并非“泡沫”，但或存“空窗期”：华尔街称人工智能叙事需迎来调整

新浪财经2025-12-04

来源：环球市场播报华尔街两大巨头表示，人工智能热潮绝非投机性狂热。贝莱德（BlackRock）与美国银行（Bank of America）认为，此轮人工智能周期由真实的企业投资、盈利增长及生产效率提升驱动，而非 21 世纪初互联网泡沫时期那种非理性繁荣。“我们认为，现阶段用‘泡沫’来定义市场，对投资者并无太大参考价值，” 贝莱德投资研究所所长让・布瓦万（Jean Boivin）在周二的媒体圆桌会议...

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他表示，“真正需要警惕的是，当市场完全不再讨论这类风险时。”贝莱德认为，人工智能领域的支出热潮规模庞大，已成为宏观层面的核心议题。该机构称，企业投资规模可能推动美国 GDP 增速持续高于过去数十年间 2% 的趋势水平。“与人工智能发展相关的资本支出目标规模极大，已达到‘微观影响宏观’的程度，” 贝莱德在展望报告中写道，并预估到 2030 年，全球企业在人工智能领域的支出计划将达 5 万亿至 8 万亿美元，其中大部分集中在美国。“投资者面临的挑战在于：如何平衡庞大的资本支出计划与潜在的人工智能收入，” 贝莱德补充道，“两者的规模是否能匹配？”华尔街两大机构 —— 贝莱德与美国银行均表示，人工智能热潮并非泡沫。贝莱德还指出，人工智能领域的发展面临硬件层面的限制，从算力到电网均存在瓶颈。该机构提到，到本十年末，人工智能数据中心的耗电量可能占美国总耗电量的 15% 至 20%。这使得该领域的发展既具有变革性，也存在脆弱性：“为实现最终收益，现阶段集中投入支出是必要的，” 贝莱德在报告中写道。贝莱德表示，这些压力是结构性转变的一部分，认为人工智能正推动股市创下历史新高，且 “仍倾向于风险资产，同时认为人工智能主题仍是美国股市的主要驱动力”。从 “泡沫” 到 “空窗期”美国银行的观点与此类似，但对人工智能热潮下一阶段的发展态势发出了更明确的警示。“现在是 2000 年吗？我们正处于泡沫中吗？答案是否定的，” 美国银行美国股票与量化策略主管萨维塔・苏布拉马尼亚姆（Savita Subramanian）在周二的展望电话会议中表示，“人工智能领域的领先地位会毫无阻碍地延续吗？答案同样是否定的。”苏布拉马尼亚姆认为，当前市场环境更像是阶段性停滞，而非崩盘的开端。她提出了 “空窗期” 的概念 —— 即资本支出增速超过收入增长的阶段。这种投资与变现之间的时间差（尤其是在电力和基础设施瓶颈问题凸显的背景下），可能在短期内引发投资者担忧。部分风险已体现在资产负债表中。美国银行数据显示，过去一年，超大规模科技公司的资本支出占运营现金流的比例已从十年前的 30% 升至 60%，但仍远低于互联网泡沫时期 140% 的峰值。该机构还预测，随着人工智能领域持续发展，微软（MSFT）、亚马逊（AMZN）、谷歌（GOOG、GOOGL）、元宇宙平台公司（META）、甲骨文（ORCL）等超大规模科技公司的资本支出，将在 2025 年达到 4000 亿美元，2026 年进一步增至 5100 亿美元。但短期谨慎态度并不意味着当前情况可与 2000 年互联网泡沫时期相提并论。苏布拉马尼亚姆承认，当前市场的覆盖面以及高估值与 2000 年 “有相似之处”，但她同时指出了几大关键差异：当前股票配置比例远低于互联网泡沫时期；盈利增长为高估值提供了支撑；IPO 规模更小；对未盈利企业的投机热度也远不及 20 世纪 90 年代末。这些差异支撑了美国银行对市场的长期乐观观点。该机构预测，到 2026 年底，标普 500 指数（^GSPC）将收于 7100 点。这一目标在华尔街的预测中处于保守区间，远低于加拿大皇家银行（RBC）7750 点和德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）8000 点的较高预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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