OEXN:黄金支撑区间巩固与市场预期变化

新浪财经12-04 22:47

12月4日，尽管金价尚未重新触及10月超过4360美元/盎司的历史高位，但多家市场机构的估值模型显示，当前水平已接近其合理区间。在全球经济不确定性持续升温的背景下，黄金在多轮震荡后的突破中不断抬升支撑位，这一走势与避险与配置需求增强的市场格局高度吻合。OEXN认为，这种结构性上移的支撑带反映了资金对长期风险的持续定价。投资者普遍期待的“大幅回调”迟迟未出现，主要因为经济动能转弱的迹象正在累积，而这...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251204224808a4cce06a&s=b><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月4日，尽管金价尚未重新触及10月超过4360美元/盎司的历史高位，但多家市场机构的估值模型显示，当前水平已接近其合理区间。在全球经济不确定性持续升温的背景下，黄金在多轮震荡后的突破中不断抬升支撑位，这一走势与避险与配置需求增强的市场格局高度吻合。OEXN认为，这种结构性上移的支撑带反映了资金对长期风险的持续定价。投资者普遍期待的“大幅回调”迟迟未出现，主要因为经济动能转弱的迹象正在累积，而这...</p>\n\n<a 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expectations","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02899":0.9,"00815":0.9,"01787":0.9,"00116":0.9},"content_text":"12月4日，尽管金价尚未重新触及10月超过4360美元/盎司的历史高位，但多家市场机构的估值模型显示，当前水平已接近其合理区间。在全球经济不确定性持续升温的背景下，黄金在多轮震荡后的突破中不断抬升支撑位，这一走势与避险与配置需求增强的市场格局高度吻合。OEXN认为，这种结构性上移的支撑带反映了资金对长期风险的持续定价。投资者普遍期待的“大幅回调”迟迟未出现，主要因为经济动能转弱的迹象正在累积，而这正为贵金属提供稳固底盘。市场押注主要央行将在下周至2026年期间启动连续降息周期，使名义与实际收益率同步下行，并削弱美元的强势。10月金价在冲上4360美元后出现获利抛压，但回调有限，4000美元上方支撑始终稳定。短暂整理后，黄金稳固于约4200美元区间。多项模型显示，在全球债务增长与利率下行的组合下，黄金的表现完全符合逻辑。OEXN认为，这一支撑区间的韧性，反映了长期需求的结构化强化。在关注上涨潜力的同时，黄金的下行空间亦值得审视。理论上金价可能下探3800美元，但模型显示该区域同样具备强支撑，跌破4000美元需出现显著外部冲击。在更极端的空头场景中，政策利率需重新升至5%，而这种情况往往伴随衰退风险升温，使黄金再次成为避险焦点。因此，深度回调难度极高，每当金价构筑新支撑位，新的不确定性往往随之而来，推动下一波需求上升。OEXN表示，这正是黄金屡次回调受限的关键原因。近期，随着市场对政策路径的预期迅速反转，黄金重新获得动能。上月市场几乎完全排除了12月降息，但疲弱的数据使降息概率重新跃升至接近九成。尽管下周会议将决定来年的政策基调，更重要的变量来自主要央行未来的领导安排及其独立性是否可能受到外部干扰。任何削弱货币政策独立性的因素都将为黄金提供更强的结构性支撑。OEXN认为，这类不确定性可能进一步推动多国央行增加黄金配置、降低对美元的依赖，从而强化贵金属的长期价值基础。责任编辑：陈平","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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