无视泡沫警告！期权交易员用“真金白银”发声：AI狂欢还没完！

金十数据12-10

期权交易员们已经就人工智能类股的涨势是否即将终结表态，他们的结论很明确：不，近期不会结束。这在衍生品市场表现得尤为明显，“七巨头”科技股的看涨期权未平仓合约相对于看跌期权的比例，已接近自2023年3月以来的最高水平，这表明交易员正在为价格上涨做准备。这些数据或许有助于缓解人们对科技股涨势已成强弩之末的担忧，该涨势已推动标普500指数自4月初以来上涨了27%。与此同时，越来越多的策略师正在调降对该...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251210203048a72fc9b6&s=b><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>期权交易员们已经就人工智能类股的涨势是否即将终结表态，他们的结论很明确：不，近期不会结束。这在衍生品市场表现得尤为明显，“七巨头”科技股的看涨期权未平仓合约相对于看跌期权的比例，已接近自2023年3月以来的最高水平，这表明交易员正在为价格上涨做准备。这些数据或许有助于缓解人们对科技股涨势已成强弩之末的担忧，该涨势已推动标普500指数自4月初以来上涨了27%。与此同时，越来越多的策略师正在调降对该...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251210203048a72fc9b6&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4576","symbol_name":"AR","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251210203048a72fc9b6&s=b","article_id":"2590032584","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251210203048a72fc9b6&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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Options traders use \"real money\" to speak out: The AI carnival is not over yet!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"UPRO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NVDA":1.91,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"MSFT":1.87,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6},"content_text":"期权交易员们已经就人工智能类股的涨势是否即将终结表态，他们的结论很明确：不，近期不会结束。这在衍生品市场表现得尤为明显，“七巨头”科技股的看涨期权未平仓合约相对于看跌期权的比例，已接近自2023年3月以来的最高水平，这表明交易员正在为价格上涨做准备。这些数据或许有助于缓解人们对科技股涨势已成强弩之末的担忧，该涨势已推动标普500指数自4月初以来上涨了27%。与此同时，越来越多的策略师正在调降对该板块的预期。尽管对AI估值和支出计划的恐慌挥之不去，但期权交易员预计上涨动能将持续，至少会持续到明年1月。“过去一两年里，在年底买入科技股对冲实际上是在浪费钱，”Miller Tabak + Co.的首席市场策略师Matt Maley表示。“如果市场在年底前强劲反弹，无论人们是看涨还是看跌都不重要，他们（机构交易员）都必须买入股票。”对人工智能技术的乐观情绪推动七巨头指数今年上涨了25%，英伟达也成为首家市值达到5万亿美元的公司，包括Meta和微软在内的七大科技公司贡献了今年股市涨幅的大部分。尽管对科技热门股估值的不可持续性存在不确定性，但美联储将在周四降息的预期缓解了一些担忧。芝加哥期权交易所全球市场公司（Cboe Global Markets Inc.）编制的数据显示，过去两周，衡量科技股相对于大盘预期波动率的指标已减半，从8%的一年高点降至4%。在买方方面，投资者也表达了同样的观点。彭博新闻社采访的39位全球投资经理中，大多数人表示，“七巨头”股票的估值并未过度膨胀。他们表示，基本面支撑了这一交易，这标志着新工业周期的开始。彭博七巨头指数周二上涨0.3%，这是其在12天内的第10个上涨交易日，而标普500指数下跌0.1%。期货市场定价显示，美联储晚些时候降息的可能性为88%，投资者正密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会，以寻找有关未来利率决定的线索。对大盘的乐观情绪似乎也在升温。芝加哥期权交易所全球市场公司衍生品市场情报主管Mandy Xu表示，过去两周投资者对标普500指数看涨期权的需求上升，且对看涨合约的兴趣超过了看跌期权。然而，并非所有人都看涨。IUR Capital董事总经理Gareth Ryan正准备迎接明年年初的回调。“2026年的前几个月可能会看到美股重新探底6500点的低位，”他在电话中表示。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2590032584","isCrawlerRequest":true}