AI革命下的“失败者名单”：投行 Wedbush预警，这些巨头正被时代抛弃

智通财经网12-08 21:35

智通财经APP注意到，人工智能正在彻底改变各个行业的支出方式，使英伟达(NVDA.US)、AMD(AMD.US)等公司受益。但在一部分公司成为赢家的同时，投行 Wedbush Securities 也列出了一份可能受到人工智能负面冲击的公司名单。在半导体和 PC 领域，Wedbush 认为“飙升的计算机内存需求”正在挤压与传统 PC 和手机领域相关的公司，对英特尔(INTC.US)、惠普(HPQ....

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和手机领域相关的公司，对英特尔(INTC.US)、惠普(HPQ.US)、Synaptics(SYNA.US)、高通(QCOM.US)、Qorvo(QRVO.US)和 Cirrus Logic(CRUS.US)造成负面影响。该公司的分析师在给客户的一份报告中写道：“鉴于计算机内存供应集中且受 AI 基础设施驱动的需求飙升，内存定价正在飞涨。”“我们预计，随着超大规模厂商锁定供应，而晶圆厂空间限制了产能增加，2025 年第四季度 DRAM 合约价格将上涨 30% 以上，NAND 闪存价格可能上涨至少 20%，预计 2026 年还会进一步上涨。由于内存约占 PC 物料清单的 20%，内存平均价格上涨 27.5% 意味着 5.5% 的销货成本影响，以及对于惠普等设备制造商来说，毛利率将压缩 300-440 个基点。在竞争激烈且弹性大的消费 PC 市场中，这些制造商无法提高价格;反之，如果制造商大幅提价，将面临严重的需求破坏。”除了芯片之外，Wedbush 补充说，自动驾驶汽车的兴起可能会对优步(UBER.US)和 Lyft(LYFT.US)等网约车公司产生负面影响。该公司指出，特斯拉(TSLA.US)的首批没有安全驾驶员的自动驾驶汽车将在年底前在德克萨斯州奥斯汀投入使用。分析师解释道：“自动驾驶车队无需人工劳动力即可运送人员和货物，这标志着交通运输经济学领域自十年前网约车推出以来最具影响力的转变。我们预计这将带来巨大的颠覆，特别是在运输网络领域。随着自动驾驶(AV)网络规模化，价值将流向拥有 (1) 车队、(2) 数据沉淀和 (3) 闭环经济效益的平台。这从根本上削弱了优步和 Lyft 轻资产的网约车模式。”广告领域也可能受到负面影响，因为代理式 AI(Agentic AI)正在引发广告商资金流向的巨变。因此，Wedbush 下调了 Pinterest(PINS.US)的评级，并认为 The Trade Desk(TTD.US)将受到负面影响，因为广告商将转向“转化率经过验证的生态系统”，例如亚马逊( AMZN.US)、Meta 的 Advantage+(META.US)、谷歌的 Performance Max(GOOGL.US)和 AppLovin 的 AXON 2.0(APP.US)。该行分析师解释说：“在一个代理式 AI 的世界中，广告支出应该流向那些提供最丰富的第一方数据、可衡量的转化率和最短‘信号到销售’反馈循环的平台。”Adobe(ADBE.US)、Docusign(DOCU.US)和 Workday(WDAY.US)等主要的软件即服务 (SaaS) 公司也可能受到负面影响。Wedbush 预计，虽然一些公司会超越其基于云的商业模式并更专注于按使用量付费，但那些高成本产品的公司很可能会受到冲击。“就像过去的企业软件演进周期一样，颠覆者通常首先通过与较小的公司合作或在利基应用中取得成功，然后才会威胁到大型企业核心职能中根深蒂固的竞争对手。面临最大威胁的包括Adobe、Docusign和 Workday。”与此同时，Wedbush 将 Nice Systems(NICE.US)的评级从“跑赢大盘”下调至“中性”，并将目标价从 170 美元下调至 120 美元。最后，Wedbush 认为代理式 AI 对零售业的影响正在颠覆许多领域，包括 Instacart(CART.US)等中介机构。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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