【券商聚焦】国投证券国际：2026年互联网板块前景展望

金吾资讯12-11

金吾财讯 | 国投证券国际对2026年互联网板块前景展望如下，在线零售：该机构预计电商大盘维持个位数增长，及时零售/闪购增长在30%以上，电商与及时零售进一步融合。平台见的份额竞争维持激烈。外卖：UE修复是主线，该机构认为2026年外卖的竞争仍主要在美团、淘宝闪购之间。目前各方的投入仍是动态调整，但补贴水平回落至理性区间的趋势确定性较强。该机构认为UE修复至1元水平是行业中期目标。外卖长期效率提升...

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国投证券国际对2026年互联网板块前景展望如下，在线零售：该机构预计电商大盘维持个位数增长，及时零售/闪购增长在30%以上，电商与及时零售进一步融合。平台见的份额竞争维持激烈。外卖：UE修复是主线，该机构认为2026年外卖的竞争仍主要在美团、淘宝闪购之间。目前各方的投入仍是动态调整，但补贴水平回落至理性区间的趋势确定性较强。该机构认为UE修复至1元水平是行业中期目标。外卖长期效率提升的关键是：AOV修复(高客单价占比提升等，补贴回落至理性水平)、订单密度提升等。该机构认为用户对履约确定性的需求不变，商户长效稳定经营需求不变，平台的核心能力在于平衡三端生态。Agent产品：预计2026年Agent产品的迭代将加速，对收入提振及成本节省的幅度将扩大。2025年各互联网平台已初步落地生态内的Agent产品。例如：电商平台App内的各类AI搜索工具等、商户运营助手等；美团小美、携程TripGenie等。增长核心驱动来自：中国开源模型迭代，维持领先优势；互联网平台的产品能力；C端用户对Agent产品的接受度和渗透率提升；B端商户降本增效需求。AI对用户粘性提升及商业化提振作用强化。目前广告/直播/电商是短视频主流商业模式，该机构认为随着AI产品及功能的持续迭代，预计AI能力对用户粘性和商业化效率作用提升。在线旅游：该机构预计2026年国内大盘维持高个位数增长，宏观消费预期是影响旅游消费支出的核心因素，人均旅游花费有望持续修复，节假日出行数据表现仍是观测旅游复苏的核心指标。线上渗透率提升是长期趋势，增长驱动来自机票到酒店的交叉销售提升、90后&00后消费力提升等。该机构推荐，阿里巴巴(BABA)：腾讯(00700)、快手(01024)、腾讯音乐(TME)。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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