谷歌与英伟达：谁将赢得人工智能芯片之战？

半导体产业纵横12-02 18:01

本文由半导体产业纵横（ID：ICVIEWS）综合谷歌进入市场并不会损害英伟达的长期增长，反而会极大地促进人工智能的普及。过去两年，英伟达一直是人工智能芯片领域当之无愧的王者。其硬件几乎为全球所有主流机型、人工智能初创公司和超大规模数据中心提供动力。分析师估计，该公司控制着人工智能加速器市场约90%的份额——在未来十年最重要的行业之一中，它几乎完全垄断了市场。如今市场正在发生明显的变化。据报道，...

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首次考虑采用谷歌自研的AI芯片，而非英伟达的芯片。而英伟达的反应则充分说明了这一威胁的真实性。这是对英伟达霸主地位的首次真正挑战。近十年来，谷歌一直在研发自己的AI芯片——张量处理单元（TPU）。此前，这些芯片主要用于谷歌内部，为搜索、Gmail、YouTube和Gemini等应用提供支持。这些芯片在特定人工智能任务上速度更快、能效更高、价格也比英伟达的旗舰芯片更便宜。最重要的是，谷歌并不出售这些芯片，而是通过谷歌云平台出租。这赋予了谷歌强大的优势：它既可以在价格上低于英伟达，同时还能将客户锁定在其云生态系统中。据报道，Meta公司正在探索这些芯片，这无疑是对这些芯片的极大认可。为什么这对英伟达构成如此大的威胁英伟达不仅仅销售芯片，它销售的是灵活性。它的硬件可以部署在全球任何数据中心运行任何主流的AI模型、框架或操作系统环境。相比之下，谷歌的芯片在少数核心工作负载方面表现出色，但通用性远不及其他芯片。但超大规模数据中心不需要通用解决方案——他们需要更便宜的解决方案。电力和计算成本正在爆炸式增长。人工智能数据中心正逼近物理极限。每家大型科技公司的首席财务官都在寻找降低人工智能成本的方法。如果谷歌能为 Meta 节省哪怕 10% 到 20% 的费用，就能带来数十亿美元的收益。英伟达CEO黄仁勋几乎从不提及竞争对手。但近日他对谷歌的言论引人注目。“我们对谷歌的成功感到非常高兴……我们将继续为谷歌提供芯片。英伟达是唯一能够运行所有人工智能模型，并且适用于所有计算场景的平台，”英伟达在X平台上发布消息称。竞争加速了整个人工智能热潮大多数投资者忽略了一点：谷歌进入市场并不会损害英伟达的长期增长，反而会极大地促进人工智能的普及。竞争降低了资本支出压力，减少了权力限制，扩大了能够负担得起人工智能的公司数量，推动了超大规模的创新，并为多个赢家打开了大门。英伟达并不需要90%的市场份额才能继续攀升。即使其市场份额下降到70%，该公司在未来十年内依然能够持续盈利。与此同时，谷歌的崛起验证了整个人工智能理论。这不是泡沫，而是加速发展。而人工智能领域最大的赢家并非芯片制造商，而是那些为基础设施建设提供技术支持的公司。像戴尔、博通、AMD、Celestica、甲骨文和Palantir这样的公司正在悄然构建支撑人工智能加速发展的基础设施。这不是一个“非此即彼”的故事，而是一个“两者兼具”的故事。英伟达的行业领先地位短期内仍将延续，而谷歌正以强劲势头崛起，凭借技术积累与生态布局跻身核心竞争者行列，成为不可忽视的第二极力量。随着头部企业竞争的持续深化，AI 产业链各环节的技术迭代与资源整合速度加快，整个人工智能生态系统将在博弈中实现更全面的升级。值得注意的是，AI 赛道的真正长期赢家 —— 那些支撑数据中心建设、提供底层基础设施的企业，目前仍处于发展初期。这也为投资者指明了未来十年的布局逻辑：既要关注直接引领技术浪潮的行业龙头，更需重视其背后支撑 AI 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