中信证券：保险行业周期向好正式确立

中信证券2025-12-08

保险行业已从资产负债表衰退叙事中率先走向良性扩张，周期向好正式确立，预计2026年向上趋势进一步加强，体现为：净资产恢复并维持较快增长、分红险作为主力产品更加畅销、银保渠道份额集中和总量增长仍然具有很大空间、险资作为耐心资本主力，目前资产结构正受益于债券利率低位波动、股市慢牛的市场格局。从选股角度看，保险股阿尔法和贝塔兼具，2024和2025年牛市带来的业绩弹性已较为充分体现，我们更加关注保单价值...

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3 年平均财务投资收益率和综合投资收益率的较低者，应当充分论证拟分红水平的必要性、合理性和可持续性，提交资产负债管理委员会审定后实施。2024年资本市场股债双牛、2025年以来股票市场进一步向好，我们预计保险公司三年平均投资收益率显著向好，有望确保分红险实现预期收益率。相反，高配债券的银行理财、债券型基金、转标后的信托计划和资管产品以做多债券为主要盈利来源，面临较大的债市波动风险。“报行合一”重塑银保渠道格局，步入量价齐升的新阶段。根据“13个精算师”公众号，2016年银保渠道新单规模保费达1.7万亿元，随着监管对激进保险公司的处理和高现金价值产品的限制，银保渠道新单规模保费显著下降至2020年的1万亿元左右；2023年监管进一步推动银保渠道“报行合一”，降低渠道费用30%以上，2024年银保新单保费下降至7300亿元左右，同时份额显著向中大型保险公司集中。2025年上半年，上市保险公司继续受益银保份额的集中；同时，随着5月20日主要大行5年期存款利率下调至1.3%，以及疫情期间超额储蓄存款大量到期，银保渠道新单保费整体恢复快速增长。我们预计2026年头部公司银保份额仍然有较大提升空间，同时储蓄存款向保险迁移带来新单保费总量增长刚刚开始。险资增配权益是长期趋势，成为权益市场重要增量资金。从增量投资资产角度看，根据历史经验，考虑保费收入、赔付支出、费用支出等因素，我们预计年增量投资资产在2-3万亿元；从到期再投资角度看，主要考虑存款、非标债权、债券等到期因素，我们预计年再配置资产在3万亿元左右；二者合计5-6万亿元。考虑到目前国债利率仍然处于相对低位，而我们测算以大银行、运营商为代表的高股息资产回报率仍然在5%以上（股息率+成长性），预计保险公司仍然有动力提升股票配置比例。此外，监管机构仍然积极引导险资入市，尤其是继续引导央企保险公司增加A股入市比例。险资年度需要配置资产为5-6万亿元（增量投资资产+到期再投资资产），中性假设按20%权益配置比例测算，预计可带来权益投资资金1.2万亿元。站在未来五年角度考虑，我们预计险资增配权益行为具有可持续性，合计将带来权益投资资金超过6万亿元。风险因素：长端利率继续大幅下行、股市大幅波动、保单销售不及预期、代理人队伍继续脱落压力。投资策略：新周期确立，迎接保险股重大机遇，从买贝塔转向买阿尔法。2021-2024年，保险板块受损利率单边下行周期，重点销售传统险，只有贝塔价值；2024年以来，保险公司积极转型，2025年以来分红险销售占比大幅提高，同时随着利率企稳，股市向好，阿尔法和贝塔兼具；展望2026年，预计保险公司贝塔属性已经显著释放，但阿尔法属性仍然处于慢变量积累中。建议重点关注保单价值率高、新业务价值增长好、重视高股息资产配置带来收益稳定向好的公司。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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