“史上最贵一摔”

21世纪经济报道2025-12-10

2025年人形机器人量产元年进入最后一个月，但其演绎方式却略显“纠结”。　　12月7日，备受A股特斯拉产业链投资者关注的特斯拉人形机器人团队中国“审厂”（审厂，又称验厂或审核，是指下游客户或第三方机构对上游供应商工厂进行的全面检查和评估）消息频传。　　业内人士称，“审厂”或为配合明年一季度特斯拉Optimus Gen3机器人的发布进行量产准备。　　这意味着，特斯拉机器人产业链在不断地“送样”...

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3xLongSG261006"},"translate_title":"\"The most expensive fall in history\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.98,"UFO":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"2025年人形机器人量产元年进入最后一个月，但其演绎方式却略显“纠结”。\n　　12月7日，备受A股特斯拉产业链投资者关注的特斯拉人形机器人团队中国“审厂”（审厂，又称验厂或审核，是指下游客户或第三方机构对上游供应商工厂进行的全面检查和评估）消息频传。\n　　业内人士称，“审厂”或为配合明年一季度特斯拉Optimus Gen3机器人的发布进行量产准备。\n　　这意味着，特斯拉机器人产业链在不断地“送样”“测试”近两年后，或将迎来落地时刻。\n　　近日，特斯拉方面似乎也急不可耐地向世界传递Optimus机器人的惊人之处。数天前，特斯拉一则过渡型号机器人 Optimus Gen2.5 跑步视频走红网络，卓越运动能力让资本市场的焦点再度转向特斯拉。\n　　然而，没过多久事情就出现了反转。\n　　网络上，一位博主放出了其与特斯拉机器人的互动视频：特斯拉在向观众递杯之后向后倾倒，并在倾倒过程中作出了一个“摘下VR眼镜”的动作。\n　　恰恰是这个动作，被认为是特斯拉机器人在远处被操作员用VR技术遥控操作，而非“端到端”互动的证据。\n　　12月8日，特斯拉股价下跌3.39%，市值抹去约500亿美元，以上这则插曲也被戏称为“史上最贵的摔跤”。\n　　量产的曙光\n　　“特斯拉许多演示视频都是通过遥操来实现了，这在业界并不是秘密，几乎人尽皆知。”一位深圳机器人行业高管告诉记者，相对于需要耗费大量算力和研发强劲多模态人工智能模型的“端到端”具身智能，完全模仿人类动作的VR/AR遥操，其实只需要一个轻量化的团队即可以完成。\n　　但是，这并不意味着目前没有强劲“大脑”的人形机器人，就没有量产前景或好的应用场景。\n　　21世纪经济报道记者了解到，目前优必选、宇树科技等头部人形机器人企业均在通过VR/AR遥操的方式控制机器人或帮助机器人进行数据训练，以达到提升人形机器人运动控制能力接近人类的目标。\n　　此外，部分场景之中，比起使用便要“燃烧经费”的“端到端”具身智能，固定算法的遥操，虽然在泛用性上受到一定的约束，却能更高效地执行固定场景任务，从而获得更为理想的商业化落地。\n　　当然，资本市场热爱“强预期”多于“强现实”，导致特斯拉股价依然在重重压力之下弃守阵地，回吐近日部分涨幅。\n　　但即便“小视频”透露特斯拉具身智能研发相对落后，市场仍对明年特斯拉机器人正式量产抱有期待。\n　　其中“审厂”就是市场关注的重点。近日，部分消息称特斯拉机器人供应链后端检测设备审核完成，生产端形成标准化技术文档蓝皮书，部分部件构型路线，运动算法开始明确收敛。\n　　以上信息均指向特斯拉机器人的首个大规模量产之日已经渐行渐近，而前期入围的特斯拉机器人供应链玩家，距离正式获得“T链”番号之日也不再遥远。\n　　但一边是“审厂”的利好，一边是“小视频”的流传，市场观点分歧的背后，是特斯拉Optimus Gen3发布会的“定档”，在过去一年中不断地摇摆、落空，这也是产业与资本市场信念感不强的原因。\n　　有观点认为，特斯拉季度末审厂，依然是常规拜访与技术探讨，与最终量产配套何时落地关联不强，且未必与人形机器人环节有关。\n　　也有观点认为，虽然“审厂”特斯拉机器人的执行部件构型基本确定，但马斯克仍可能因机器人具身智能无法满足泛化要求或遥操过多，而暂时搁置发布。\n　　马斯克的最后底线\n　　总体来看，特斯拉的引领效应，已经在一定程度上决定了全球人形机器人行业从业者的信心。\n　　工信部人形机器人标准化技术委员会委员（公示中）、北京人形机器人创新中心专家委员会委员石照耀此前曾表示，人形机器人概念近年再度兴起，与马斯克和特斯拉的关系密不可分。\n　　因此，业界会关注前者的一举一动，其对行业有着风向标的意义。\n　　“若第三代Optimus的上市有惊喜，或者其在应用场景方面有更多突破，在国内很快会形成一个发展的高峰，推进速度或比2019年特斯拉电动车进入上海后，对新能源车的发展还来得更快。因此明年一季度可能是一个很关键的时间点。”石照耀表示。\n　　他还透露，特斯拉已经向部分供应商下达了部分订单，而非如高盛此前研报所暗示的，相关产业没有量产指引，也没有订单。\n　　毫无疑问，明年开始，人形机器人的量产和商业化应用，将会变成特斯拉公司以及马斯克的头等大事。\n　　今年11月，特斯拉股东投票批准了马斯克的10年期薪酬计划。根据该计划，马斯克未来有望获得近1万亿美元市值的特斯拉股票作为酬劳。同时，薪酬计划也约定了对特斯拉的市值管理要求（从当前1.5万亿美元提升至8.5万亿美元）作为授予条件。\n　　在此前提下，特斯拉或许无法仅仅依靠“卖车”获得8.5万亿美元总市值。而备受期待的xAI（Grok大模型）与SpaceX业务又并不在特斯拉体系之内，马斯克的抓手，仅仅剩下特斯拉汽车与自动驾驶所延伸出的Robotaxi业务、储能业务，以及最受瞩目的人形机器人业务。\n　　当然，华尔街仍然对习惯跳票的特斯拉半信半疑。\n　　摩根士丹利分析师Andrew Percoco近日在一份报告中指出：“虽然大家都明白特斯拉不仅是一家汽车制造商，但我们预计未来一年交易环境将较为波动。”\n　　摩根士丹利还指出，由于特斯拉股价已经反映了其非汽车业务的催化剂，因此对公司短期股价持负面观点。这也是过去两年中摩根士丹利首次对特斯拉给出下调评级的操作。\n　　（作者：赵云帆 编辑：朱益民）\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨赐","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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