突破前高！沪铜牛市延续？

华创期货08:52

【摘要】沪铜盘面表现强势，其背后核心驱动因素是什么？是否意味着新一轮上涨趋势的启动？【温馨提醒】市场风云变幻，期市波动起伏。光靠看盘可不够！加入我们的专属社群，专业分析师实时直播、金牌客服推送核心研报等。点击专属客服通道，立即加入交流群！立即进群>>行情回顾12月4日，沪铜主力合约呈现放量上行态势，成功突破前期关键阻力位。截至下午收盘，沪铜2601合约报收90980元/吨，较前一交易日结算价上涨...

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Shanghai copper bull market continues?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02899":0.9},"content_text":"【摘要】沪铜盘面表现强势，其背后核心驱动因素是什么？是否意味着新一轮上涨趋势的启动？【温馨提醒】市场风云变幻，期市波动起伏。光靠看盘可不够！加入我们的专属社群，专业分析师实时直播、金牌客服推送核心研报等。点击专属客服通道，立即加入交流群！立即进群>>行情回顾12月4日，沪铜主力合约呈现放量上行态势，成功突破前期关键阻力位。截至下午收盘，沪铜2601合约报收90980元/吨，较前一交易日结算价上涨2010元/吨，涨幅2.26%。盘面表现强势，其背后核心驱动因素是什么？是否意味着新一轮上涨趋势的启动？供应紧张8月以来，国内电解铜产量持续回落，供应紧张的核心矛盾集中于铜精矿的极度短缺。海外矿山事故频发，叠加国内冶炼产能扩张受限，进一步加剧了原料端压力。智利矿山坍塌，印尼自由港铜矿因泥石流停产，秘鲁社会动荡以及刚果（金）武装冲突等一系列事件，已导致多家矿业巨头相继下调年度产量指引。面对原料端的持续挤压，我国正借鉴铝行业调控经验，加强对铜冶炼产能的规范化管理。据行业会议信息，国内已叫停约200万吨违规冶炼产能，旨在遏制行业无序扩张，同时，中国铜原料联合谈判小组也倡议成员企业联合减产以应对当前低加工费困境，上游成本压力与产业政策约束共同作用，标志着铜冶炼粗放扩张时代的终结，行业正步入结构优化与供给约束并行的新阶段。需求旺盛从需求结构来看，传统领域虽面临压力，但仍具一定韧性，绿色需求已成为铜消费增长的核心驱动力。房地产行业持续调整，且当前高铜价对线缆等传统领域的采购意愿形成明显抑制，然而，电网投资展现出较强的稳定性，今年国家电网全年固定资产投资额有望首次突破6500亿元，创历史新高，为传统铜需求提供了基础支撑。在新能源汽车、光伏、风电、储能及数据中心等新兴产业的强劲拉动下，预计2025年我国该领域铜消费量将达到380万至400万吨，新兴产业的持续扩张是支撑市场对铜价长期乐观预期的关键因素。库存偏低当前全球铜显性库存呈现显著的区域性分化格局，一方面，受政策不确定性溢价等因素驱动，大量库存持续流向并锁定于美国COMEX仓库；另一方面，美国以外地区的可见库存持续趋紧。伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜库存自9月以来进入去化周期，近期注销仓单比例快速上升，现货对三月期升水已转为正值并持续走阔，表明近端供应趋于紧张。与此同时，上海期货交易所（SHFE）交割库库存已降至不足10万吨。这种极端的区域库存错配降低了全球铜供给端的整体弹性，使得局部供需波动更容易被放大，从而对价格形成间歇性、脉冲式的上行驱动。行情展望沪铜此番放量突破，标志着市场在经历高位震荡后，选择了向上突破的方向。驱动逻辑从单纯的预期推动，逐渐转向宏观与产业基本面的双重验证。虽然途中难免因预期差和价格抑制需求而出现高位波动与震荡，但在全球绿色能源转型与人工智能革命带来的长期结构性需求故事，以及铜矿供应预期收紧的根本性矛盾解决之前，铜价的强势格局难以扭转。不过，当前价格已创历史新高，在顺应趋势的同时，也应当保持理性，重点关注宏观政策信号的细微变化以及库存曲线的实际走向，以应对可能加剧的价格波动。【华创期货投研团队】期货交易咨询业务经营许可证编号：【渝证监许可〔2017〕1号】陈长宏交易咨询资格证：Z0017587期货从业资格证：F03097919制作时间：2025年12月5日关联个股仅为期货品种相关个股展示，本文不涉及个股分析，也不构成任何股票推荐。【关联个股】紫金矿业（601899）、洛阳钼业（603993）、江西铜业（600362）、铜陵有色（000630）、西部矿业（601168）、北方铜业（000737）、云南铜业(000878)、精艺股份（002295）作者声明：作者具有中国期货业协会授予的期货交易咨询资格，承诺以谨慎、勤勉、尽责的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。报告所采用的数据均来自合法渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，研究方法专业审慎，研究观点客观公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，特此声明。免责声明：本报告仅供华创期货有限责任公司（以下简称“本公司”）的客户使用。本公司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视其为本公司当然客户。本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料和合法渠道，本公司对该信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。市场行情瞬息万变，报告中的观点仅代表报告撰写时的判断，仅供客户参考之用，不作为客户的直接交易依据，本公司不因客户使用本报告而产生的损失承担任何责任。在任何情况下，本公司不向客户做获利保证，不与客户分享收益，与客户无利益冲突，请您自主决策，盈亏自负，并注意潜在的市场变化和交易风险。交易有风险，入市需谨慎。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发表或引用。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为“华创期货”，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2589085905","isCrawlerRequest":true}