氧化铝待确认底部，电解铝有望延续强势

广州期货2025-12-09

有色—年度视野一、宏观面分析全球经济增长动能减弱，IMF预计2025年经济增速放缓至3.2%。美国在高利率环境下政策不确定性加剧，经济数据波动风险上升；中国通过"宽货币+宽财政"政策组合推动经济平稳运行，预计全年GDP增速达5%左右。国内外宏观环境多空交织，对铝价影响趋于中性，但需关注欧美降息周期对后续经济活动的潜在提振作用。二、基本面分析从供应端来看，上游铝土矿供应趋于宽松，进口矿到岸价预计...

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