2026不靠降价，比亚迪销量也能破500万？

路咖汽车12-06 17:31

lookartv.com12月5日的临时股东大会上，比亚迪掌门人王传福对当下的趋势作出了两个重要判断，“任何新技术只能领先十八个月”，“我们可能会丢掉一两个月甚至一两个季度的增长”。在面对国内增速放缓和海外表现超预期时，王传福没有给出豪言，他说对手跟的很紧，未来几年会继续发布引领行业的技术。王传福坦言，过去几年打的是顺风战，但现在对手与自己的技术差距，越来越小。问题被重新摆在2026的门口：当新...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251206174728a7276de0&s=b><strong>路咖汽车</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>lookartv.com12月5日的临时股东大会上，比亚迪掌门人王传福对当下的趋势作出了两个重要判断，“任何新技术只能领先十八个月”，“我们可能会丢掉一两个月甚至一两个季度的增长”。在面对国内增速放缓和海外表现超预期时，王传福没有给出豪言，他说对手跟的很紧，未来几年会继续发布引领行业的技术。王传福坦言，过去几年打的是顺风战，但现在对手与自己的技术差距，越来越小。问题被重新摆在2026的门口：当新...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251206174728a7276de0&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0348767384.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) 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cuts?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"01211":1.95,"002594":1.95,"BYDDY":1.95},"content_text":"lookartv.com12月5日的临时股东大会上，比亚迪掌门人王传福对当下的趋势作出了两个重要判断，“任何新技术只能领先十八个月”，“我们可能会丢掉一两个月甚至一两个季度的增长”。在面对国内增速放缓和海外表现超预期时，王传福没有给出豪言，他说对手跟的很紧，未来几年会继续发布引领行业的技术。王传福坦言，过去几年打的是顺风战，但现在对手与自己的技术差距，越来越小。问题被重新摆在2026的门口：当新技术红利期越来越短、一季度的需求被提前透支，强调不打价格战的比亚迪，能否重新进入顺风局。新技术能否复现领先18个月的红利？王传福说“技术领先是有期限的，最多十八个月。”这就意味着，任何新技术领先的红利，都会在一年半的时间内消失殆尽。“我们可能会丢掉一两个月或者一两个季度的业绩增长。”王传福在股东大会上对接下来的销量趋势，做出了预判。离2025年结束还有不到一个月时间，今年以来，比亚迪国内销量增速放缓和海外销量增长并存，累计销售新车418.2万辆，同比增长约+11.3%，11月单月48.02万辆创年内高点，出口首次跨越10万辆级。“比亚迪在海外的品牌形象，比国内好很多。今年海外增长非常好超出预期。国内市场还需要一定的时间，技术发展需要周期”.....王传福说道。这其中的关键就是，即将发布的重磅新技术，能否为比亚迪带来销量上的红利。王传福说，“三年五年前，我还经常出去讲战略，现在不能讲，很多对手在用比亚迪的战略去落地。对手跟的太紧，我们多保密一天，就领先18个月+1天。”他在股东大会上透露，在电动化的上半场，新能源汽车依然有充电慢、低温充电难的问题没有解决。比亚迪也正在努力克服这一块的难题。在此之前，比亚迪刀片电池与DM-i技术的成功，核心在于提供了当时市场亟需的“系统性解决方案”，而非仅仅是某个单一的参数优势。比如，刀片电池提升了磷酸铁锂电池的地位。其高度集成化设计，也为车身结构和空间优化带来益处。DM-i超级混动，精准命中了用户在燃油经济性、续航便利性和电动化体验之间的平衡需求，成为比亚迪销量在短时间内实现井喷式增长的关键。更关键的它们具备广泛的普适性，能够在多个产品线迅速铺开。而在新一轮的技术周期中，新能源汽车产业链的成熟使得技术壁垒不如早期那么高。竞品往往能在更短时间内推出类似或部分超越的技术，尤其是在智能化方面，头部玩家众多。消费者对技术的关注已经从“有没有”转变为关注“好不好”和“适不适合”。新技术要像刀片电池和DM-i一样取得巨大成功，不仅要领先，更要精准满足未来最普遍、最核心的用户痛点。2026年，销量突破500万并不难？结合前11个月的销量，比亚迪在2025年预计实现465万至470万辆的年度销量。这样一来，即便2025年比亚迪销量增速降至个位数，只要保持6.5%–7.5%的增幅，2026年依然有希望年销量突破500万辆的。从整体市场看，2025年前11月，国内车企两强分明，比亚迪与上汽均越过400万俱乐部，比亚迪领先上汽约7.4万，吉利直追300万年销量，长安与奇瑞处于260万与250万级，长城稳定在120万级。出海层面，奇瑞120万辆事先领跑。上汽与比亚迪位列第二梯队，长安、长城、吉利紧随其后。从新能源渗透看，长安、吉利、奇瑞的新能源板块增长快于总体；长安新能源1-11月同比+54.66%，吉利11月新能源销量18.78万创高位；比亚迪继续凭规模维持新能源第一。结合前11个月的销量预测，比亚迪与上汽将继续维持前二的位置。接下来，对所有玩家最大的变量将是补贴政策的调整。结合最近的市场情况看，在明年购置税减半、地方置换补贴的减少等因素下，明年一季度的消费需求可能被提前透支。摩根大通在今年10月份作出预测，新能源汽车补贴政策的调整，中国汽车销量可能会在2026年出现下滑，打破六年的连续增长，最差可能下滑5%。王传福所说的“18个月技术周期”在2026年将体现出更残酷的现实意义。虽说多个权威机构预测，新能源汽车市场的渗透率持续攀升，预计在2026年有望站稳甚至突破60%。但高渗透率带来的不是量的无限扩张，而是更为激烈的“存量博弈”与“增量结构分化”。在这一阶段，竞争不再仅仅是与燃油车的对决，而是新能源内部的“绞杀战”。每推出一项新技术，在失去补贴放大效应的环境下，它所能带来的“红利期”可能被进一步压缩。对手的快速模仿、成本的迅速下压、以及市场对技术落地速度和规模效应的苛求，都将迫使企业在更短的时间内完成技术的商业化与普及。从前不久广州车展的动向看，多家车企都在布局新技术的下探。比如，搭载天神之眼B方案的汉L、唐L，通过最新的升级解锁了车位到车位的辅助驾驶功能。目前市面上支持该功能的新车，至少要比汉L、唐L的价位高出几万元。即便比亚迪未来一两个季度不再保持高速增长，2026年销量突破500万辆也并非难事。王传福说，“激进的销售或激进的话术去赢得更多一点的市场份额，对我们来说并不难。但我们要用行动支持反内卷。”言外之意，过去用低价快速抢占市场份额的方式，后面很难再有。作者丨曼达","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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