华尔街重新审视AI投资：泡沫之争无意义，关键是如何应对投资与变现之间的错位和滞后

华尔街见闻2025-12-04

华尔街正在重塑关于人工智能（AI）的投资叙事。包括贝莱德和美国银行在内的顶级金融机构认为，纠结于AI是否是“泡沫”已无意义，当前真正的焦点应转向如何应对巨额前期投资与商业变现之间的错位与滞后，这一阶段可能给市场带来新的动荡。近日，贝莱德投资研究所负责人Jean Boivin明确表示，在当前阶段，用“泡沫”框架来评估AI投资并无助益。他认为，鉴于AI基础设施建设正以前所未有的规模和速度展开，任何...

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AI investment: The bubble battle is meaningless, the key is how to deal with the misalignment and lag between investment and realization","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":0.81,"BAC":0.9,"AI":0.9},"content_text":"华尔街正在重塑关于人工智能（AI）的投资叙事。\n包括贝莱德和美国银行在内的顶级金融机构认为，纠结于AI是否是“泡沫”已无意义，当前真正的焦点应转向如何应对巨额前期投资与商业变现之间的错位与滞后，这一阶段可能给市场带来新的动荡。\n近日，贝莱德投资研究所负责人Jean Boivin明确表示，在当前阶段，用“泡沫”框架来评估AI投资并无助益。他认为，鉴于AI基础设施建设正以前所未有的规模和速度展开，任何基于历史指标的回溯性评估都是“不完整的”。贝莱德指出，AI领域的资本支出规模巨大，其本身已构成一个宏观经济事件。\n美国银行则提出了一个更具体的警告。其美国股票与量化策略主管Savita Subramanian虽同样否定了“泡沫论”，但她预警市场可能面临一个“空中气穴”（air pocket）。她将其描述为一个资本支出增长超过收入增长的阶段，这种投资与变现之间的滞后，尤其是在电力和基础设施瓶颈的制约下，可能会在短期内动摇投资者信心。\n尽管存在短期风险，但两家机构的长期观点依然乐观。他们认为，当前的AI热潮由真实的企业盈利、投资和生产力增长驱动，与21世纪初的互联网泡沫有着本质区别。\n贝莱德：“AI泡沫论”是一种误导，真正的挑战在于支出与收入的鸿沟\n华尔街巨头正引导市场将注意力从“AI是否是泡沫”的辩论中移开。贝莱德的Jean Boivin在周二的一场媒体圆桌会议上指出，将当前的AI热潮简单定义为泡沫是一种误导。\n他强调，市场中存在着健康的怀疑情绪，“关于潜在泡沫的讨论如此之多……人们意识到了风险”，这与非理性繁荣时期缺乏风险意识的状态截然不同。\n贝莱德在其展望报告中称，AI相关的资本支出雄心是如此庞大，以至于“微观即宏观”。该机构认为，这一投资规模有望推动美国GDP增长持续突破过去几十年来主导的2%趋势线。这标志着AI不仅是一项技术革新，更是一个足以重塑整体经济格局的宏观驱动力。\nAI的宏大叙事背后，是惊人的资本支出计划和现实的物理制约。贝莱德估计，到2030年，全球企业在AI领域的支出计划将在5万亿至8万亿美元之间，其中大部分发生在美国。报告写道，“投资者的挑战在于：如何协调巨大的资本支出计划与潜在的AI收入。它们的数量级会匹配吗？”\n这种“前期投入”模式在带来变革的同时也使其变得脆弱。报告指出了从算力到电网的物理极限，并预测到本十年末，AI数据中心的耗电量可能占到美国总用电量的15%至20%。贝莱德认为，这种支出的前置对于实现最终收益是必要的，但它也构成了投资者必须正视的结构性压力。\n美银：警惕“空中气穴”——AI投资与变现的滞后风险\n美国银行对AI投资周期的下一阶段提出了更明确的警示。Savita Subramanian认为，尽管AI的领导地位不会“不受约束地”持续，但这更像是一次“暂停”而非崩溃的开始。她提出的“空中气穴”概念，精准描述了投资与回报之间的暂时脱节。\n数据显示，这种风险已在资产负债表上有所体现。据美国银行统计，在过去一年中，超大规模云服务提供商（hyperscaler）的资本支出已升至其运营现金流的60%，远高于十年前的30%。尽管这一比例仍远低于互联网泡沫时期140%的峰值，但支出的快速增长不容忽视。该行预测，来自微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和甲骨文等公司的超大规模支出将在2025年达到4000亿美元，2026年将达到5100亿美元。\n今非昔比：为何当前并非2000年重演\n尽管市场广度收窄和估值高企的现象与2000年“有相似之处”，但Savita Subramanian强调了几个关键区别，解释了为何历史不会简单重演。她指出，与互联网泡沫时期相比，当前投资者的股票配置水平要低得多，高估值得到了企业盈利增长的支撑，IPO市场规模更小，并且对无盈利公司的投机行为远不如上世纪90年代末那般极端。\n这些根本性的差异支撑了美国银行的长期看涨观点。该行预测，标普500指数（^GSPC）将在2026年底达到7100点。这一立场表明，尽管短期内存在“空中气穴”的颠簸风险，但华尔街普遍认为，由真实基本面驱动的AI革命，其长期上升轨道依然稳固。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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