超级周期才刚开始！大摩：传统存储定价权将在2026年“进一步增强”

华尔街见闻12-05

在市场目光几乎全部聚焦于AI高带宽内存（HBM）的喧嚣之时，摩根士丹利的一份最新研报为那些寻找非拥挤交易的投资者提供了关键线索。据追风交易台，12月4日，由分析师Daniel Yen和Charlie Chan领导的大摩团队，在针对大中华区科技半导体的报告中指出，“传统存储”市场正在酝酿一场供需错配的完美风暴。对于仍在犹豫是否该在近期反弹中落袋为安的投资者，大摩的结论异常明确：周期才刚刚开始，现在...

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Chan领导的大摩团队，在针对大中华区科技半导体的报告中指出，“传统存储”市场正在酝酿一场供需错配的完美风暴。对于仍在犹豫是否该在近期反弹中落袋为安的投资者，大摩的结论异常明确：周期才刚刚开始，现在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760763\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0106831901.USD","symbol_name":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760763","article_id":"2589859646","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760763","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2589859646","pubTimestamp":1764894614,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"摩根士丹利报告指出，传统存储市场正迎来由供应短缺驱动的强劲“超级周期”，预计2026年第一季度DDR4合约价格可能飙升超100%，NOR 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Morgan Stanley: Traditional storage pricing power will be \"further enhanced\" in 2026","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"HBM":1},"content_text":"在市场目光几乎全部聚焦于AI高带宽内存（HBM）的喧嚣之时，摩根士丹利的一份最新研报为那些寻找非拥挤交易的投资者提供了关键线索。\n据追风交易台，12月4日，由分析师Daniel Yen和Charlie Chan领导的大摩团队，在针对大中华区科技半导体的报告中指出，“传统存储”市场正在酝酿一场供需错配的完美风暴。对于仍在犹豫是否该在近期反弹中落袋为安的投资者，大摩的结论异常明确：周期才刚刚开始，现在下车为时尚早。\n这不是获利了结的时候\n大摩早在今年二季度末就预判了传统存储的供应短缺将驱动一轮“超级周期”。如今，这一预判正在兑现，合约价格已在三季度末开始回升。从历史规律来看，纯粹的传统存储上升周期通常持续3-4个季度，这意味着上涨动能远未耗尽。\n报告直言不讳地指出，市场对于2026年的盈利预测可能仍过于保守：\n\n“这还不是获利了结的时候……共识盈利预期在2026年可能会有非常有意义的增长。”\n\nDDR4与NOR的“疯狂”定价\n报告中最引人注目的数据来自于DDR4市场的剧烈分化。受企业级需求推动，DDR4的初步价格谈判对供应商极为有利。\n大摩预计，2026年第一季度的合约价格可能飙升超过100%。目前的供需紧张程度令人咋舌，尤其是16Gb DDR4产品严重短缺，渠道库存已接近于零。而这种短缺直接导致了现货市场与DRAMeXchange基准价格的惊人背离：\n\n“现货价格高达100美元，而DRAMeXchange 显示的现货价格仅为45.5美元。”\n\n与此同时，减产效应正在全面扩散至Flash产品。由于晶圆价值较低且后端封测价格上涨，NOR Flash供应商正将产能重新分配至其他产品。大摩预测，2026年NOR的供应缺口将从低至中个位数扩大到“高个位数”，并推动其价格在明年一季度上涨超过20%。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.10","shortVersion":"4.35.10","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2589859646","isCrawlerRequest":true}