兴业证券：26Q2预计家电外销景气优于内销推荐石头科技等

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智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，展望2026年，考虑国补退坡及高基数，预计家电内销有所承压，趋势上前低后高;26Q2起外销进入较低基数区间，叠加关税影响逐步缓和、美联储降息预期催化、欧美需求修复与新兴市场高增兑现，预计外销景气优于内销。投资主线聚焦出海势能充足、估值具备支撑、且股息有保障的家电出口链龙头标的。推荐白电龙头美的集团(000333.SZ)、海尔智家(600690.SH);黑电...

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Recommend Roborock Technology and others","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00300":0.9,"01070":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，展望2026年，考虑国补退坡及高基数，预计家电内销有所承压，趋势上前低后高;26Q2起外销进入较低基数区间，叠加关税影响逐步缓和、美联储降息预期催化、欧美需求修复与新兴市场高增兑现，预计外销景气优于内销。投资主线聚焦出海势能充足、估值具备支撑、且股息有保障的家电出口链龙头标的。推荐白电龙头美的集团(000333.SZ)、海尔智家(600690.SH);黑电龙头海信视像(600060.SH)、TCL电子(01070);扫地机龙头石头科技(688189.SH)。兴业证券主要观点如下：家电复盘：内部表现分化，整体经营韧性基本面方面：1)成本：2025年以来原材料价格波动上行，海运费持续回落，成本影响整体可控。2)地产：受益政策持续优化，后周期厨电板块估值及基本面弱复苏。3)内需：国补延续提振内需景气，家电社零显著跑赢大盘。因基数走高及政策节奏影响，2025年家电内销增速前高后低。4)出口：关税短期扰动经营节奏，叠加高基数影响，2025Q2以来家电出口增速阶段性回落。龙头依托全球化布局优势及新兴市场贡献增量，外销表现韧性。红利资产属性：中等分红+估值偏低，家电板块股息率优势突出。家电行业股息率均值为3.2%，在申万31个一级行业排名第4。基本面韧性+红利属性，2025年家电板块绝对收益维稳但相对收益表现偏弱。展望2026年，基数压力下预计26H1内销承压，外销景气较优，优选兼具出海与红利属性的家电龙头。白电：龙头竞争壁垒稳固，加速出海获取增量内销层面，2025年国补催化内需景气，受政策力度及基数影响，25H2增速环比回落;展望后续，高基数压力主要集中在26H1，预计2026年增速前低后高、全年维持相对平稳状态;若2026年国补政策延续，有望进一步推动内需改善及格局优化。外销层面，2025年关税扰动下经营节奏有所波动，新兴市场红利为外销增长注入动能;展望后续，26Q2起进入较低基数区间，叠加关税影响缓和以及新兴市场加速渗透贡献增量，预计2026年外销景气优于内销，格局上龙头竞争优势充分，份额提升及盈利改善有望持续兑现。黑电：内销延续升级，海外赛事催化加速出货国内彩电市场维持结构优化趋势，国内龙头引领RGBMini LED产品普及有望贡献新的利润增量。海外新兴市场持续增长，世界杯赛事有望提振海外彩电需求，中系厂商加强赛事营销力度，提升本地渠道结构，加速提升海外出货份额及结构。成本端，液晶面板价格波动减弱，对下游电视整机影响亦有降低。中系品牌内外市场发力，有望持续抢占市场并提升结构。小家电：内需期待政策，外销维持平稳内销层面，2025年初国补政策对于小家电内销具有一定提振作用，但随着国补退坡，行业需求转弱。展望2026年，该行认为国补政策及宏观经济仍是左右小家电内需的关键。外销层面，地缘冲突下小家电出口风险加大，考虑到美国小家电产业对中国供应链依赖度较高，中国企业转嫁关税能力较强，且中小代工企业海外产能布局能力较弱，份额有望继续向头部代工厂集中。扫地机：需求潜力仍充足，国补政策成关键内销层面，若2026年国补政策能够延续，不仅有助于加速国内扫地机渗透率进一步提升，也有助于修复品牌自补冲击下的内销盈利水平。格局上，2026年各品牌或将延续差异化的投放策略，预计市场份额仍会向头部两家品牌集中，行业格局边际改善。外销层面，该行预计2026年扫地机海外市场仍将延续过去几年稳增态势。格局上，中国品牌全球扩张趋势不变，但内部竞争有所加剧，iRobot全面拥抱中国供应链后仍需观察后续表现。风险提示：原材料价格大幅上涨;终端需求不及预期;行业竞争加剧;国内外经济政策不确定性","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2590532527","isCrawlerRequest":true}

兴业证券：26Q2预计家电外销景气优于内销 推荐石头科技等

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兴业证券：26Q2预计家电外销景气优于内销推荐石头科技等