上半年最后2次！市场降低“明年美联储降息预期”，2026将成全球央行“政策拐点”？

华尔街见闻2025-12-10

市场正削减对美联储明年大幅降息的押注，而欧央行、加拿大央行等主要央行却面临加息预期，这一政策分化趋势可能重塑2026年全球货币政策格局。据彭博周三报道，除了本周三的25个基点降息外，交易员目前预计美联储在2026年仅降息50个基点，且主要集中在明年上半年，随后可能暂停降息。这较一周前市场预期的三次降息出现大幅收窄。野村证券Charlie McElligott指出，哈塞特被视为特朗普促增长“高温...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

IMBA
2025-12-10
IMBA
开头还2024呢

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2590371649?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-10 12:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2590371649","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"上半年最后2次！市场降低“明年美联储降息预期”，2026将成全球央行“政策拐点”？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>市场正削减对美联储明年大幅降息的押注，而欧央行、加拿大央行等主要央行却面临加息预期，这一政策分化趋势可能重塑2026年全球货币政策格局。\n据彭博周三报道，除了本周三的25个基点降息外，交易员目前预计美联储在2026年仅降息50个基点，且主要集中在明年上半年，随后可能暂停降息。这较一周前市场预期的三次降息出现大幅收窄。\n野村证券Charlie McElligott指出，哈塞特被视为特朗普促增长“高温...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761058\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>上半年最后2次！市场降低“明年美联储降息预期”，2026将成全球央行“政策拐点”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n上半年最后2次！市场降低“明年美联储降息预期”，2026将成全球央行“政策拐点”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-10 12:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761058><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场正削减对美联储明年大幅降息的押注，而欧央行、加拿大央行等主要央行却面临加息预期，这一政策分化趋势可能重塑2026年全球货币政策格局。\n据彭博周三报道，除了本周三的25个基点降息外，交易员目前预计美联储在2026年仅降息50个基点，且主要集中在明年上半年，随后可能暂停降息。这较一周前市场预期的三次降息出现大幅收窄。\n野村证券Charlie McElligott指出，哈塞特被视为特朗普促增长“高温...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761058\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4534","symbol_name":"瑞士信贷持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761058","article_id":"2590371649","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761058","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2590371649","pubTimestamp":1765339245,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"交易员目前预计美联储在2026年仅降息50个基点，且主要集中在明年上半年，随后可能暂停降息。野村表示，哈塞特被视为特朗普促增长“高温运行”政策的支持者，配合即将出台的财政刺激和企业盈利增长超预期，这些利好因素可能加剧通胀粘性风险，从而削弱美联储深度降息的路径。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TMV":"3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion"},"translate_title":"The last 2 times in the first half of the year! The market lowered its \"expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year\", and 2026 will become the \"policy inflection point\" of global central banks?","themeId":"8b73af066fd9b5d81973d5442d6651dd","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d462b3e5cc08fc2239e9aef1a7d7b9df","symbols_score_info":{"TMF":0.6,"TMV":1.88,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"SH":0.6,"TLTW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1.86},"content_text":"市场正削减对美联储明年大幅降息的押注，而欧央行、加拿大央行等主要央行却面临加息预期，这一政策分化趋势可能重塑2026年全球货币政策格局。\n据彭博周三报道，除了本周三的25个基点降息外，交易员目前预计美联储在2026年仅降息50个基点，且主要集中在明年上半年，随后可能暂停降息。这较一周前市场预期的三次降息出现大幅收窄。\n野村证券Charlie McElligott指出，哈塞特被视为特朗普促增长“高温运行”政策的支持者，配合即将出台的财政刺激和企业盈利增长超预期，这些利好因素可能加剧通胀粘性风险，从而削弱美联储深度降息的路径。\n与此同时，互换市场定价显示，欧央行2026年加息可能性已超过降息预期，澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大和欧元区均出现类似的政策预期转向。今年美元已下跌超8%，政策分化可能进一步加剧美元跌势。\n交易员调整美联储降息预期\n利率期货和期权交易显示，市场对美联储2026年降息路径的预期发生急剧转变。与担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩的期货合约显示，2025年12月和2026年12月合约之间的利差达到6月以来最小负值，反映交易员预期的降息幅度显著收窄。\nSOFR期权流向近期严重偏向鸽派对冲，但目标主要集中在明年上半年，这表明交易员正在对冲美联储在明年年中结束降息周期后暂停的情形。\n摩根大通12月8日当周调查显示，国债投资者继续平仓多头头寸，转向中性立场。基准10年期美债收益率目前处于9月以来最高水平，看涨势头已经消退。\n纽约人寿投资首席市场策略师Lauren Goodwin表示，在通胀压力持续的背景下，大幅降息可能质疑美联储抗通胀的可信度。她认为2026年美联储加息\"绝对是一个风险\"，尽管这不是其基准情形。\n通胀风险将重塑美联储政策路径\n野村证券分析师Charlie McElligott在最新报告中指出，市场预期哈塞特将支持特朗普的促增长“高温运行”政策，同时倡导弱势美元。配合即将出台的财政刺激措施和企业盈利及营收增长的普遍上行意外，这些综合利好因素和宽松金融环境可能加剧\"粘性更高\"的通胀风险。\nMcElligott特别提及，当通胀超过3.5%时，黄金而非债券将成为股票的对冲工具，这种环境将削弱此前\"更深度\"的美联储降息路径预期。\n市场将密切关注美联储本周三会议对明年政策路径的指引，以及12月16日公布的11月就业市场数据和1月9日的12月就业报告。这些数据将在美联储1月28日下次政策会议前提供关键参考。\n全球央行政策出现罕见分化\n与美联储预期降息形成鲜明对比的是，多个主要经济体央行面临加息预期。互换市场定价显示，欧洲央行在2026年加息的可能性现已超过降息，而美联储明年预计还将至少再降息两次。\n投资者同时押注澳大利亚和加拿大将在明年加息，而英国央行预计将在明年夏季触底。这一政策分化的部分原因是特朗普贸易战对美国贸易伙伴的冲击轻于预期。\n这种政策背离可能加剧美元跌势。今年以来，美元兑一篮子货币已下跌超8%。通常利率较低的欧元区和其他主要经济体，如今却面临政策转向，可能进一步收窄与美国的利差。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":509308694102656,"gmtCreate":1765380967234,"gmtModify":1765380969915,"author":{"id":"3502572350089252","authorId":"3502572350089252","name":"IMBA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fada4614d2de4900a8a155853a1f7707","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3502572350089252","authorIdStr":"3502572350089252"},"htmlText":"开头还2024呢","listText":"开头还2024呢","text":"开头还2024呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/509308694102656","repostId":2590371649,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2590371649","isCrawlerRequest":true}