国信证券：货币政策相机抉择净息差下降尾声

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智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年净息差降幅大幅收敛，并且大概率是此轮净息差下行周期尾声，这与前两年行业净息差普遍下行且底线不确定形成了鲜明的对比。2026年聚焦两条主线，一是净息差率先迎来拐点的优质个股以及改善幅度较大的低估值个股，二是绝对收益角度，积极布局股息率具有吸引力的基本面稳健个股。国信证券主要观点如下：目前大行净息差底线水平约1.2%~1.3%，已在底线附近（1）净息差...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251205171655a725a1c1&s=b><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年净息差降幅大幅收敛，并且大概率是此轮净息差下行周期尾声，这与前两年行业净息差普遍下行且底线不确定形成了鲜明的对比。2026年聚焦两条主线，一是净息差率先迎来拐点的优质个股以及改善幅度较大的低估值个股，二是绝对收益角度，积极布局股息率具有吸引力的基本面稳健个股。国信证券主要观点如下：目前大行净息差底线水平约1.2%~1.3%，已在底线附近（1）净息差...</p>\n\n<a 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decline","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03968":0.9,"03143":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年净息差降幅大幅收敛，并且大概率是此轮净息差下行周期尾声，这与前两年行业净息差普遍下行且底线不确定形成了鲜明的对比。2026年聚焦两条主线，一是净息差率先迎来拐点的优质个股以及改善幅度较大的低估值个股，二是绝对收益角度，积极布局股息率具有吸引力的基本面稳健个股。国信证券主要观点如下：目前大行净息差底线水平约1.2%~1.3%，已在底线附近（1）净息差底线思维的必要性：从资本平衡、盈亏平衡以及风险定价机制等角度而言，净息差维持一个合理水平是守住经济增长和金融稳定必要条件。（2）大行净息差底线测算：首先，确定经济增速目标以及对应的银行业总资产增速。预计“十五五”期间名义GDP增速为6.0%~6.9%，对应的M2增速需要维持在约7.0%~8.0%；根据M2派生方式，银行业总资产扩张速度约6.0%~7.0%。然后，资本角度测算，大行ROE底线约7%~8%，据此测算净息差底线约1.2%~1.3%。若LPR下降10bps，存款利率不调降，2026年净息差同比下降约5~8bps（1）首先，不考虑LPR继续下降，模型测算结果显示，2026年贷款利率下降约24bps，存款利率下降约14~17bps，对应的存贷业务拖累净息差下降约2~5bps。（2）不过该行判断2026年LPR大概率下降10bps，存款挂牌利率维持不变，银行会加大五年期等高息存款管控力度，测算结果显示净息差同比下降约5~8bps。结合净息差底线思维以及经济现状，该行判断2026年大概率也是此轮净息差下行周期的尾声。2026年货币政策展望：合理充裕+相机抉择，LPR下降约10bps，降准50bps（1）2026年降息需要精准审慎：“合理充裕+相机抉择”的总基调是“战略适配、现实约束、工具支撑”三大维度综合考量的最优选择。目前净息差和存款利率都已进入稳为主阶段，相机抉择地保持稳定大概率将是人行的政策选择，该行预计2026年LPR大概率下降10bps，更大幅度下降需要经济复苏受阻等数据触发。不过若LPR降幅扩大，则存款挂牌利率预计同步调降，净息差降幅受影响较小。不过经济复苏不及预期会冲击信贷需求和资产质量。（2）若M2增速7.0%~8.0%，测算的2026年基础货币缺口约为2.7~3.0万亿元。一是通过降准0.5%释放资金约1万亿元，二是广义再贷款和国债买卖合计投放约1.5~2.0万亿元；其中，国债买卖工具常态化，未来将逐步成为弥补货币缺口的重要工具。投资建议：重点推荐宁波银行、常熟银行；同时，积极关注长沙银行、渝农商行等，布局此类个股追求超额收益。重点推荐招商银行、工商银行、江苏银行等。风险提示：经济复苏不及预期，监管政策变动短期冲击银行基本面等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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国信证券：货币政策相机抉择 净息差下降尾声

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国信证券：货币政策相机抉择净息差下降尾声