财报前夕“放卫星”，摩根大通：博通明年AI收入将超500亿美元！

华尔街见闻12-09

在博通即将发布财报之际，摩根大通发布了一份极具乐观预期的研报，重申了对该公司的“增持”评级。据追风交易台消息，据摩根大通分析师Harlan Sur团队7日发布的报告，博通2026财年的AI收入预计将突破500亿美元大关。这一惊人的增长预测主要基于谷歌TPU项目的持续放量、Meta等客户的新订单，以及下一代网络芯片的推出。对于即将发布的10月季度（F4Q25）财报，摩根大通预计博通的营收和每股...

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Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H"},"translate_title":"\"Satellite release\" on the eve of the financial report, JPMorgan Chase: Broadcom's AI revenue will exceed US $50 billion next year!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGO":1.97},"content_text":"在博通即将发布财报之际，摩根大通发布了一份极具乐观预期的研报，重申了对该公司的“增持”评级。\n据追风交易台消息，据摩根大通分析师Harlan Sur团队7日发布的报告，博通2026财年的AI收入预计将突破500亿美元大关。这一惊人的增长预测主要基于谷歌TPU项目的持续放量、Meta等客户的新订单，以及下一代网络芯片的推出。\n对于即将发布的10月季度（F4Q25）财报，摩根大通预计博通的营收和每股收益将双双超出市场共识。该行指出，谷歌TPU v6（Ironwood）芯片的持续量产以及对Tomahawk 5交换芯片的强劲需求，将推动博通当季AI收入达到66亿美元以上，高于市场预期的62亿美元。\n此外，摩根大通预计博通将给出一份强劲的1月季度指引，营收指引或超过190亿美元，显著高于市场普遍预期的185亿美元。分析师认为，随着AI基础设施支出的持续增长，博通在定制芯片和以太网交换机领域的领导地位将继续转化为超预期的财务表现。\n明年AI收入剑指500亿美元\n摩根大通在报告中不仅看好短期业绩，更对博通的中长期AI收入路径给出了激进的预测。报告指出，博通有望在2025财年实现约200亿至210亿美元以上的AI收入，同比增长约60%。展望2026财年，随着新产品和新项目的爬坡，这一数字预计将超过500亿美元。\n增长的主要动力来自多个方面：首先是谷歌TPU项目的持续迭代，目前的TPU v6 3nm（Ironwood）芯片正在量产，预计下一代TPU v7 3nm将于2026年年中开始爬坡。\n其次，Meta的MTIA推理芯片项目预计在2026年上半年放量。此外，报告还透露了潜在的新客户进展，指出Softbank/ARM的XPU刚刚完成流片，而OpenAI的XPU ASIC也已收到首批芯片，这些都为未来的收入爆发奠定了基础。\n财报与指引有望双双“超预期”\n针对本周五即将发布的财报，摩根大通表现出强烈的信心。报告预计，博通10月季度的总营收将超过175亿美元，主要得益于AI网络和定制ASIC的强劲订单。尽管电信、服务器存储和宽带等非AI半导体业务仅呈现逐渐改善的趋势，但AI业务的强势足以抵消其他板块的平淡。\n对于接下来的1月季度，摩根大通预计AI收入将达到80亿美元，远超市场共识的68亿美元。这一预测基于谷歌TPU项目和Meta MTIA项目的持续爬坡，以及Tomahawk 5和Jericho 3 AI网络产品的强劲需求。同时，下一代Tomahawk 6芯片的推出也被视为重要的增长催化剂。\n非AI业务回暖与VMware协同效应\n在AI业务之外，摩根大通指出博通的传统半导体业务（宽带、存储、企业网络）正随着周期性趋势的好转而逐渐改善。在软件基础设施方面，VMware业务继续保持强劲势头。报告强调，随着大型企业客户不仅续签软件合同，还升级至平均售价更高的VCF全栈解决方案，VMware的收入协同效应正在加速释放。\n分析师认为，强劲的AI基本面与软件业务中激进的协同效应和价值创造相结合，构成了博通独特的投资逻辑。作为全球第二大AI半导体供应商、第一大定制AI ASIC供应商以及第一大云/AI网络交换芯片供应商，博通不仅受益于AI基础设施支出的激增，还拥有多元化的终端市场敞口。\n除了营收增长，摩根大通还强调了博通一流的利润率和现金流表现。报告预计，博通将实现强劲的双位数自由现金流（FCF）增长，这将为未来几年的股息增长提供有力支撑。\n对此，摩根大通预计博通将在财报电话会议上宣布双位数的股息上调。同时，强劲的现金流也将支持公司继续去杠杆化，降低利息支出负担，进一步提升盈利能力。基于上述分析，摩根大通重申了对博通的“增持”评级。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2590334922","isCrawlerRequest":true}