保险2026年展望：再迎黄金时代

中金公司12-08

投资建议2022 年底我们判断寿险行业将迈向新增长周期，但因利率下行等因素，2023 年以来的负债增长说服力不强，行业股价主要受波动更剧烈的资产端影响；展望2026 年，我们认为寿险行业将再入黄金发展期、负债端有更积极的发展趋势呈现，行业投资逻辑将从“寻求存量业务的重估修复”重回 “给予成长能力估值溢价”，优质寿险有望王者归来、目标估值重回1.0x P/EV之上。理由中资寿险：五大趋势，王者归来。...

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年，我们认为寿险行业五大趋势值得关注：1）新业务延续快速增长，拥抱“存款搬家”和“健康险新时代”；2）新业务刚性成本进一步下降，新业务价值说服力增强；3）新业务产品结构多元化、优质公司业务结构优化更显著且新业务质量与同业分化；4）行业客群层级向上迁移，同时行业经营模式、人才以此为契机开启升级优化；5）竞争格局向具备寿险经营能力的公司集中。我们认为中国大陆保险行业正实质性走向高质量发展，龙头公司有望王者归来。财险：车险盈利稳健，非车和出海锦上添花。展望2026 年，我们预计车险保费缓慢增长，头部公司业务结构持续优化推动承保盈利稳健改善，新能源车险逐步走向盈利区间；低通胀环境下非车险增长预计会继续降速、而健康险有望成为重要增长驱动，“报行合一”后大型公司非车承保盈利有望开启上升趋势。此外，我们认为中国财险行业当前内外部环境与上世纪80 年代后日本财险存在结构性相似、具备复刻其成功出海路径的重要历史机遇。香港寿险：中国大陆业务或再成投资亮点。过去几年友邦等香港寿险主体因外资对中国资产的担忧及对中国大陆保险行业发展前景的质疑持续下跌；展望2026 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