中国企业IT支出信心首次全面回升，大摩判断：利好阿里

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“现在敢给IT预算加钱了吗？”——这个让企业CIO（首席信息官）纠结两年的问题，终于有了明确答案。摩根士丹利在近期发布的《中国CIO 2025年下半年调查报告》中抛出了一颗行业“定心丸”：经历关税冲击与通缩压力后，中国企业IT支出信心首次全面回升，2026年预算增速预期直接冲到12.6%。更关键的是，AI不再是“画饼”，而是真金白银的投资方向，阿里凭借云与大模型优势，被点名成最大受益者。看来，中国...

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2025年下半年调查报告》中抛出了一颗行业“定心丸”：经历关税冲击与通缩压力后，中国企业IT支出信心首次全面回升，2026年预算增速预期直接冲到12.6%。更关键的是，AI不再是“画饼”，而是真金白银的投资方向，阿里凭借云与大模型优势，被点名成最大受益者。看来，中国IT行业的春天真的要来了。信心杀回来了！IT预算迎两年首升大摩的调查覆盖了60家年营收超10亿元的企业CIO，他们的预算调整方向，就是行业的“晴雨表”。这次数据里，三个信号特别亮眼：2025年预算“V型反弹”：上半年受关税影响，CIO们只敢给5.8%的IT预算增速，到了下半年直接上调1.6个百分点至7.4%，回到2024年底的正常水平。这是2021年下半年以来，首次在年中出现预算上调。2026年增速“跳级”：CIO们对明年的预期更激进，初步给出12.6%的增速目标，几乎是今年的1.7倍。其中软件领域最被看好，增速预期达13.1%，远超IT服务的8.6%。民企成“带头大哥”：国企和民企今年的预算增速都调到了8.3%，但明年民企将以13.3%的增速反超国企（12.5%）。这意味着金蝶、北森、金山办公这些服务民企的软件厂商，要迎来爆发期。更重要的是，企业的IT投资逻辑变了——过去两年，大家都盯着宏观经济“看天吃饭”，现在44%的CIO把“业务扩张需求”当成预算调整的第一理由。简单说：企业不再为“避险”缩预算，而是为“增长”加投资。企业更爱“买现成”而非“自己造”AI依然是CIO们的投资首选，但和上半年的“狂热”相比，现在的企业变得更理性，这反而让机会更清晰：1. 预算推迟但总量暴增，软件成最大赢家虽然不少企业把首个人工智能项目从2025年推迟到2026年，但钱没省下来：2025年AI预算占IT总支出的比例是7.7%，明年将直接飙升到13%，创历史新高。更关键的是投资结构变了——上半年企业还在疯狂买AI服务器（硬件占AI预算34%），现在转而砸钱买软件：2025年AI软件支出占比冲到46%，明年将达47%，而硬件占比降到28%。这对做AI应用的厂商来说，是实打实的利好。2. 阿里逆袭！Qwen模型追平DeepSeek上半年还被DeepSeek“碾压”的阿里，现在迎头赶上。大摩调查显示：2025年，33%的CIO认为DeepSeek会抢占最多AI市场份额，但比上半年的53%大幅下滑；阿里Qwen大模型的支持率从18%暴涨到30%，稳居第二；看未来三年，阿里直接反超成第一（37%），DeepSeek退到第二（32%）。原因很简单：阿里不仅有Qwen模型持续迭代，还有阿里云做“后盾”——企业用AI时，需要云服务器承载算力，阿里能“一站式搞定”，而DeepSeek更像纯技术公司，这让阿里在企业落地中更有优势。3. 客户服务、营销成AI落地“先头兵”企业不再把AI当“炫技工具”，而是直接用在赚钱和提效上。目前AI投资前三的领域是：客户服务（50% CIO选择）、营销（45%）、供应链管理（43%）。比如用AI做智能客服接咨询，用大模型写营销文案，这些“即插即用”的场景最受青睐。公有云风口再临AI的火爆，直接带火了公有云。大摩发现，38%的CIO计划明年加速迁上公有云，比上半年多了9个百分点；而计划放缓迁移的CIO，从40%降到30%。这波红利里，阿里依然是最大赢家：58%的CIO认为阿里会抢占2025年公有云增量份额，比上半年的47%进一步提升；53%的CIO直接点名，阿里会主导明年的AI云支出。华为和字节跳动（火山引擎）则是“潜力股”：虽然今年只有12%的CIO看好华为，但对未来三年的支持率暴涨到27%；字节凭借短视频生态积累的AI能力，也被视为长期竞争者。大摩看好这三类机会基于这些信号，大摩把中国IT行业评级从“谨慎”上调到“中性”，并给出了清晰的投资线索。民企服务型软件：金蝶（云ERP）、北森（HR SaaS）、金山办公（WPS 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