市场恐惧时，如何看待Meta的“AI豪赌”？

美港股观察社12-04 18:00

作者：James Foord编译：美港股观察社论点摘要说市场变幻无常、投资者目光短浅，其实还是保守的说法。就在六个月前，谷歌或许还是“Mag 7”中最不受待见的股票。当时市场认为人工智能会摧毁其业务，谷歌将被远远甩在身后。如今，谷歌却被视作人工智能领域的领军者，市值较六个月前上涨了80%。而Meta将成为下一个谷歌。目前Meta股价较历史高点下跌逾15%，只因市场叙事已从“人工智能带来的收益”转向...

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gamble\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FB":1.5,"META":0.9},"content_text":"作者：James Foord编译：美港股观察社论点摘要说市场变幻无常、投资者目光短浅，其实还是保守的说法。就在六个月前，谷歌或许还是“Mag 7”中最不受待见的股票。当时市场认为人工智能会摧毁其业务，谷歌将被远远甩在身后。如今，谷歌却被视作人工智能领域的领军者，市值较六个月前上涨了80%。而Meta将成为下一个谷歌。目前Meta股价较历史高点下跌逾15%，只因市场叙事已从“人工智能带来的收益”转向“Meta正在承担的巨额投资成本”。但市场叙事再次转变只是时间问题，未来十年Meta必将成为人工智能领域最大受益者之一，这一点终将显而易见。叙事转变Meta的涨势在最新财报发布后开始放缓。因为Meta正大力投资人工智能，且如今它不再只动用账上现金，还开始举债。为满足激进的资本支出需求，Meta在10月通过发行债券筹集了290亿美元。此举最终可能为公司每年增加23亿美元的利息支出，相当于其2024年营收的1.4%。投资者正争相向Meta注资，而这并不会对公司的长期可持续性、财务健康状况，甚至利润率造成重大影响。但如今风险也更高了：人工智能投资必须有所回报，否则Meta将陷入困境。为何市场判断有误市场忽略了两个关键因素。1）600亿美元的人工智能引擎Meta的端到端人工智能广告套件（包括Advantage+工具），年化营收已突破600亿美元。该套件采用先进的人工智能模型，实现广告创建、定向投放和位置选择的自动化，为广告商带来“极致效率”。其成效令人震惊。使用Meta生成式人工智能工具的企业，转化率平均提升7%；而部分采用自动化Advantage+购物功能的广告活动，单次购买成本降幅最高达58%。这些并非微不足道的收益，而是结构性的效率提升——既能锁定广告商的支出，也为Meta赋予了强大的定价权。2）数据护城河与新生态系统另一方面，我们必须承认，Meta拥有一项全球几乎所有公司都不具备的优势：十亿用户规模的数据护城河。它掌握的用户数据，是其推荐算法和广告算法保持领先的核心燃料。这对营收的影响，远不止通过人工智能优化广告那么简单。例如，Llama大模型的开源战略推动了大规模采用，形成了庞大的用户社区。对于需要在安全、可定制环境中运行模型的大型企业，Meta可通过授权许可和高端服务（如与AWS的合作），将其直接转化为高利润率的企业级业务。此外，Meta的人工智能助手月活跃用户已接近5亿，且已集成到雷朋Meta智能眼镜等新硬件中——Meta正借此打造全新的消费者生态系统。这些触点未来将通过高端功能、商业代理（可为用户完成任务的人工智能机器人）和场景化商务实现变现，让营收来源不再局限于传统信息流广告，实现多元化发展。就像当初市场担忧谷歌的人工智能投资，最终却见证其成为推动80%涨幅的催化剂一样，如今的投资者也低估了Meta当前支出周期的回报潜力。Meta正在巩固未来十年的竞争地位，而最终的利润率提升和变现加速，将证明当前市场对其的估值折价是大错特错的。估值然而现状是，Meta的估值远低于同行。无论是从市盈率、市现率，还是动态PEG来看，Meta的吸引力都极强。只有英伟达的动态PEG低于Meta，但在其他所有指标上，Meta的估值都堪称最优。风险人工智能军备竞赛仍是主要威胁。谷歌（Gemini大模型）、OpenAI等竞争对手正持续快速创新。若某一竞争对手推出远超行业水平的基础模型，或一款“杀手级”消费级人工智能应用，可能会迅速削弱Meta的用户粘性护城河，并降低其专有基础设施的价值。不过，Meta面临的另一大问题，恰恰源于其最大的优势。没错，Meta拥有庞大的数据护城河，但这也可能使其成为监管机构的目标。全球监管机构正密切关注这一领域，欧盟《数字市场法案》的出台就体现了监管方向的重大转变。最后，吸引并留住全球顶尖的人工智能人才，是一场持续且高昂的斗争——而这直接决定了Meta能否长期保持竞争力，实现其发展愿景。总结当然，投资人工智能领域存在风险，但目前来看，潜在收益远大于风险。Meta和谷歌，无疑是最有可能从人工智能发展中获益的两只股票。谷歌的高光时刻已然到来，那么Meta还会远吗？","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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