酒价跌幅高达40%，贵州茅台的“底”到了吗？

第一财经2025-12-11

新浪财经“酒价内参”重磅上线知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握　　一瓶散装53度飞天茅台的市场批发价悄然逼近贵州茅台（600519.SH）的市场指导价，与两年前的高点相比跌幅高达40%，同期，贵州茅台股价正在考验1400元关口的支撑力度。　　10日酒价数据显示，53度散飞茅台（散装飞天茅台）参考批发价报1500元/瓶，创下年内新低，同比跌幅约20%，较两年前跌约40%。资本市场同样反应冷淡，贵州茅台...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2590598143?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-11 15:23","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2590598143","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"酒价跌幅高达40%，贵州茅台的“底”到了吗？","media":"第一财经","content":"<div>\n<p>新浪财经“酒价内参”重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握\n　　一瓶散装53度飞天茅台的市场批发价悄然逼近贵州茅台（600519.SH）的市场指导价，与两年前的高点相比跌幅高达40%，同期，贵州茅台股价正在考验1400元关口的支撑力度。\n　　10日酒价数据显示，53度散飞茅台（散装飞天茅台）参考批发价报1500元/瓶，创下年内新低，同比跌幅约20%，较两年前跌约40%。资本市场同样反应冷淡，贵州茅台...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/jync/2025-12-11/doc-inhamhsh7958873.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>酒价跌幅高达40%，贵州茅台的“底”到了吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n酒价跌幅高达40%，贵州茅台的“底”到了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-11 15:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/jync/2025-12-11/doc-inhamhsh7958873.shtml><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新浪财经“酒价内参”重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握\n　　一瓶散装53度飞天茅台的市场批发价悄然逼近贵州茅台（600519.SH）的市场指导价，与两年前的高点相比跌幅高达40%，同期，贵州茅台股价正在考验1400元关口的支撑力度。\n　　10日酒价数据显示，53度散飞茅台（散装飞天茅台）参考批发价报1500元/瓶，创下年内新低，同比跌幅约20%，较两年前跌约40%。资本市场同样反应冷淡，贵州茅台...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/jync/2025-12-11/doc-inhamhsh7958873.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1152091754.HKD","symbol_name":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/jync/2025-12-11/doc-inhamhsh7958873.shtml","article_id":"2590598143","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/jync/2025-12-11/doc-inhamhsh7958873.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, .action","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2590598143","pubTimestamp":1765437780,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"　　一瓶散装53度飞天茅台的市场批发价悄然逼近贵州茅台的市场指导价，与两年前的高点相比跌幅高达40%，同期，贵州茅台股价正在考验1400元关口的支撑力度。　　需求下滑、价格下跌之际，为了维护市场长期健康，贵州茅台近年来推行“三端变革”，并不为了短期业绩向渠道强压指标。　　近期，贵州茅台召开了2025年第一次临时股东大会，管理层对当前白酒行业的挑战进行了坦诚回应。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"83189":"易方达白酒-R","600519":"贵州茅台","LU1152091754.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" (HKD) INC","BK0196":"行业龙头","LU0577902454.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","03189":"易方达白酒","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU1997245177.USD":"安联神洲A股基金","LU1497734951.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Low Volatility Equity Fund ASDM SGD-H","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","BK0215":"饮品","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1831875114.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1497733557.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) INC A","LU1226287875.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SEL S-CHINA ALLOCATION OPP \"PM\" (USD) INC","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","LU1634259391.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Low Volatility Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","SG9999001903.USD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity USD","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","BK0012":"证金概念","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","LU1951186391.HKD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SEL CHINA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (US \"P\" (HKD) INC","LU2177674079.SGD":"Fidelity Asia Pacific Opportunities A-ACC-SGD (hedged)","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","LU2495084118.