家用电器行业研究：如何看新兴市场白电景气度与格局？

长江证券12-07

新兴市场家电景气度如何？国内出口表现与上市公司财报的交叉验证均表明近两年新兴市场家电行业景气度较高。出口表现来看，2017-2024 年，国内空调、冰箱与洗衣机出口量CAGR 分别约为7%、8%和7%；分品类，空调出口增长主要受欧洲与新兴市场拉动，冰箱各区域均实现较好增长，其中拉美与东南亚增速相对更高，洗衣机则由欧美成熟市场贡献较大增量。但节奏上，2023 年以来拉美、非洲与东南亚等地区出口增长...

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公司东南亚与中东非收入增长环比进一步提速，南亚地区也保持着30%以上的高增。同时，欧美家电龙头惠而浦与伊莱克斯近几年虽然面临较大增长压力，但整体来看新兴市场表现同样优于成熟地区。展望后续，除欧洲区域在高温常态化后空调渗透率具有较大提升潜力外，成熟市场白电总量需求趋于成熟，而新兴市场潜在渗透空间广阔，预计将为全球家电产业的长期增长贡献重要动能。空间来看，经我们测算，当全球各地区家电户均保有量或渗透率达到稳态时，空调、冰箱与洗衣机产品全球年销量预计分别达5.03、2.39 和2.40 亿台，对应2024 年水平分别还有177%、40%和52%的增量空间。新兴市场竞争格局如何演变？随本地化布局的深入，凭借出色的产品及性价比等方面优势，国内企业新兴市场白电份额近年来实现显著突破。分区域来看，东南亚地区原本由日韩系品牌主导，过去几年国牌快速崛起，持续抢占前者份额；以空调为例，2015-2024 年，印尼地区格力、海尔与美的空调产品销量市占率分别提升10.4、4.9 和4.2pct，泰国地区海尔、美的分别提升6.6、4.6pct，同时TCL 与海信虽然进入时间较晚，但也已排入行业前十之列。拉美市场竞争较为焦灼，国牌、日韩系及本土企业份额中枢来看均有提升，与之相对的是欧美龙头份额大幅回落；聚焦国内企业来看，美的表现最为亮眼，空调品类市占率长期稳居市场首位，冰洗当前也已提升至行业前四。中东非地区国内企业份额总体增幅较大，韩企市占率明显承压。具体来看，2015-2024 年，空调海尔、美的与海信中东非销量市占率分别提升6.4、5.4、2.3pct，格力在起步较晚的情况下2024年市占率已突破11%，超越LG 升至行业第二；冰箱品类海信、美的增幅较大，分别提升7.3、3.7pct，海尔则有所回落；洗衣机品类美的、海尔与海信市占率分别提升5.9、2.5 和1.7pct。投资建议：把握新兴市场结构性增长机会受益于居民户均收入突破临界拐点，过去几年东南亚、拉美及中东非等新兴市场家电渗透率迎来加速提升，行业长期保持高景气，同时国内企业凭借深入的本地化布局与产品及性价比等方面优势正逐步抢占日韩系与欧美系企业份额。展望后续，国内市场面临潜在的基数与需求前置压力，增长中枢或边际放缓，海外成熟地区家电也已逐步进入成熟阶段，而新兴市场当前渗透率仍处于相对低位，且国内品牌仍保有较大份额提升潜力，有望为国内家电企业规模增长贡献长期势能。基于此，我们建议重点把握在新兴市场布局较为完善，有望享受全球结构性增长机会的白电龙头：美的集团、海尔智家、格力电器。风险提示1、宏观经济波动导致需求回落的风险；2、市场竞争加剧导致盈利回落风险；3、原材料价格波动风险；4、海外业务运营风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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