比亚迪电池产能突破113 GWh,推出"零缺陷"目标——理想与现实的距离

储能世界09:11

2025年12月3日,有消息称比亚迪已在其电池制造工厂开始实施名为"零缺陷"的内部计划,旨在将生产和管理流程标准化到更高水平。这一质量提升举措标志着这家中国电动汽车巨头在全球市场扩张中的战略转型。然而,从制造业和统计学的基本原理来看,"零缺陷"作为字面意义上的目标是不可能实现的。储能世界资料图片电池产能创历史新高2025年前三季度,比亚迪国内动力电池产量达到113.42 GWh,其中约23.65 ...

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GWh意味着生产数以亿计的电池单体和组件。即使每个环节的合格率达到99.9999%,在如此庞大的生产规模下,仍会产生数千个不合格品。这是数学规律,不是技术能够完全克服的。2. 行业最高标准的现实即使是全球公认的质量管理标杆企业丰田,其六西格玛(Six Sigma)质量管理标准的目标也只是将缺陷率控制在百万分之3.4(即99.99966%的合格率),而非绝对的零缺陷。六西格玛已经是制造业能够达到的接近极限的质量水平,但它依然承认缺陷的存在。3. 制造过程的固有变异性电池制造涉及数十个工序,包括:原材料的化学成分波动环境温度和湿度的微小变化设备磨损导致的精度偏差人为操作的不确定性供应链上游的质量波动每个环节都存在固有的变异性(Inherent Variability),这些变异在统计过程控制(SPC)中是被承认和管理的,但无法完全消除。4. 检测技术的局限性现代质量检测技术虽然先进,但仍无法做到:检测所有潜在的微观缺陷预测所有可能在使用中才显现的问题100%识别所有类型的缺陷无损检测技术本身也有统计误差,存在漏检率和误检率。5. 比亚迪自身的历史证据值得注意的是，即使在启动\"零缺陷计划\"之前，比亚迪也需要对质量问题进行修正。公司曾对2021年至2023年制造的88,981辆秦Plus DM-i轿车进行软件更新，以解决电池组制造中可能存在的不一致性问题。这一事实直接证明:即使是比亚迪这样的行业领导者,在过去的生产中也存在需要修正的质量问题,这从根本上否定了\"零缺陷\"的可能性。\"零缺陷\"的真实含义:持续改进的理念因此,比亚迪的\"零缺陷\"计划应被准确理解为一种追求卓越的质量管理理念和持续改进的目标方向,而不是字面意义上的绝对零缺陷承诺。在质量管理领域,这种做法被称为\"北极星目标\"(North Star Goal)——设定一个理想化的、永远无法完全达到的目标,以此激励组织持续改进。其实质是:将缺陷率降至行业领先的极低水平(如从万分之几降至百万分之几)建立全员参与的质量文化系统化识别和消除质量隐患持续优化工艺和管理流程这种理念在制造业中广泛应用,丰田的\"持续改善\"(Kaizen)哲学、摩托罗拉的六西格玛方法论,都是类似的思路——追求接近完美,但承认完美不可达到。全球市场表现依然强劲尽管\"零缺陷\"在字面意义上不可能实现,但这并不妨碍比亚迪在2025年取得出色的市场表现。截至2025年第三季度,比亚迪纯电动汽车累计销量达到160.59万辆,而特斯拉同期为121.79万辆,比亚迪领先约38.8万辆。在欧洲市场,比亚迪也取得了突破性进展。2025年1月至7月期间,特斯拉在欧盟的销量下降了43.5%,而比亚迪在7月份的销量增长超过200%,前七个月增长超过250%。2025年4月,比亚迪首次在欧洲纯电动汽车销量上超过特斯拉。电池供应业务快速扩张比亚迪通过其弗迪电池子公司,已成为多家主要汽车制造商的电池供应商。使用弗迪电池生产的磷酸铁锂电池的制造商包括特斯拉、丰田、起亚、福特、铃木、奇瑞、小米、小鹏、蔚来、一汽、江淮、东风日产等。特别值得注意的是与特斯拉的潜在合作。据2024年6月的行业报道，弗迪电池与特斯拉达成了供应协议，计划为特斯拉上海储能工厂（Megafactory）供应电池。报道称，弗迪电池将供应该工厂所需电池的20%左右。特斯拉上海储能工厂设计年产能为40 GWh，如果该合作按计划实施，弗迪电池的年供应量可能超过8 GWh。然而，需要指出的是，这一合作关系尚未得到比亚迪或特斯拉的官方确认，实际供货情况和合同细节也未公开披露。质量提升计划的实际价值虽然\"零缺陷\"无法实现,但该计划对比亚迪仍具有重要的实际价值:1. 质量文化的塑造通过设定极高的质量标准,可以在全公司范围内强化质量意识,使每个员工都将质量视为首要责任。2. 缺陷率的大幅降低即使无法达到零缺陷,但可以将缺陷率从目前的水平(假设为万分之几)降至百万分之几的水平。这种数量级的改进在市场竞争中具有显著意义。3. 系统能力的提升通过对标丰田等企业的管理实践,可以系统性提升比亚迪在过程控制、供应链管理、员工培训等方面的能力。4. 客户信任的增强通过减少产品召回和质量投诉,可以在快速扩张的国际市场中建立更强的品牌信誉。5. 成本的长期优化更低的缺陷率意味着更少的返工、报废和质保成本,从长期来看可以显著改善盈利能力。技术创新持续推进除了质量提升,比亚迪在电池技术创新方面也保持领先。据中国媒体报道,比亚迪电池业务首席技术官孙华军在固态电池论坛活动上表示,公司已在2024年在其试生产线上生产了首批20 Ah和60 Ah的固态电池。比亚迪预计将在2027年左右开始固态电池的\"大规模示范\"应用,尽管大规模生产仍需要一些时间。理性看待质量承诺市场研究公司Counterpoint Research预测,比亚迪将以15.7%的市场份额成为2025年全球电动汽车销售领导者,巩固这家中国制造商在快速发展的电动汽车行业的领先地位。对于消费者和投资者而言,重要的是理性看待\"零缺陷\"这类营销话语。真正应该关注的是:比亚迪的实际缺陷率数据(如PPM值)产品召回率的变化趋势客户满意度和质量投诉数据与竞争对手的质量对比这些具体、可衡量的指标,比\"零缺陷\"的口号更能反映企业的真实质量水平。结论:持续改进才是关键比亚迪的\"零缺陷\"计划,从科学角度看是不可能实现的目标,但作为一种质量管理理念和企业文化建设工具,仍具有积极意义。关键在于,企业和公众都应清楚认识到:\"零缺陷\"是方向性目标,不是可实现的终点质量改进是一个永无止境的持续过程透明度和诚信比口号更重要实际的质量指标改善才是检验成效的标准随着电动汽车和储能市场的持续增长,比亚迪通过产能扩张、质量提升和技术创新的多维度战略,正在重塑全球电池供应链格局。但要真正赢得全球市场的长期信任,需要的不是\"零缺陷\"的承诺,而是可验证的、持续的质量改进和透明的质量数据披露。免责声明免责声明：我们登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述，其原创性以及文中陈述文字和内容未经证实，对本文以及其中全部或者部分内容、文字的真实性、完整性、及时性本站不作任何保证或承诺，文章内容仅供参考！如果您不希望我们转载您的作品，请和我们联系处理，谢谢！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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