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"ATH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK0028":"国家队","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1807302812.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1226287792.SGD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SEL S-CHINA ALLOCATION OPP \"P\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1734074674.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC FRANCHISE \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0516422952.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (EUR) ACC","LU2399975544.HKD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0405327494.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis"},"translate_title":"The price of wine has dropped by as much as 40%. Has the \"bottom\" of Kweichow Moutai arrived?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"83189":1.5,"600519":1.5,"03189":1.5},"content_text":"新浪财经“酒价内参”重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握\n　　一瓶散装53度飞天茅台的市场批发价悄然逼近贵州茅台（600519.SH）的市场指导价，与两年前的高点相比跌幅高达40%，同期，贵州茅台股价正在考验1400元关口的支撑力度。\n　　10日酒价数据显示，53度散飞茅台（散装飞天茅台）参考批发价报1500元/瓶，创下年内新低，同比跌幅约20%，较两年前跌约40%。资本市场同样反应冷淡，贵州茅台股价持续走低，12月10日，该股盘中跌破1400元整数关口，险些跌破今年2月的年内最低点，午后大盘企稳反弹，贵州茅台股价翻红。截至收盘，贵州茅台报1402.8元，年内累计下跌6.15%，明显跑输沪深300等主要股指。\n　　市场普遍认为“酒价见底股价才见底”，茅台股价是否已触底，成为投资者关注的焦点。贵州茅台股价的持续下跌反映了市场对传统消费类股票的担忧，也折射出白酒行业面临的深度调整。公司正通过“三个转型”和“三端变革”积极应对挑战，但市场需要时间来验证这些策略的效果。\n　　飞天茅台价格跌至“心理防线”\n　　今年以来，飞天茅台价格连续跌破数道关口，今年6月价格跌破2000元关口，到10月底击穿1700元防线，部分电商促销价低至1399元/瓶。这也是自2018年1月8日，贵州茅台将市场指导价从1299元/瓶提升至1499元/瓶以来，单瓶批发价格首次跌至指导价。酒价下跌的同时，贵州茅台股价自3月以来连续跌破1600元、1500元关口，12月以来该股已下跌3.29%。\n　　多名上海地区资深酒类经销商对第一财经记者表示，按照当前走势，今年底散装飞天茅台的价格能维持在1500元左右就相当不错了。一位在沪经营酒类批发业务超过20年的经销商说：“往年这个时候，拿飞天茅台的人络绎不绝，今年却是问价的多、买单的少，大部分消费者都在观望，想等价格再跌一跌。按照目前的市场态势，1500元可能是阶段的底部，但短期内也很难看到反弹。”\n　　需求下滑、价格下跌之际，为了维护市场长期健康，贵州茅台近年来推行“三端变革”，并不为了短期业绩向渠道强压指标。这种不追求短期增速的策略，在一定程度上允许市场价格根据真实需求回归，亦反映当前高端白酒需求滑落的困境。\n　　近期，贵州茅台召开了2025年第一次临时股东大会，管理层对当前白酒行业的挑战进行了坦诚回应。公司承认行业仍处于调整期，短期内难以迅速好转，白酒存量竞争下，马太效应越发明显，并且从销售情况来看，新经济企业客户有所增长，但还没有达到公司预期。\n　　从供需层面看，供给端面临瓶颈，2021年至2024年贵州茅台的基酒产量复合年增长率为-0.1%，按照基酒到成品酒的出酒时间判断，未来五年茅台酒在供给端不会明显增加。需求侧同样承压，传统消费场景受限、消费人群迭代等因素制约白酒消费量增长。公司表示将积极推进“三个转型”“三端变革”，聚焦渠道生态与健康，维护渠道韧性和市场稳定性。\n　　茅台面临的另一个挑战是品牌年轻化与国际化。公司明确表示“不会为了年轻化而年轻化”，品牌美誉度仍是核心，将根据不同年龄段的价值主张，实现卖酒向卖生活方式转变。\n　　贵州茅台未来如何估值定价\n　　作为行业龙头，贵州茅台虽保持业绩增长，但相比此前数年营收净利润两位数增长的情形，其今年的业绩增速已明显放缓，使得市场对其未来业绩增速及增长空间存在疑虑。\n　　2025年前三季度，贵州茅台实现营业收入1309.04亿元，同比微增6.33%；归母净利润646.27亿元，同比增长6.25%。单看第三季度，公司增长几乎陷入停滞，营收仅同比增长0.35%，归母净利润微增0.48%。\n　　更为敏感的是贵州茅台的经营现金流指标出现下滑，前三季度经营活动产生的现金流量净额为381.96亿元，同比下降14.01%。这一变化或许反映出茅台在销售回款方面面临的压力。销售渠道的调整同样引人关注。截至报告期末，公司国内经销商数量为2325个，年内增加205个，减少23个。\n　　资产结构上，贵州茅台依然保持不俗的财务实力。截至9月30日，公司总资产达3047.4亿元，其中货币资金517.5亿元。最令市场关注的是公司居高不下的存货规模，截至三季度末，贵州茅台的存货账面价值558.6亿元，同比去年增长15.83%，环比今年初增长2.8%，同比显著增长的存货价值既体现了茅台的生产储备，而在需求下行周期中，市场会密切关注其存货的周转效率。\n　　接受记者采访的私募基金人士与消费行业分析师认为，飞天茅台价格一跌再跌，这标志着高端白酒行业正经历根本性重塑：“稀缺性溢价”让位于“价值性定价”，“投资属性”加速向“消费属性”回归。\n　　“如今，投资客兴趣减弱，愿意喝白酒的年轻人越来越少，政策风向变化等因素共同促使茅台回归其本质，即一种消费品。从长期来看，飞天茅台价格下跌是行业调整的必然结果，也是市场回归理性的过程。随着消费场景的收缩和消费观念的变化，高端白酒的价格体系需要重建。”一位私募人士对记者说。\n　　贵州茅台股价与酒价双双重挫的背后，是传统行业龙头股集体困境的一个缩影。在当下A股市场，投资者开始用“老登股”和“小登股”来区分不同类型的上市公司。“老登股”通常指像白酒、银行、地产这样的传统行业龙头，它们曾经是市场的宠儿，拥有稳定的盈利模式和可观的股息回报。但随着经济结构调整和产业升级，这些行业的增长空间受到限制，市场估值逐步下移。\n　　从行业角度看，白酒这一“老登”行业，正处于深度调整期，传统消费场景受限、消费习惯改变、年轻消费群体偏好转移，导致行业整体增长放缓。“这般供需局面下，未来需求如何变化，需求又如何影响飞天茅台长期价格中枢，进而对公司业绩产生何种影响，这些在当前都是不确定的。我们认为，市场本身对茅台中长期的估值定价也处于犹疑阶段。”前述私募人士补充说。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：李昂","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2590598143","isCrawlerRequest":true}