LME铜库存注销，推动铜价走高 | 投研报告

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华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28日+51.95美元/盎司，涨幅为1.24%。周内伦敦白银价格为58.11美元/盎司，环比11月28日+4.20美元/盎司，涨幅为7.78%。以下为研究报告摘要：贵金属：PCE符合预期，12月降息概率较大价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28日+51.95美元/盎司，...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202512091400249532d99b&s=b><strong>中国能源网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28日+51.95美元/盎司，涨幅为1.24%。周内伦敦白银价格为58.11美元/盎司，环比11月28日+4.20美元/盎司，涨幅为7.78%。以下为研究报告摘要：贵金属：PCE符合预期，12月降息概率较大价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28日+51.95美元/盎司，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202512091400249532d99b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1224709979.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A\" (USD) 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局面雏形初现。需求端受铜价快速上涨压制，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。供应干扰叠加降息催化，锡价大幅走强。供需两弱，价格持稳。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1224709979.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096374516.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIA EQUITY INCOME \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0329678337.USD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (USD)","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","02099":"中国黄金国际","LU0061477393.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIA EQUITY INCOME \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0266512127.USD":"摩根大通环球自然资源 A(acc)","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1831875114.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0634319403.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG 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report","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02099":0.9,"01378":0.9,"01208":0.9,"03993":0.9,"02899":0.9,"01787":0.9,"06693":0.9},"content_text":"华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28日+51.95美元/盎司，涨幅为1.24%。周内伦敦白银价格为58.11美元/盎司，环比11月28日+4.20美元/盎司，涨幅为7.78%。以下为研究报告摘要：贵金属：PCE符合预期，12月降息概率较大价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28日+51.95美元/盎司，涨幅为1.24%。周内伦敦白银价格为58.11美元/盎司，环比11月28日+4.20美元/盎司，涨幅为7.78%。数据方面，美国11月标普全球制造业PMI终值52.2，前值51.9，预期51.9。美国11月ISM制造业指数48.2，前值48.7，预期49。美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，前值2.9%，预期2.8%。美国9月PCE物价指数同比2.8%，前值2.7%，预期2.8%。美国9月实际个人消费支出（PCE）环比0%，前值0.2%，预期0.1%。本周公布的重磅数据为美联储比较关心的9月PCE物价指数整体符合预期，且核心PCE指数同比数据环比下滑，提升了市场对于美联储在12月进一步降息的押注。 从CME Fedwatch工具来看，12月美联储进一步降息25BP的概率已经提升到了86.2%。总结而言，近期少数公布的数据推升12月美联储进一步降息的概率，贵金属价格支撑仍在。铜、铝：LME铜库存注销，推动铜价走高国内宏观：中国11月官方综合PMI49.7，前值50。中国11月官方制造业PMI49.2，前值49。铜：价格方面，本周LME铜收盘价11616美元/吨，环比11月28日+631美元/吨，涨幅为+5.74%。SHFE铜收盘价92720元/吨，环比11月28日+5250元/吨，涨幅为+6.00%。库存方面，LME库存为162550吨 (环比11月28日+3125吨，同比-107975吨) ; COMEX库存为436853吨 (环比11月28日+18126吨，同比+344482吨) ; SHFE库存为88905吨 (环比11月28日-9025吨) 。2025年12月4日，SMM统计国内电解铜社会库存15.89万吨，环比11月27日-1.46万吨，同比+2.14万吨。冶炼方面，中国铜精矿TC现货本周价格为-43.03美元/干吨，环比-0.33美元/干吨。下游方面，国内本周精铜制杆开工率为66.41%，环比-2.78 pct。再生铜制杆开工率9.15%，环比-9.14pct。电线电缆开工率为67.12%，环比+0.22pct。总结而言，虽然需求偏弱，但是紧缺的库存仍推动价格上行。多家矿企下调中期产量预期。LME 周中仓库出现大量注销仓单请求，高铜价高BACK 局面雏形初现。需求端受铜价快速上涨压制，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。铝：价格方面，国内电解铝价格为22150元/吨，环比11月28日+720 吨。库存方面，本周 LME 铝库存为 528300 吨（环比 11月 28 日-10750 吨，同比-158825 吨）；国内上期所库存为123630 吨（环比 11 月 28 日+8353 吨，同比-100746 吨）。2025 年 12 月 4 日，SMM 统计国内电解铝锭社会库存 59.6 万吨，环比11月27日+0万吨，同比+5.0万吨。利润方面，云南地区电解铝即时冶炼利润为 4897 元/吨，环比11 月 28 日+473 元/吨。新疆地区电解铝即时冶炼利润为 5524元/吨，环比11月28日+491元/吨。 下游方面，国内本周铝型材龙头企业开工率为 52.0%，环比0.5pct；国内本周铝线缆龙头企业开工率为 62.4%，环比0.6pct。综合而言，国内电解铝个别新建电解铝项目开始通电起槽，运行产能小幅上升。年春节放假时间较晚，12 月电解铝需求转弱幅度有限。国内淡季累库不明显，在美联储降息预期提升背景下，铝价有望走强。锡：供应干扰叠加降息催化，锡价大幅走强价格方面，国内精炼锡价格为314410 元/吨，环比 11 月 28 日+14120 元/吨，涨幅为 4.70%。库存方面，本周国内上期所库存为6865 吨，环比11 月28日+506 吨；LME 库存为3085 吨，环比11月28日-75吨。供应干扰叠加降息催化，锡价大幅走强。受美联储降息预期升温以及非洲刚果(金)地缘冲突引发供应中断担忧的再度发酵，锡价连续大幅反弹。现货方面，市场交投氛围十分低迷，随着锡价频刷阶段新高，下游企业对高价货源的接受度极为有限。锑：供需两弱，价格持稳根据百川盈孚数据，价格方面，本周国内锑锭价格为 17.10 万元/吨，环比11月28日持平。供需两弱，价格持稳。供应端方面，由于前期价格持续下行，冶炼厂原料储备普遍不足。需求端表现以刚需为主，下游多备货一月左右用量，部分用户对价格持观望态度，等待回调时机入市，整体需求较为稳定。行业评级及投资策略黄金：美联储处于降息周期。维持黄金行业“推荐”投资评级。铜：铜矿持续偏紧，维持铜行业“推荐”投资评级。铝：电解铝供应刚性，维持铝行业“推荐”投资评级。锡：供应偏紧或支撑锡价。维持锡行业“推荐”投资评级。锑：锑价下跌半年后反弹。维持锑行业“推荐”投资评级。重点推荐个股黄金行业推荐中金黄金，山东黄金，赤峰黄金，山金国际，中国黄金国际。铜行业推荐紫金矿业，洛阳钼业，金诚信，西部矿业，藏格矿业，五矿资源。铝行业推荐神火股份，云铝股份，天山铝业，中国宏桥。锑行业推荐湖南黄金，华锡有色。锡行业推荐锡业股份，华锡有色，兴业银锡。风险提示1）美国通胀再度大幅走高；2）美联储降息幅度不及预期；3）国内铜需求恢复不及预期；4）电解铝产能意外停产影响上市公司产能；5）铝需求不及预期；6）海外锑矿投产超预期，锑需求不及预期等；7）锡需求不及预期；8）锡矿投产进度超预期等；9）推荐公司业绩不及预期等。（华鑫证券 傅鸿浩 杜飞）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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