AI基建热门股Ciena(CIEN.US)公布业绩在即，大摩保持“谨慎乐观”

智通财经2025-12-05

智通财经APP获悉，Ciena(ClEN.US)将于下周四发布第四季度业绩。摩根士丹利发布研报，重申对Ciena“持股观望”评级，但将目标价从140美元上调至185美元，以反映跨业务领域的规模扩张所带来的收益;预计短期内其股价将更接近乐观预期。自第三季度报告发布以来，由于对跨领域机会的乐观预期不断增强，Ciena估值持续攀升，环比增长超过 100%。Ciena之所以在最近的AI数据中心基建热潮中被...

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100%。Ciena之所以在最近的AI数据中心基建热潮中被看好并股价飙升，主要得益于其在高速网络设备和数据中心互联(DCI)技术方面的领先地位，这些技术对于支持庞大且快速增长的AI工作负载至关重要。AI工作负载(特别是大型语言模型训练)需要极高的数据传输速率。Ciena的首席执行官指出，为AI构建的强大数据中心正变得“大得令人难以置信”，这直接刺激了对高性能光纤网络设备的需求。 Ciena为云服务提供商生产光纤网络设备，用于连接各个大型数据中心。随着AI专门数据中心的建设激增(预计43%的新数据中心将专用于AI工作负载)，DCI带宽需求预计在未来五年内将增加六倍以上，为Ciena提供了巨大的市场机遇。Ciena在推进网络技术标准方面处于前沿。例如，该公司率先完成了448G/通道的实时演示，并进行了全球首条3.2T、2km链路实验，证明了其技术能够满足AI时代前所未有的高速率演进需求。但需要注意的是，大摩指出，由于2027财年预期市盈率约为 35 倍(买方预期市盈率为 28 倍)，因此在报告发布时不太可能出现另一个显著的上涨。大摩表示，通过在现有业务领域以及新产品类别(如 DCOM)上的规模扩张，Ciena将增加营收机会。鉴于数据可能进一步上升，大摩对业绩报告持乐观态度，但预计不会出现新的跳跃式增长，因为需求主要已体现在买方评估和估值中;预计Ciena将将其 2026 财年的营收增长指引上调至约 19%-20%，此前在第三季度电话会议中公布的指引为约 17%。正如大摩在本季度多次提到的那样，鉴于其竞争优势以及随着训练集群/推理应用场景的扩大，数据中心之间对密集连接的需求不断增长，Ciena在跨规模或数据中心互联领域具备良好的市场定位。大摩在奥克顿之行的总结报告以及对 ECOC 的访问中探讨了这些机会，但这些机会体现在其在长程DCl 市场中约 70%的份额、在插件方面的挑战者地位，以及帮助创造诸如 DCOM 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