黄金之后谁接棒？花旗2026展望看好铂族金属，工业替代与估值修复双轮驱动

华尔街见闻12-05 15:34

2026年，花旗研究团队对全球贵金属股票持偏积极态度，明确看好铂族金属（PGMs）优于黄金。据追风交易台，花旗银行在最新研究报告中表示，相比黄金，2026年铂族金属具备更优的风险回报特征。该投行认为，黄金价格已在每盎司4000美元附近企稳，风险回报相对均衡，而铂金和钯金则具备向上倾斜的潜力。花旗指出，铂族金属在过去三年中明显落后于黄金价格表现，铂金相对黄金交易价格大幅折价，这在历史上并不常见。...

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Citi's 2026 outlook is bullish on platinum group metals, industrial substitution and valuation repair are two-wheel drive","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"QOmain":1.5,"DUST":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"1OZmain":1.5,"NUGT":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"GCmain":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5},"content_text":"2026年，花旗研究团队对全球贵金属股票持偏积极态度，明确看好铂族金属（PGMs）优于黄金。\n据追风交易台，花旗银行在最新研究报告中表示，相比黄金，2026年铂族金属具备更优的风险回报特征。该投行认为，黄金价格已在每盎司4000美元附近企稳，风险回报相对均衡，而铂金和钯金则具备向上倾斜的潜力。\n花旗指出，铂族金属在过去三年中明显落后于黄金价格表现，铂金相对黄金交易价格大幅折价，这在历史上并不常见。该行分析师认为，工业需求中黄金向铂金的边际替代可能进一步支撑铂金和钯金价格。\n报告预测，当前黄金股票价格反映约3200美元/盎司的金价预期，较现货价格折价超过25%，而铂族金属股票价格反映约1220美元/盎司的一篮子价格，较现货折价超过20%。\n铂族金属估值优势明显\n据花旗研究，铂族金属在过去三年显著跑输黄金，铂金目前较黄金存在罕见的历史性折价。报告认为，随着工业需求边际替代黄金为铂金，铂金及钯金价格有望获得额外支撑。\n与此同时，铂族金属股票当前按1220美元/盎司篮子价格计价，较现货价格折价超过20%，估值吸引力明显。历史数据显示，贵金属股票价格与基础商品表现密切相关，黄金股票在过去5年中与金价的拟合优度（R²）超过82%。\n分析师指出，如果现货价格保持当前水平，股票价格有望出现重估驱动的上涨空间。这为投资者在当前折价水平进入市场提供了机会。\n投资者情绪分化明显，铂族金属板块潜在反转空间加大\n花旗的拥挤度评分显示，投资者对不同贵金属子板块态度存在分化。黄金股如AngloGold和Fresnillo被归类为\"共识做多\"，而铂族金属股票Sibanye和Impala则被边际性地归类为\"共识做空\"。\n\n这种情绪分化为铂族金属板块提供了额外的上涨空间，特别是在基本面改善的背景下。花旗认为，随着铂族金属价格回升和投资者重新评估该板块价值，相关股票有望获得更多关注。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2589893689","isCrawlerRequest":true}