今夜甲骨文史诗级暴跌！

中国基金报2025-12-12

【导读】冰火两重天，道指大涨创新高，纳指大跌，甲骨文史诗级暴跌　　大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。　　12月11日晚间，美股开盘之后，三大指数涨势分化，受益于美联储降息25个基点的利好影响，道琼斯指数上涨约400点，创下历史新高。　　美国总统特朗普发文称，“股市刚刚创下历史新高！！！假民调什么时候才能显示我在经济方面表现出色，以及其他方面的成就？” 　　但科技股为主的纳斯达克指数则跌超1%，...

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　　但科技股为主的纳斯达克指数则跌超1%，原因就是甲骨文业绩暴雷了，重新引发了市场对AI泡沫的担忧。　　作为AI投资热潮风向标的甲骨文股价一度暴跌16%，盘初市值蒸发1020亿美元，此前其云业务收入不及预期，公司还将2026年的资本支出指引大幅上调150亿美元至500亿美元。　　该公司公布的财季收入为161亿美元，同比增长14%，整体云收入增长34%。调整后营业利润为67亿美元，增长10%。反映甲骨文公司来自AI公司业务的云基础设施收入为41亿美元，略低于分析师的预期。　　财报显示，甲骨文本季度资本支出达到120亿美元，比市场预期高出44%。整体收入、经营利润以及与AI相关的云基础设施收入均低于预期。　　分析师指出：“甲骨文未能实现其不久前立下的目标，这让市场质疑其兑现未来承诺的能力。”　　甲骨文的财报重新点燃了市场对科技股估值的担忧，尤其是巨额AI基础设施投入是否能带来回报，使得11月以来的那段剧烈波动再次浮现。　　受此影响，AI科技股纷纷大幅下跌。 　　策略师Susana Cruz表示：“市场对AI相关支出变得更加警惕，与2025年年中那种‘只要提到提高资本开支就兴奋’的情绪形成鲜明对比。甲骨文一直是这一轮中最薄弱的环节，很大原因在于它靠举债来支撑大量投资。”　　投资者将从盘后发布的博通财报中进一步判断AI投资热度。自4月低点以来，博通股价已翻倍。　　甲骨文发布财报之际，标普500指数刚刚在周三接近历史新高，受益于美联储降息以及主席鲍威尔对经济的乐观态度。　　尽管本次25个基点的降息出现了三位官员的反对，但投资者普遍认为美联储在明年仍有进一步宽松的空间。市场依旧押注2026年将降息两次，尽管最新点阵图仅显示一次。　　投资组合经理Alberto Tocchio表示：“甲骨文的影响甚至超过了美联储决议本身。这已经说明一切，因为我们一直看到市场高度集中于一个主题——AI。这不代表AI故事结束或出现泡沫，但市场确实需要更广阔的视角。”　　其他资产方面，现货白银站上63美元/盎司，再创新高，日内涨超2%。 　　欧洲股市集体大涨。 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今夜甲骨文史诗级暴跌！