房地产开发行业周报2025W49：本周新房成交同比-47.7% 多地“十五五”规划建议提好房子

国盛证券2025-12-07

近期全国多地陆续发布“十五五”规划建议，在房地产方面频繁提到“好房子”、“市场+保障”等供给端政策。如浙江省委关于十五五规划建议提到：1、高质量推进城市更新，一体推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区建设，加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量发展。2、在建设高质量社会保障体系中，提出要优化保障性住房供给，以满足各类困难家庭的基本住房需求。北京市委关于十五五规划建议提到：1、加快完善“市场+保障”...

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The \"15th Five-Year Plan\" in many places recommends improving houses","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03121":0.6,"06968":1.5,"00688":0.9,"00123":0.9},"content_text":"近期全国多地陆续发布“十五五”规划建议，在房地产方面频繁提到“好房子”、“市场+保障”等供给端政策。如浙江省委关于十五五规划建议提到：1、高质量推进城市更新，一体推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区建设，加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量发展。2、在建设高质量社会保障体系中，提出要优化保障性住房供给，以满足各类困难家庭的基本住房需求。北京市委关于十五五规划建议提到：1、加快完善“市场+保障”的住房供应体系和租购并举的住房制度。2、实施以公共交通为导向的综合开发。3、加大存量资源盘活力度，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本住房需求。4、建设安全舒适绿色智慧的“好房子”，实施房屋品质提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动，增加改善性住房供给。5、有序推进老城平房区整院成片区改造，持续实施老旧小区、危旧楼房和城中村改造，鼓励产权主体自主更新。行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-2.2%，落后沪深300 指数3.43 个百分点，在31 个申万一级行业排名第30 名。新房：本周30 个城市新房成交面积为176.6 万平方米，环比下降6.5%，同比下降47.7%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为51.7 万方，环比-6.2%，同比-30.3%；样本二线城市为98.7 万方，环比-8.7%，同比-49.5%；样本三线城市为26.2 万方，环比+2.4%，同比-61.5%。从今年累计49 周新房成交面积同比看，样本30 城共计8958.7 万方，同比-12.4%；一线城市为2399.7 万方，同比-8.6%；二线城市为4393.4 万方，同比-12.6%；三线城市为2165.6 万方，同比-16.0%。二手房：本周14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计190.7 万方，环比下降5.3%，同比下降40.8%。其中样本一线城市的本周二手房成交面积为81.7 万方，环比-7.4%；样本二线城市为80.2 万方，环比-4.3%；样本三线城市为28.8 万方，环比-2.1%。信用债：本周（12.1-12.7）共发行房企信用债9 只，环比减少12 只；发行规模共计65.68 亿元，环比减少112.72 亿元，总偿还量87 亿元，环比增加29.82 亿元，净融资额为-21.32 亿元，环比减少142.54 亿元。投资建议：维持行业“增持”评级。我们认为重点关注房地产相关股票有以下理由：1、政策受基本面倒逼进入深水区，如我们2022、2023 年在报告中反复阐述，认为本轮最终政策力度超过2008、2014 年，而现在尚在途中。2、地产作为早周期指标，具备指向性作用，配置地产相当于配置经济风向标。3、行业竞争格局改善逻辑依旧适用，拿地和销售表现优异的依然是头部国央企和少量混合所有制及民企，品质房企有望在未来的格局中更加受益。4、我们观点“只看好一线+2+/极3 二少线量三线城市”依然奏效，这个城市组合在销售前期偶尔反弹时表现更好也得到了印证。5、供给侧政策，收储、妥善处置闲置土地等政策有新变化，依然是观察落地最重要的方向，且可以预见，一二线仍然更受益。基于以上，我们认为2025年下半年仍然是以政策为核心主导力量，板块主做政策beta，节奏和仓位控制更重要，配置方向可选：（1）基本面alpha 公司：H 股的绿城中国、建发国际集团、越秀地产、华润置地、中国海外发展；A 股的滨江集团、招商蛇口、保利发展、华发股份、建发股份；（2）地方国企/城投/化债：城投控股、城建发展；（3）中介：贝壳；（4）物业属于跟涨：华润万象生活、保利物业、中海物业、绿城服务、招商积余等。风险提示：政策落地不及预期、需求复苏不及预期、房企出险风险蔓延。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2589687486","isCrawlerRequest":true}