐观态度。IUR Capital董事总经理Gareth Ryan预计明年初将出现调整。他表示：\"2026年的头几个月可能会重新测试6500点的低位。\"","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2590840135","isCrawlerRequest":true}