国金证券：风险因子下调引导长钱长投，险资权益配置限制再放开

智通财经12-08

智通财经获悉，国金证券发布研报称，12月5日，金融监管总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》。展望明年，大量定存到期，对于低风险偏好、有长期财富保值增值诉求的资金来说，保险是较好选择，明年负债端的增长预期越加明朗；并且相较于前几年，新产品可以获取利差益，是更有“价值”的保单。银保渠道基于账户优势和客户资源的优势，预计将实现双位数增长，由于分红险转型推进，大公司的市占率提升将继续。长期...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202512081316319795c2e9&s=b><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经获悉，国金证券发布研报称，12月5日，金融监管总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》。展望明年，大量定存到期，对于低风险偏好、有长期财富保值增值诉求的资金来说，保险是较好选择，明年负债端的增长预期越加明朗；并且相较于前几年，新产品可以获取利差益，是更有“价值”的保单。银保渠道基于账户优势和客户资源的优势，预计将实现双位数增长，由于分红险转型推进，大公司的市占率提升将继续。长期...</p>\n\n<a 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again","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02601":0.9,"02318":0.9,"01336":0.9,"02628":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经获悉，国金证券发布研报称，12月5日，金融监管总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》。展望明年，大量定存到期，对于低风险偏好、有长期财富保值增值诉求的资金来说，保险是较好选择，明年负债端的增长预期越加明朗；并且相较于前几年，新产品可以获取利差益，是更有“价值”的保单。银保渠道基于账户优势和客户资源的优势，预计将实现双位数增长，由于分红险转型推进，大公司的市占率提升将继续。长期基本面向上，短期增长预期提升，当前保险估值仍然低位，配置性价比较高。国金证券主要观点如下：长期投资的股票风险因子下调，险资权益配置掣肘再迎放松1）持仓时间（根据过去六年加权平均持仓时间确定）超过三年的沪深300、中证红利低波动100指数成分股的风险因子从0.3下调至0.27；2）持仓时间（根据过去四年加权平均持仓时间确定）超过两年的科创板上市普通股的风险因子从0.4下调至0.36。本次风险因子调整是5月7日国新办新闻发布会内容的具体落实。彼时金融监管总局局长李云泽提出将推出三条措施支持稳定和活跃资本市场，包括“调整偿付能力的监管规则，将股票投资的风险因子进一步调降10%”。偿付能力充足率水平决定保险公司投资权益上限，风险因子下调从分母端释放偿付能力，实现股票配置规模的扩容综合偿付能力充足率=实际资本/最低资本，其对于权益配置的约束在于权益投资*风险因子影响最低资本要求，在同等资本占用下，保险公司可增配的股票规模=1/9*股票规模*A股占比*A股中符合风险因子9折的股票占比（即持仓超过3年的沪深300和中证红利低波100、持仓超过2年的科创板），以2025Q3人身险与财产险公司的股票规模为基准，假设保险公司持仓中A股占比70%、其中满足9折优惠的股票占比35%，测算全行业可增配的股票规模近千亿。风险因子调整对现阶段的偿付能力影响较小，预计对险企权益配置上限基本无影响预计当前险资配置中能满足持有期要求的股票较少，因此对偿付能力影响整体有限，据测算，对太平、新华、太保、平安、国寿五家寿险公司综合偿付能力充足率的提振幅度均在3%以内，考虑到750日均线继续向下，险企Q4偿付能力下行压力较大，因此预计以Q4偿付能力来看，各家险企综合偿付能力仍在150-250%的区间，权益配置上限不变，均为30%。政策意在引导长期投资，助力资本市场稳定运行，但短期内预计对险资权益资产增配意愿及规模的实际拉动作用有限尽管风险因子下调可通过降低权益资产最低资本占用释放部分偿付能力空间，但在当前行业整体偿付能力承压的背景下，预计险企不会仅仅因为风险因子下调就主动增配更多权益资产，从而导致偿付能力下降回原点。预计本《通知》意图有二，一是引导险资长钱长投，助力资本市场稳定运行；二是750日均线持续下行，险企普遍面临偿付能力压力，风险因子下调可一定程度上缓解险企压力。测算明年将有5500-6000亿增量资金入市，加仓情况有所分化1）今年部分公司仓位提升较快，如平安上半年股票+权益基金占比提升2.6pct，预计25H2仍有较大幅加仓，假设明年新增保费20%入市；2）国寿、太平、新华、人保四家央企继续落实每年新增保费30%投资于A股，以“经营活动产生的现金流”测算，对应配置规模约2500亿元进入A股；但部分加仓空间大的公司，预计新增保费不止有30%入市，假设国寿、太平预计将有40%的新增保费入市；太保、阳光非央企，但是仓位不高，也预计30%新增保费入市；3）其他非上市公司假设增量资金的40%进入股市。投资建议重点推荐：开门红预期较好，以及业务质地较好（负债成本低、资负匹配情况较好）的头部险企。风险提示1）权益市场波动；2）利率大幅下行；3）经济修复不及预期；4）新单销售不及预期。关键词阅读：金融监管总局 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